All Forum Posts by: Bryan Noth

@Ryan Estes Property taxes are a considerable line item expense in Texas for sure.  

The term cash flow can misleading.  Every property can cash flow with a high enough down payment.  

For Austin, with typical 20% down on a SFH cash flow is virtually impossible year one, but almost certainly appears around year three. This has been distorted nationally with the above average rent gains. I had rentals in Austin bump to year one positive cash flow with 25% down (I choose this route because it gives a slightly lower monthly payment on SFH investment properties).

For San Antonio, (and many suburbs along the I35 corridor between San Antonio and Austin) SFH can cash flow year one. This may change soon as those median home prices have been growing rapidly.

This of course is all dependent on the numbers each investor runs for Capex, maintenance, PM, vacancy, new lease fees, renewal fees, and so on.

Would be happy to share more insight and details on either market, I have rentals (SFH and MF) in both MSAs.

Free Article link:

https://austin.culturemap.com/…

ABJ link:

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

Another expansion for Amazon in Austin.  This is the third tower in the Domain (aka second Downtown) that the company has lease significant space in and makes the Northwest corridor even hotter.  

Article link below:

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

@Steve R. I agree and also believe the corridor between Austin and San Antonio is primed for continued expansion.  Hays county is the fastest growing by percentage and multiple cities along I35 are also topping growth charts (Kyle, San Marcos, New Braunfels, Boerne).  Texas Census trackers expect the two municipalities to nearly be a single MSA by 2030.  

Designation comes from the National Association of Realtors

• 3-year wage growth (BLS average weekly wage, 2018 Q2–2021 Q2)
• 3-year job growth (BLS nonfarm payroll employment, 2018 Q3–2021 Q3)
• Ratio of the 3-year change in population (2020 vs. 2017) to the sum of housing permits over a 3-year period (2018-2020)
• 3-year population growth (US Census Bureau, 2017-2020)
• Net domestic migration as a percent of population (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020)
• Percent of population 25 to 44 years old (U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019)
• Percent of household with broadband service (U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2019)
• …

Linked article:

https://www.ksat.com/news/loca…

Original article:

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/…

November 2021 Market Update for Austin, TX MSA

November 2021 statistics have been released for the Central Texas Housing market. There was a slight increase from the preceding month and a 29% increase from the preceding year, holding steady with the preceding month’s percentage increase.

The City of Austin saw a change in median home price from $536,000 to $540,000, a month to month increase of $4,000 and a 24% increase from the previous year. The Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area saw a change in median home price from $455,000 to $470,000, for a month to month increase of $15,000 and a 29% increase from the previous year.

The following infographics and data is courtesy of the Austin Board of Realtors:

Housing inventory decreased from 1 month to 0.8 months for the entire MSA. The city of Austin saw a slightly stronger drop down to 0.7 months. That equates to 3 weeks of housing inventory. The five county region saw a 6% uptick in new listings compared to November of the preceding year and a 21% decrease from the preceding month. This may trigger déjà vu for those who watched the Austin market in Q4 of 2020 as inventory diminished and demand for housing only increased. The Austin area recently verified the announcement for Samsung’s $17B plant in the North East suburb of Taylor and other major players such as Tesla have announced aggressive hiring plans for year ahead. It may be prudent to note that Days on Market are up from 20 days to 22 days from the preceding month but this is 13 days less than the region saw for the same timeframe in 2020 and indicates that inventory is moving much more rapidly than it did even just a year ago.

Austin ranked second best performing job market in the nation. A 7% year-over-year increase at 77,300 jobs from October 2020 through October 2021. Some of the major names: Tesla, Apple, and Samsung have all announced plans to hire thousands.  Employers such as Tesla and Samsung will likely have a far greater impact on the economy with the creation of indirect jobs in the region. Chart below from the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics:

A full year end synopsis will not be available until December’s numbers have been tallied in January so this will be the last market update posted in 2021. 

Happy investing and a Happy New Year to everyone.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only, past performance is never a guarantee of future performance.

About 7M SF to be built on 66 acres

Located in North West Austin just adjacent to the Domain and near the FC stadium. This corridor has seen tremendous growth in recent years.  

Article linked here:

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

Interesting note for landlords in Texas (Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas).

Texas Realtors® Website link:

https://www.texasrealestate.co…

Article text copied here:

• the overflow of inland or tidal waters
• the unusual and rapid accumulation of runoff or surface waters from any established water source such as a river, stream, or drainage ditch
• excessive rainfall.

Legislature records link:

https://capitol.texas.gov/Bill...

This North East suburb of Austin has made the news several times this year for development and growth and this article highlights another massive expansion for the city. 

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...

https://www.bizjournals.com/au...