All Forum Posts by: Aaron Gordy

In that same news release that is the basis for this post, it seems. “January showed a monthly increase in foreclosure filings that may in some part be the result of a normal post-holiday catch up of filings,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “It’s too early to know if 2025 will shift from the general 2024 trends of a continued decline in foreclosure activity. We will keep a close eye on the market to see how interest rates, inflation, employment shifts, and other market dynamics impact foreclosures in 2025.”

Is the sky falling? I don't think so. I think that interest rates, inflation, unemployment numbers are some good indicators to be mindful  of. 

If one built an apartment building with huge leverage short term construction loan ratios then the sky is close to falling in the Austin metro for awhile, imo. The lack of new construction and the continued surge in employment growth in the market will balance itself out very soon though. 

@Brad Wright. As the buyer you will have the upper hand with negotiations, presently. If you go with the fourplex option, it is imperative to go with a rock solid property manager as they tend to be a little more complicated than a duplex. Just be careful of the refi rates for your house to make sure that it pencils out as that brings out a great deal more risk since you live there as well. 

What is the capital markets for this type of housing? Are there lenders that will lend on the product at competitive rates that are similar to current 30 yr sfh amortization? Imo, this is the critical element. I don't think that it would be wise for an senior to invest their life savings in a house where there is very little return, if any. It sounds very interesting though!

Hi @Meena Mallik

What kinda deals are you interested in? There is a wide range of sectors within commercial real estate. I am concentrated in the land development sector and multifamily. I have a couple of agents that I sponsor that does land deals for retail development. Feel free to dm me.  

The sky is not falling. I don't think that you should make a long term bet based upon a Reddit post, imo. The latest unemployment for the Austin metro is 3.5% according to Texas Workforce Commission. If one drives around the metro one sees a ton of construction for apartments and other forms of housing and retail just to meet the demand. The metro is growing out. A decade or so ago the metro was far smaller. Now it takes an hour easily to get from one side to the other. 

I will say that the times have changed to a more healthier market. Getting a hundred showings on one house is not the norm like it happened a few years ago. I don't think that its wise to bet against the market continuing its upward trajectory. I will say that if the goal is to beat the steadily normal appreciation then you should do something that forces appreciation with improvements. 

@Kent Ford Yes, Texas is very good for first time home buyers. There are lenders, mostly local in the Austin metro that are doing 100% financing for first time home buyers. That tells me that the lenders have a very positive outlook for first time home buyers. The jobs are plentiful. I don't see anything slowing down anytime soon. In fact, I see the housing market in the metro picking up substantially. 

@Jackie Nyambura Everett

The hill country is a vast area but I am active in the areas off 1431. There are some areas of the hill country that are very difficult to develop though for a number of reasons. Send my direction. Thank you!

I have found some landlords like month to month leases so as to give them flexibility to keep up with the market.  Most landlords prefer long term leases though. If the tenants are in a month to month lease and the landlord prefers it then you don't have to do anything as the lease should renew on a monthly basis, but it really depends upon the existing lease. 

@Ofir R.

I am selling a sfh in the georgian acres area. Gentrification all around.  Its a 4x2 around 1200 sq ft, Big lot.  Same tenants for 7 years. I leased them out when I bought it. They want to stay. Solid tenants. Solid property. Low property taxes.  Wanting to 1031 into 4plex or small multifamily. 

Its simple. Its when I can get a higher rate of return elsewhere risk adjusted. Its a math game that is a based upon your own situation. One can calculate the expected roi based upon cash flows and appreciation and that is fairly easy to calculate. It gets a little more complicated when one factors in income taxes.  Real estate has the 1031 exchange gift and the many write offs that makes it preferable for many people. Its really a math game.