All Forum Posts by: Carlos Ptriawan

In Seller's market, rather than everyone waiting and waiting for the offers, the seller gives potential buyers a dateline when to submit the offer. This is also a technique almost similar like auction process.

These days, almost everyone over here uses final date. Usually, after 1 or 2 weekends of openhouse.

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Quote from @Mike Tashman:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Mike Tashman:

Hi All, when you're doing in-depth market analysis/research for specific markets, what's your go-to for detailed data? I'm talking about a thorough analysis to include economic trends, population trends, crime, rents -- the whole gamut of relevant data for a particular market. I don't mind paying for a market research subscription that's worth the cost. TIA!

Lance's Resiclub

@Carlos Ptriawan Thank you! Worth the $299 price tag, I take it?

If you are big time or institution investor yes …otherwise just Redfin is enough or even realtyhop, but I found Lance analysis is one depth more detailed than Redfin, amazing what small team can do, sometimes I ask him for small feature request.

1 Vote

Quote from @Brian Burke:

Quote from @Amit M.:

Unfortunately LPs, in addition to being in bad deals are also deciding on capital calls. Personally I think more often than not it will be throwing out good money after bad, but seeing which capital call end up saving the day and which won’t will be interesting.

LPs in this position have some factors they can consider when evaluating the chances of a successful outcome.

1. An incompetent sponsor—good outcome unlikely.
2. A loan maturity in the next 3-5 years—good outcome unlikely.
3. Primary financing is bridge debt with a wide spread—good outcome difficult.
4. Capital call just to buy the next one-year rate cap—good outcome unlikely and expect another capital call.
5. Capital call to pay down the loan a little so the lender will extend the maturity out another year—you are back in #2.
6. Capital call is just to plug holes for a year or two and by then the market will come back and we can sell and get all our money back—good outcome not very likely.
7. Competent sponsor, no loan maturity for at least 5 years, not bridge debt with a wide spread, property generally stable, and capital call anticipates several years of liquidity—good outcome more likely than not.
8. Competent sponsor, capital call large enough to completely escape existing toxic loan with cash-in refinance to a lower-balance loan with a long maturity—good outcome possible, even probable, if there is no other “hot money” in the deal such as preferred equity or priority share classes.

There are surely other nuances I’ve missed here, but this is a start.

These are very good lists how LP should quantify the data and risk before even investing. By approaching from the "objective analysis" rather than "who is the good and bad guy", you are really educating a basic investor.

Capital call is a myth/method created by the lender as a temporary measure by the lender to avoid foreclosure.

Nonetheless, these capital call is created because the lender itself is willing to take a such very high risk investment that should not happen in the first place.

A DSCR loan of 0.85 80% LTV should not happen in the first place. In Real Estate you want 10 year fixed debt. Period. Pre-Payment is feature and advantage.

Focus on Risk and not Return. An Apartment investment should be very easy in DD as people always renting.

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Quote from @Mike Tashman:

Lance's Resiclub

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Quote from @Chris Seveney:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

This post has 30+ comments, but has anyone actually roasted a GP yet?

Chris I have list of 25 GP to avoid.

But if I post this I would have 30 people mad at me and maybe the BP CEO too.
Why I shall take the risk ?

That video you shared "no one could see interest rates rising..." Really, hmmm lets print $6T and think that they will stay at zero....

that's the attitude of those gp, just blame the fed for their inability to do basic financial DD.

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Also, if you read the history of a Fund or even a CrowdStreet Report from a year ago, even before covid you can see some asset classes like Hospitality already had trouble even before covid (2017-2021), I think about 10-20% of hospitality deals around these time frame is on trouble.

Post-covid you would see more office syndication gone foreclosure.

For multifamily there was news yesterday that even Invesco is selling their multifamily in Bethesda,MD 25% from their 2016 valuation although they used fixed-debt in 2016. That was crazy we're talking about Invesco here.

You should read NYT article about BlackRock's suspicious NAV valuation.

Cred_IQ reported 50% CRE is on trouble.

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Quote from @Forest Wu:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

This post has 30+ comments, but has anyone actually roasted a GP yet?

Chris I have list of 25 GP to avoid.

But if I post this I would have 30 people mad at me and maybe the BP CEO too.
Why I shall take the risk ?

Feel free to DM - I'll compile a list and start a new post. I doubt I have any stake in any of the GPs you've mentioned.

I will give it to you personally as long as you do not broadcast and posting it
or
ask me for more details about it
or
quote me on these lists.

I don't want to be involved in any legal lawsuit or something like that.

You can also complete your own list by:
1. following every therealdeal article
2. following CBRE/CoStar report
3. Following few names in Twitter
4. Following a lot of LP forum

I used to be curious about these lists too in the past (as I wanna become GP too in the future) but over the years I realized 80% of the outcome of any real estate investment in the past is heavily dependent on market structure and market cycle.

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also i've mentioned in that Ashcroft thread, that some of the bridge-loan lenders have intentionally created conditions where they approve the loan so they can bankrupt the GP/LP syndication for cheaper assets to acquire. Literally in this business, there's no need to become GP/LP, lender can become the GP too if you think about it.

1 Vote

Quote from @Amit M.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

This post has 30+ comments, but has anyone actually roasted a GP yet?

Chris I have list of 25 GP to avoid.

But if I post this I would have 30 people mad at me and maybe the BP CEO too.
Why I shall take the risk ?

Create 2nd BP account and post anonymously;)

i would just dm you the list if someone interested, I don't want to make noise and like this guy is mad

in vimeo.com video:
843372979/8e2e83d257?share=copy

Also if you subscribe therealdeal.com it's kinda like investigative journalism for multifamily, almost everyname that's mentioned there is bad guy lol

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Quote from @Bobby Larsen:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Per Wells-Fargo analysis tomorow, the future is Fed 2/5 Notes yield around 4% so 50-70bps lower than today and it would not be like in the previous 40 years where there would be a huge spike down "reverse V".

So if we assume the Fed Note at 4.25% and healthy spread is 200bps, we expect the Commercial Rate Note to settle at 5.7-6.75% in the long run.

Having said that, if cap rate settles at 6.5-7.0 that's a pretty healthy spread, so I expect the valuation to down 50 to 100 bps from today.

I see lot of "funds" level syndication these days, almost none of them running in healthy financial metrics. Would wait til 2026 for all the mess to stop.

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All Forum Posts by: Carlos Ptriawan

Carlos Ptriawan has started 84 posts and replied 7088 times.

Post: what does offer due by xyz date mean?

Post: Market Data Deep-Dives

Post: List of Syndicators/GPs to AVOID?

Post: Market Data Deep-Dives

Post: List of Syndicators/GPs to AVOID?

Post: List of Syndicators/GPs to AVOID?

Post: List of Syndicators/GPs to AVOID?

Post: List of Syndicators/GPs to AVOID?

Post: List of Syndicators/GPs to AVOID?

Post: List of Syndicators/GPs to AVOID?