How would a Trump impeachment affect real estate market?

55 Replies

Definitely NOT trying to spark any political talk. Just wondering folks’ opinions on what could happen to the market if the president did get impeached. I live in SoCal and am actively looking for a multi-family investment in LA and Long Beach. Obviously it's impossible to time the market, but a looming impeachment feels like a pretty significant event, so I'm really curious how (or if at all) it would affect things. 

Thanks all!!

It wont affect the housing market at all.

Moderator Note: Political discussions and rhetoric are against forum rules.  Any left v right type stuff will be removed. 

@Ilya Polyakov

Which RE market are you talking about? The LA MSA, New York MSA, Washington DC MSA? There is no one real estate market and if the impeachment occurs it will impact them all differently, mostly likely to a mirror but varying degree. 

Can't imagine a impeachment effecting real estate values much. Presidents come and go. People will always need a place to live. Overnight demand for houses wont drop because of one event. 

Ask yourself, would you sell your property dirt cheap soley because of an impeachment? 

That’s true, at least not directly... but there are all sorts of indirect effects on the economy, no? 

Originally posted by @George W. :

Can't imagine a impeachment effecting real estate values much. Presidents come and go. People will always need a place to live. Overnight demand for houses wont drop because of one event. 

Ask yourself, would you sell your property dirt cheap soley because of an impeachment? 

 

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Originally posted by @Bill F. :

@Ilya Polyakov

Which RE market are you talking about? The LA MSA, New York MSA, Washington DC MSA? There is no one real estate market and if the impeachment occurs it will impact them all differently, mostly likely to a mirror but varying degree. 

House impeachment, no effect. Senate conviction and removal ( which won't happen) no effect. 
Zoltan Pozsar's prediction
that the Fed may "lose control of overnight rates" leading to a vicious dislocation in repos coupled with a paralysis in the FX swap market, many traders who (pretend to) understand the implications of what the former Fed strategist said, have quietly hunkered down and are looking carefully for signs that Pozsar is correct, a worst case scenario that could then lead to a spike in Treasury yields, a forced deleveraging of hedge funds, and a plunge in equities. In short: a stockmarket apocalypse.

Big effect.


 

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@Mark Fries just so we all understand how impeachment works - the President can (and probably will be) impeached but it’s VERY unlikely he’ll be removed from office because it will not get through the Senate (they need 67 votes for removal and the Senate is controlled by the GOP) - not going to happen.

MODERATOR NOTE: Political discussion is NOT allowed in these forums. Posts that argue for one side versus the other have been removed.

This thread is for the discussion of a potential scenario. Stick to that discussion.

If you want to talk about Politics, go to Facebook.

As others have said, there will be no impact.  During the impeachment investigations and hearings, the markets didn't really respond to what was happening during that time.  My opinion that the reason for that was because fundamentally  the businesses in the economy (profits, earnings, business growth, investment, etc) were still on solid ground.  The events happening on capital hill will not impact these business metrics that Wall Street looks for when evaluating a companies worth.  The market does get affected by trade talks between the US and China because the results of those talks could impact the business metrics I mentioned above.

Sometimes Wall Street does get emotional and trade based on those emotions, even though fundamentally, the economy has not changed.  You may see quick spike or dip in the market, but those are usually corrected within a very short period of time.

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