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All Forum Posts by: Alex J.

Alex J. has started 17 posts and replied 307 times.

Post: Cash flow necessary for long buy and hold?

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130
Originally posted by @Chris Ruud:

@Carlos Powell Just one most likely, or maybe two houses to hold onto for life.  From everything I'm reading it seems like experienced investors are saying that even during the recession their rents didn't go down much.  I can understand a sudden influx of supply (new construction) causing rental rates to fall, but many of the areas I'm looking in are almost built to capacity.  Are there any other risk factors that would force rents to go down significantly over the long term? 

@Thomas S. I appreciate what you're saying.  I'm able to save a sizable percentage of my income that would be a cushion in case something came up, and I guess I've always thought worst of the worst case scenario I could quickly sell the property if I could see financial trouble coming.  Plus in a more realistic scenario, rental rates would go up and within a few years I would have cash flow to potentially cover those costs.

@Alex J.  That's great to hear you've found properties that are cash flowing in LA.  Honestly you're one of the first people I've seen on this forum from LA that is saying that...seems like everyone here just accepts that no cash flow is just a fact of LA.  Are you only talking about MF though?  Or you also get that with SF?  Do you manage those properties yourself?  What is your vacany/maintenance/tenant quality/headache in those lower income areas?  

I was actually calculating maintenance and capex in my original equation too, but just for the sake of argument let's say there's an additional unexpected 100K capex cost somewhere along the way, and let's also assume there is awful appreciation of only 1%/year, and rents rise only 2%/year, while all of my costs follow inflation at 2%/year (That's pretty bad!) but by my calculations in the end I would still profit over 900K even after the unexpected capex cost, with an IRR of over 7%. I'm not saying that's an amazing investment, but I'm just not seeing where the huge risk is. Even if there was zero appreciation, that would be far far away from financial ruin. I still get cash flow after a few years as rents rise, and especially after paying off the mortgage the cash flow would be considerable. I just wouldn't have cash flow for the first few years.

I don't grasp how having immediate cash flow vs having to wait a few years for cash flow makes or breaks a long term investment.  I'm not trying to be argumentative here, just trying to understand.  Maybe I'm just illustrating that my investment objectives are different from a more active or fast paced investor?

Both mf and sf...if I can't get the number to work I pass.  I'm also very selective and do only one or two deals a year.

An example of a deal I did...we bot a house and built a full second house that turned a 6 cap to a 10cap in Canoga Park 91303 area code. We ended up selling it and 1031 exchanging to buy more mf in South la which are generally 6caps. They are "c" neighborhood but it's more like I am investing with the government because of HUD and other programs. In the current environment where there is a lack of yield I'd rather invest there than Midwest or Ohio...etc.. my investment in South la doubled and trippled no diff than the other major parts of LA and has some potential for more upside with the development of Inglewood. That south la 6 cap we added about 80k

As for the logistics...My father in-law and I work together on all the deals from a to z.  I moved to Houston TX in 2009 but invest almost exclusively in Los Angeles all but one duplex is in Los Angeles.  I handle the deal finding...tenant placing and screening, monthly management of needs and calling vendors etc.  It's not too bad when you get systems in place and also train the tenants from the start.  It also allows me to have better margins.  Having a partner helps for Co managing.   We have maybe one month a year when we have vacancy because we stay very competitive on price any do work that's above average for the area.

My most recent deal was in June.  I purchased a house in North Hollywood to either develop or make ready for a developer since I have 3 concurrent development/rehabs right now.

It takes time to find a good deal...a lot of these bp rules won't apply...but I think if it's south la vs Ohio I'll take south la because proximity, familiarity and potential appreciation as a bonus.

I personally want cash flow exclusively because if it cash flows at 30yr then breaking even on a 15 yr will help me get closer to owning out right an that's when I'll be building real wealth

Post: Cash flow necessary for long buy and hold?

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

I am absolutely against the idea.  You need cash flow.  Put more down or keep looking for a better deal or invest in South la long beach...you need cash flow.  Everything I've done in LA cash flows and I don't buy less than a 6 cap or better..it's very hard to find that right now so I try and do deals where I can "add value" like build a second back house or extend the existing etc or buy and remodel and rent higher etc.  

I love south la in the non rent controlled areas... 90044 is a zipcode to consider...it's a rougher part of town but still great value and it's neighboring Inglewood.  The numbers still work there as recent as last year I bot a 4plex for 430k that was an 8cap ...I made two of the units into 2 bed 1 bath and now it's a 10cap.

If you break even or lose banking on appreciation what happens if that never happens? Capex in 30years is certainly going to be required for everyin your property...that will mean at least 100-150k cost in your 30 yr...just my thoughts

Post: Real Estate + Excitement + Upsaling = Discouraged

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

I have never been to a Meetup.  Whatever avenue you decide to do in real estate you need to focus in on it and break down your goals to smaller attainable goals.  Small goals acheived turn into big results

Post: Pro Members: Want to be on the BiggerPockets Podcast?

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

Ok app submitted.... It might be a stretch but I got a few interesting deals Ive done.. Few interesting things I'm tryin... 

All but one deal is in Los Angeles... The portfolio just passed $6m in value...I'm Partners with my father in-law, live in Houston while investing in LA,  all 18 doors are managed by me (i act as property manager)...now im trying to build a larger portfolio of multi family or lower income areas for cash flow . Oh and I have a very demanding full time job as an energy trader at an investment bank.  I had pretty average to below average grades in college with a degree in history and political science... not exactly a traditional finance guy but I think between Trading and real estate I've found a really nice mix of what I love to do..ok enough shameless plugging let's make some deals happen!!

Post: North Hollywood California Development Opportunity, Add Value

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

A picture of the place while we were doing the demo for you to get a sense of the depth.  much more cleared out now.

Post: Duplex Houston Stafford area for sale 2 bed 1 bath, 2 bed 1 bath

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

11904-11902 Tambourine, Stafford - a Houston Texas suburb Zipcode 77477

List price 154,800 or best offer

Tenant occupied in both units, rents $700 per mo per side, both sides are each 2 beds; 1 bath; one living rm; one 12x7 dining area and 1 car garage. Easy access to Southwest Frwy, nice clean duplex, Foundation repaired by previous owner with warranty, roof replaced in approximately 2014.Established investment property, occupied currently by long term tenants. Great investment property in Stafford/Southwest Houston area. No showings until executed contract, please do not disturb tenants.

Monthly expenses are only items such as insurance, tax, repair/maint reserve. Tenants pay for all utilities/landscaping. Major Capex such as Roof, foundation with lifetime warranty, windows, have all been completed.

I am the owner.  Reason for selling:  Raising capital for my other investment projects (development in Los Angeles).  

Please contact me at [email protected] or [email protected] for further detail.  

Property is listed with Janice Poscovsky, Spouses Selling Houses

TREC #0218345

Post: North Hollywood California Development Opportunity, Add Value

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

First time offering on this site.... be kind!  haha

FOR SALE

7629 Ben Ave North Hollywood, CA 91605

CALLING ALL DEVELOPERS!  LOS ANGELES HOUSING MARKET IS RED HOT AND THIS PROPERTY IS PERFECT FOR DEVELOPERS.

Lot size is over 15,000 sqft can build large house, and back second guest house.  Create TWO large houses on one lot.  Other large lot properties in the area have approval to build 3 houses on one lot, buyer to investigate this on own.

This property will sell fast and is only being shown as a pocket listing.  The property was recently demo/cleared out, removed all trees, footing, cars, and all trash left over.  Only front structure left for those who want to do an addition or save one wall for new build.

All interested parties please contact me Alex via email at [email protected]

Post: Looking for Houston Du/Tri/Fourplex Realtor Recommendation

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

ive used stan and jan poscovsky  

they helped me with two deals in houston/sugarland/stafford areas one house and one multi

Post: Stucco Question - Los Angeles Area

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

Everybody in LA is experiencing a short squeeze on labor.  everybody and their moms are doing a project , and there is a shortage of laborers.  some ive talked to say that since theres been a lot more fear for non documented workers getting "raided" that they are not really outside the home depots and there are less available in general as a result.  Whoever is remaining is charging $20+ an hour and the quality of work is not even necessarily good or trustworthy.. when like say 1 year ago it was $10-12 

So the local GC who maybe picks up a guy or two for extra help is aware of this as well and is also charging 15-20% more as well.  

Heres the issue though...Los Angeles min wage is going to gradually rise the next few years to $15hr anyway, so everybody is rushing to get projects done before rates move up but it looks like its happening anyway.  With the biggest input in most projects being labor cost, this is yet another reason why it will stay expensive to build new or even rehab in Los Angeles.

30k+ sounds expensive but i wouldnt think it would be lower than 20k for something like that

Post: Do you buy deals off MLS in Los Angeles?

Alex J.Posted
  • Investor
  • Tarzana CA and Houston, TX
  • Posts 326
  • Votes 130

A deal can be found anywhere it's about making the numbers work not where you find it