Originally posted by @Ronald Perich:
@Mark Nolan,
Thanks for the link. The point of my posting this thread was to point out that quite a few people continue to look at employer-sponsored 401(k) plans as being a good investment choice for their retirement money. And almost all of them point to the employer match as being why it is such a good choice.
The math proves it... an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan, even with a huge match, doesn't come close to the returns that a solid real estate investment portfolio will produce over the long term. From what I can see, the tipping point is somewhere in the 12-15 year range.
Using a Solo-401(k) or a SDIRA would be a great way for someone to shelter their REI from taxes and save for retirement.
By the way, I am not suggesting a person yank their money out of the employer-401(k) as a distribution. A loan might be a good option, but go into it with eyes wide-open.
Ok, seeing this false claim once was just another day on BP.
Seeing it twice in 1 post was just another every other day on BP.
But 3 times and I can't sit by any longer. I didn't even look at your spreadsheet, and I can already tell how ridiculous this is.
First of all, the entire premise of your argument is flawed. You take your performance for RE and put all kinds of criteria on it, but compare it to the average performance of the S&P 500. I have done an apples to apples comparison elsewhere, where raw averages show that investing in securities (even when not in a tax advantaged account) will perform better than the RE market as a whole. And if you take the BEST RE investor you know, I highly doubt they have a 57% annualized return over the last 3 years, like Glenview Offshore does.
It's so frustrating when people understand 1 side of an equation enough to tailor it to their needs, and then just throw averages at the other side because they don't have any expertise. The ROTH portion of my old 401k posted a 34% gain last year, that doesn't mean that is the benchmark of 401k performance.
This made me actually LOL
- "All rental cash flow is plowed back into the business (just like reinvesting the dividends/gains received in the 401(k)) to make this an apples-to-apples comparison."
That's what constitutes an apples to apples comparison for you? A true apples to apples comparison would require some criteria on what you invested in. For example:
$50k per door in RE, so lets say you should be investing only in stocks with a P/E of 10 or lower, with generous EPS outlook. Cap rate should be 10% so lets say we should only look at investing in stocks with a 5% annualized dividend yield.
This type of information would at least get your comparison to a somewhat similar place. Lets not forget that in most cases, you can stash tax free (ROTH) money in your 401k. When was the last time you could park money in RE (other than your primary residence), have it appreciate, and then pay 0 tax when you need the money? How sure are you that your local property taxes will stay flat over the next 10 years? And how sure are you that the neighborhood you chose wont go to **** tomorrow and leave you with a D property that you owe way to much on?
All this not mentioning that in the RE scenario, you're carrying approximately $37,500 in debt for every $100 you plan on collecting. So lets see if you buy 1 house a year for 10 years, at the 10 year mark you still won't have paid off the first house you bought. Leaving you somewhere in the neighborhood of $300,000 worth of debt with $1000.00 a month in cash flow? That's if rents in your area hold out or appreciate.
Also when was the last time you were able to immediately sell your RE and use the money to take advantage of another investing opportunity. I hope you plan well, since you'll have pretty high opportunity cost (that's what they call it when your money is tied up and you can't invest in something more profitable than your current asset). Oh wait, that's right, in the RE investors mind, debt is your friend. You can just take another loan to offset your opportunity cost...
And here's my favorite part, where I go off on an insane tangent, these RE investors, who own 10 houses, with mortgages they shouldn't have, will walk away from these houses when they stop being profitable. And when they start walking away, it will drive the RE market lower, which will cause more investors to walk away, which causes people who actually live in houses around yours a considerable deal of grief. And those loans, that these RE investors walk away from, they are probably packaged into a tranche in a CMO somewhere. And when those CMOs go bad no one wants to buy them, and then they become worthless, and then those same CMOs get eaten up by a large insurance company, who sold credit default swaps on those CMOs to banks that bought them. And when enough of those CMOs go bad, banks realize it takes them 30 days or longer to structure these CMOs, so all the mortgages they bought that are still on the books to be securitized are deemed worthless, and get sold off at pennies on the dollar, leaving the owner to deal with an unscrupulous lender who wants 100% payment for a debt that they own for 20% of face value. And because these big banks and mortgage companies were planning on people paying the debt they agreed to pay, they have tons of losses, which weighs on every facet of their business. And to make things better, these banks also have to deal with the widespread economic fallout of a tanking RE market, including people wanting their deposits back.