Loretta,
My wife and I are in a similar boat and just starting out. We have a significant amount of cash saved up (enough to pay off the existing mortgage) and over 2/3rds of our mortgage paid off (when factoring in what we have in savings. So we're well positioned to start our journey (which I'm actively investigating). Also, about 11 years ago when we got married, she owned a home and I owned the home we continue to live in. At the time we got married we financially couldn't afford to have both homes with a renter in one and have the renter miss a single payment - or move out in search of a new tenant. So for safety we sold the first home.
I'm not a big fan of the HELOCs because of the terms and the interest rates. I'm thinking more long term rather than short term and because of our cash position I'm looking to get our feet under us from that perspective first. If that goes well, then my plan is to refinance our house to take the equity out. This allows us to lock in a fixed long term expense vs. the shorter terms and variable rates of the HELOC. I could be wrong about this, so take that for the grain of salt that it is.
Now - with regards to your questions:
How do I know that the values will keep rising and this risk it worth it.
You don't - it could all come crashing down tomorrow, or it could grow at the rate we are at for the foreseeable future. Things I look at are areas like, current available inventory on the market, new building starts, demand, unemployment and other growth factors in the Parker area (Parker is just stupid hot from what I've seen). IMHO Parker is a good area for continued growth.
The low inventory and numbers trend the right way but how do we even calculate if the risk is worth the potential future equity?
I'm not entirely sure how to approach this - but initial thought would be to assign a value to the pain point taking into consideration of "what if the property suddenly sits unrented for several months" - you could draw out all the doomsday scenarios you can think of and then walk it back.
What would you do?
1. Rental #1 Cash Flow $710 per month - Maintenance as needed (Is there a standard % for this?)
2. Rental #1 Equity = 330-197-47=86K (I subtracted the HELOC on my home and the 1st mortgage on it). Take out about 30K for closing & down payment on the next primary. That would put us at 70% LTV
3. "Turn my current Primary into a rental #2" Cash Flow 3k-2,570 = $430 - Maintenance as needed. It is mortgaged at 90% LTV already.
4. Get a 4.75% FHA loan for the next primary residence with 3.5% down due to high balance FHA loan and Fair credit scores. It would have a 96.5% LTV
I think I could make an argument for any one of these options depending upon what the goals are. Are you looking to do more cash flow?
Regardless - it's a tough call on how to best approach it. I know our long term goals is cash flow. Any equity gains are just funny money until you cash them out in one way or another. And if you pull on the equity string of an existing home, it drags the passive income down because you'll have a higher mortgage to contend with.
Definitely areas of struggle I'm working though. :)