My Brother’s Scared Home Prices Will Drop – What Can You Do to Mitigate That Risk

[Nathan P Tanner]

My Brother’s Scared Home Prices Will Drop – What Can You Do to Mitigate That Risk as an Investor?

Had an interesting conversation with my brother recently — he’s hesitant about getting into real estate right now because he’s worried home prices are going to keep dropping. 

His concern is valid. No one can perfectly time the market, and real estate does move in cycles. But it got me thinking — for those of us who are actively investing, how do you mitigate the risk of buying in a declining or uncertain market?

Here are a few strategies I’ve been learning about (and would love more insight on):

-Focus on cash flow over appreciation – If the numbers make sense today with positive cash flow, temporary dips in value hurt less.
- Buy with equity – Off-market deals, distressed sellers, or value-add opportunities can give you a discount and some built-in protection.  - - -- Use conservative underwriting – Run the numbers with worst-case scenarios in mind (higher interest rates, lower rents, etc.)
- Stick to fundamentals – Strong rental markets, job growth, low vacancy areas — these stay resilient even in downturns.
- BRRRR carefully – If done right, you’re recycling capital and not locking yourself into an over-leveraged position.
- Have multiple exit strategies – Rent it, flip it, sell it wholesale — flexibility is key in uncertain times.

I’m curious — how are other investors thinking about this right now? What advice would you give to someone like my brother who’s nervous about getting in at the “wrong time”?

Would love to hear your thoughts and connect with others who are navigating this market with strategy and caution.

[Doug Smith]

If you look at the biggest historical drop in home prices during the last crash at the end of the 2000s decade, prices bounced back within 6 years. If you bought at that peek, held onto the property and collected your rent, and sold it 6+ years later, you were more than fine. It's those that freak out and panic that 1) lose money and 2) make us that know better a lot of money. Never has there been a time since the Fed has been tracking home prices that you would have lost money if you just held on, took care of the house, collected your rent, and didn't panic. That would be my answer.