How would a Trump impeachment affect real estate market?

Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2019 · 10 posts · 7 votes

Definitely NOT trying to spark any political talk. Just wondering folks’ opinions on what could happen to the market if the president did get impeached. I live in SoCal and am actively looking for a multi-family investment in LA and Long Beach. Obviously it's impossible to time the market, but a looming impeachment feels like a pretty significant event, so I'm really curious how (or if at all) it would affect things.

Thanks all!!

3 Reply

166 views

Most Popular Reply

Sacha LaCoss

CA · Member since 2019 · 51 posts · 65 votes

In LA I would just expect a massive party lol

26 Reply

See this reply in the discussion

55 Replies

Jump to latestLatest

Sort by

Russell BrazilBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
6y
It wont affect the housing market at all.
Moderator Note: Political discussions and rhetoric are against forum rules. Any left v right type stuff will be removed.
[email protected]301-893-4635 Podcast Guest on Show #192
District Invest Group545 Reviews
Website View Page
20 Reply
Mark Fries
Contractor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
6y
@Ilya Polyakov
It will have no effect because he's not going to get impeached because the republicans control the senate.
23 Reply
Ilya Polyakov
OP
Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2019 · 10 posts · 7 votes
6y
@Russell Brazil But surely there must be SOME effect? Would an impeachment not lead to financial uncertainty and thus some sort of correction? I'm not saying it wouldn't recover, but still?
0 Reply
Russell BrazilBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
6y
@Ilya Polyakov The President was impeached in 1998......nothing happened. The President was just about to be removed from office in 1974 and resigned instead.....nothing happened.
[email protected]301-893-4635 Podcast Guest on Show #192
District Invest Group545 Reviews
Website View Page
21 Reply
Bill F.
Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
6y
@Ilya Polyakov
Which RE market are you talking about? The LA MSA, New York MSA, Washington DC MSA? There is no one real estate market and if the impeachment occurs it will impact them all differently, mostly likely to a mirror but varying degree.
4 Reply
Ilya Polyakov
OP
Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2019 · 10 posts · 7 votes
6y
@Bill F.
LA
0 Reply
Sacha LaCoss
CA · Member since 2019 · 51 posts · 65 votes
6y
In LA I would just expect a massive party lol
26 Reply
George W.
Investor · NJ · Member since 2018 · 869 posts · 921 votes
6y
Can't imagine a impeachment effecting real estate values much. Presidents come and go. People will always need a place to live. Overnight demand for houses wont drop because of one event.
Ask yourself, would you sell your property dirt cheap soley because of an impeachment?
6 Reply
Brock Mogensen
Real Estate Syndicator · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 907 votes
6y
Hard to say the direct effects it will cause. Affordable housing could see a spike in support..
2 Reply
Ilya Polyakov
OP
Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2019 · 10 posts · 7 votes
6y
That’s true, at least not directly... but there are all sorts of indirect effects on the economy, no?

Originally posted by @George W.:
Can't imagine a impeachment effecting real estate values much. Presidents come and go. People will always need a place to live. Overnight demand for houses wont drop because of one event.
Ask yourself, would you sell your property dirt cheap soley because of an impeachment?

0 Reply
Sylvia B.
Rental Property Investor · Douglas County, MO · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6y
@Ilya Polyakov do you mean impeached or removed from office? The two terms are not synonymous.
4 Reply
Account Closed
Specialist · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Bill F.:
@Ilya Polyakov
Which RE market are you talking about? The LA MSA, New York MSA, Washington DC MSA? There is no one real estate market and if the impeachment occurs it will impact them all differently, mostly likely to a mirror but varying degree.

House impeachment, no effect. Senate conviction and removal ( which won't happen) no effect.
Zoltan Pozsar's prediction that the Fed may "lose control of overnight rates" leading to a vicious dislocation in repos coupled with a paralysis in the FX swap market, many traders who (pretend to) understand the implications of what the former Fed strategist said, have quietly hunkered down and are looking carefully for signs that Pozsar is correct, a worst case scenario that could then lead to a spike in Treasury yields, a forced deleveraging of hedge funds, and a plunge in equities. In short: a stockmarket apocalypse.
Big effect.

2 Reply
Pat L.
Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Keith A.:
@Parker Eberhard

Agree...& my money is on a Trump dynasty evolving & that would be VERY interesting !!!

2 Reply
Bryan Beal
Rental Property Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2019 · 115 posts · 264 votes
6y
@Mark Fries just so we all understand how impeachment works - the President can (and probably will be) impeached but it’s VERY unlikely he’ll be removed from office because it will not get through the Senate (they need 67 votes for removal and the Senate is controlled by the GOP) - not going to happen.
3 Reply
Mindy JensenPro Member
BiggerPockets Money Podcast Host · Longmont, CO · Member since 2014 · 7k+ posts · 10k+ votes
6y
MODERATOR NOTE: Political discussion is NOT allowed in these forums. Posts that argue for one side versus the other have been removed.
This thread is for the discussion of a potential scenario. Stick to that discussion.
If you want to talk about Politics, go to Facebook.
[email protected]Podcast Guest on Show #261
16 Reply
Account Closed
Member since 2018 · 127 posts · 106 votes
6y
As others have said, there will be no impact. During the impeachment investigations and hearings, the markets didn't really respond to what was happening during that time. My opinion that the reason for that was because fundamentally the businesses in the economy (profits, earnings, business growth, investment, etc) were still on solid ground. The events happening on capital hill will not impact these business metrics that Wall Street looks for when evaluating a companies worth. The market does get affected by trade talks between the US and China because the results of those talks could impact the business metrics I mentioned above.
Sometimes Wall Street does get emotional and trade based on those emotions, even though fundamentally, the economy has not changed. You may see quick spike or dip in the market, but those are usually corrected within a very short period of time.
0 Reply
Joe SplitrockPro Member
Moderator
Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
6y
As others said, nothing to see here. It is just politics and clear how this will play out. House will vote along party lines to impeach. Senate will vote along party lines to not remove. No effect on the economy.
I think the SEC vote today on changing the definition of accredited investors could have a bigger impact. Any of you following that?
4 Reply
Jennifer Gligoric
Specialist · Member since 2019 · 137 posts · 125 votes
6y
I don't agree that impeachment will have no effect at all, but I doubt it will be in any of the ways most think. The best insurance against ill effects is to do your due diligence now and have enough diversity to ride the wave of change. This is true of any changes except an apocalyptic asteroid hitting the earth. Fortunes are made in times of great struggle just as they are in times of relative stagnation so just use common sense. This sounds easier than it is because you have to be aware of the current climate & laws but not to the point you let "what if" scenarios based in heavy part on the ratings draw of panic / fear headlines. I'm a big advocate of getting one's ducks in order now in terms of asset protection, your business structures, your retirement & your estate sooner rather than later - so that you are prepared way before something might happen.
1 Reply
Tony Antonelli
Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 33 posts · 78 votes
6y
Zero.
0 Reply
Kevin Branin
Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 115 posts · 61 votes
6y
@Mark Fries FYI, house impeaches, senate convicts and removes from office.
0 Reply
Kevin Branin
Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 115 posts · 61 votes
6y
@Mindy Jensen I’ll bet you a free upgrade to Premium it won’t take more than 3-4 more posts before this turns into a toxic meltdown... they’re beginning to pull the control rods out of the reactor.....
2 Reply
James Russo
Member since 2019 · 4 posts · 4 votes
6y
@Ilya Polyakov
I believe the real estate market would be affected if he got impeached because president trump created and continues to create a plethora of jobs. If he were not in office, that might come to a halt, unless of course the person who takes over continues the trend. With the lack of jobs the market would plateau and eventually dip. Meaning the prices of houses would fall. Aka an investors market.
1 Reply
Account Closed
Specialist · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
As others said, nothing to see here. It is just politics and clear how this will play out. House will vote along party lines to impeach. Senate will vote along party lines to not remove. No effect on the economy.
I think the SEC vote today on changing the definition of accredited investors could have a bigger impact. Any of you following that?

Your Comment: "SEC vote today on changing the definition of accredited investors"
First, I never heard about it. It's significant. What is the proposed change?
Also, this:
"Massive... Huge... Largest Ever": Fed Will Flood Market With Gargantuan $500 Billion In Liquidity To Avoid Year-End Repo Crisis"

And just in case that's not enough, the NY Fed's markets desk also added that it "intends to adjust the timing and amounts of repo operations as needed to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation, consistent with the directive from the FOMC."

Buckle Up Butter Cup.

0 Reply
Robert McAllister
Real Estate Agent · Menomonee Falls, WI · Member since 2016 · 54 posts · 45 votes
6y
Investors don't care who's president. They care about making money and helping people. Impeachment won't have any effect on the supply and demand of housing. I'd be more worried about the Federal Reserve.
0 Reply
Joshua Howaniec
Contractor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2016 · 267 posts · 144 votes
6y
This thread is a reminder to me of how grateful I am that political discussion is not allowed on BP. I haven’t been on FB for a while and I am so much less irritated.
Anyway, no. The housing market will not react.
5 Reply

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.