August 2018 Market Report

[David Ivy]

The August 2018 Central Texas Housing Market Report is out from the Austin Board of REALTORS® (ABoR). It was a record-breaking month for Central Texas home sales volume. The five-county Austin metro area posted double-digit gains in sales dollar volume. More homes are entering the market, with new listings up 11% YoY. Overall, August real estate activity provides little evidence that the market is slowing heading in to fall. All signs point to a strong--and likely record-breaking--close to 2018.

However, inventory in Austin remains extremely low at 2.2 months (3.1 months in the Austin metro). Steve Crorey, 2018 ABoR president, points out that, "[T]he gains in housing stock have yet to impact housing inventory levels. After a year of modest inventory gains in 2017, housing inventory growth has been flat or has declined in many local markets throughout this year. This is particularly evident in the Austin city limits, where housing demand is strongest.”

Here are basic stats on single-family home sales for August 2018 for the City of Austin and the greater Austin area:

As you probably know, we're now in a rising interest rate environment:

However, this is unlikely to affect the Austin area market in the near term according to Mark Sprague, Independence Title's State Director of Information Capital: "So far, 2018 has shown the highest number of sales ever for the Greater Austin area and we’re on track to set another annual home sales record this year. Interest rates are expected to go up one-eighth of a point by the end of the year, and another three-eighths to a half of a point next year. Because median household income has increased nationally and locally, rising interest rates are not expected to negatively impact home sales."

[Aaron Gordy]

In Austin, the cheapest new build for houses is priced at 529k on the mls. Its impossible to make that work from the cash flow perspective. Its speculation. Condos are possible though in that price range for newer build but its not going to cash flow unless one does a larger than normal down payment.  The suburbs of Austin are good as Danny pointed out but one isn't going to have the same appreciation more than likely. as the months of inventory and days on market are higher in those areas. Its a tradeoff, imo.