Which Areas Will Recover Financially From the Virus First?

6 Replies

I think Texas will be the first market to recover from the financial impact of the virus. Texas is a jobs Tiger.

Then in no particular order, Utah, Montana, No. and So, Dakota and Idaho (because they are not as effected).

Then Metro New York City (even though it's having a lot of trouble).

Texas... oil? What? 

Texas has had their a$$ handed to them by the Saudis and Russians. $21 oil, down from $60 at year end... I'd say no to TX or any other oil state.  Debt burden and massive losses will push a lot of oil companies into BK in 2020. And there may be a global slowdown to cool oil consumption, too;) 

Originally posted by @Chris Martin :

Texas... oil? What? 

Texas has had their a$$ handed to them by the Saudis and Russians. $21 oil, down from $60 at year end... I'd say no to TX or any other oil state.  Debt burden and massive losses will push a lot of oil companies into BK in 2020. And there may be a global slowdown to cool oil consumption, too;) 

 Texas isn't dependent on oil as much as they used to be. We are becoming the tech state with new technology companies moving here all the time. Music is a big industry here too. Medicine, auto, aerospace, construction etc. 

What the big hit will be is the property tax for the counties. They charge on the value of the reserves. When the value goes down so does the tax. Municipalities will be hurting come December. 

@Chris Martin there really isn't "oil states" there are "oil cities". There are a few I can name of right off the bat that have been hit hard by oil prices but cities like Austin and DFW will have little to no harm done by the oil industry.  But I agree @Scott Mac that Texas is a very safe bet to be one of the best states out there to recover quickly from this. 

Originally posted by @Kenneth McKeown :

@Chris Martin there really isn't "oil states" there are "oil cities". There are a few I can name of right off the bat that have been hit hard by oil prices but cities like Austin and DFW will have little to no harm done by the oil industry.  But I agree @Scott Mac that Texas is a very safe bet to be one of the best states out there to recover quickly from this. 

I'm sure you are right about Austin and DFW since they probably don't rely on state resources.

In a commodity bust (oil, timber, whatever) it's generally more the downstream jobs that are put at risk, volume wise, than the commodity industry. I must say, though, I don't know much Texas history of boom/bust cycles. As a state, though, it seems to have a lot of downstream jobs, as per articles like Oil and gas supports 17 percent of jobs in Texas.

Like any other bust cycle, state revenues could be impacted. TX state budget is $126.8B over two years, and oil & gas revenue (2019) was $16.3B or, annualized, 25.6%. Hopefully the price war with Putin and the Saudis ends soon. 

sources: 

New Record: Texas Oil and Gas Industry Paid $16.3 Billion in Taxes and State Royalties in 2019, Most in Texas History

Certifying the 2018-2019 Texas State Budget

@Chris Martin, great visuals with the sources you provided. I hope we all become pleasantly surprised at how quickly we snap back from this. Stay safe.