Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Carrianne Mucho:
@Jay Hinrichs & @Account Closed (or anyone else who cares to chime in) - What is your theory about the effects of employment statistics on the housing market? We are seeing unemployment numbers decline, hourly wages now increasing at 2-3% and yet the workforce participation rate is only 63%. If another 15-20% of capable adults decide to re-enter the workforce, do you think this will increase demand for housing in spite of increased ownership costs (interest rates)? Do you think this would merely be an offset, or does demand continue to outpace supply? In California, demand is outpacing supply already. Every day, I speak with Realtors who are begging for more inventory.
Hi Carrianne,
I am clueless about your market, but employment is peaking for the Bay. Minimum wage going to $15/hr by 2022 for CA and 2019 for San Jose will really help the lower-end markets. Those 2-4 units in working class neighborhoods should pay dividends in the coming years.
Not sure about another 15-20% of capable adults re-enter the workforce. Demand has been outpaced supply due to the lack of new construction during the Great Recession. A lot of new construction has been higher end multifamily. I don't see how this will help realtors selling more homes.
Here in the Bay, the demand has definitely outpaced the supply although supply is catching up, which has put some downward pressure on rental prices. Also, employment is peaking which means hiring has been slowing down. The reason home prices are still going up is due to the lack of inventory IMO. For homeowner wannabes, it still makes sense to buy once you factored in the MID (mortgage interest deduction) and forced savings. Thus, homes below $800k are still flying off the shelves. In fact, it seems like anything below 1.5M is still hot. For higher end markets such as Palo Alto and Los Altos, sub $2M is still red hot.
Thank you for your feedback on the employment market there as Sacramento usually lags the Bay in both hiring and housing.
We are seeing some of the same things regarding construction supply, although it is finally beginning to pick up. Too many large mcmansions built and not enough middle class homes. Building permit process and costs are excessive, limits what builders can construct to make a profit. At sub 450K, there are multiple offers. 650K+ and there is not as much demand. Approval process takes so long that by the time new projects are approved, they may not be feasible (market cycle).
I agree that we have a supply problem in California; I'm trying to project if the current pace of demand will maintain, increase, or if we will see it wane (then we no longer have a supply problem). crystal ball anyone? ;) I do believe that interest rates will continue to rise somewhat gradually, but this will be offset by loosening of lending criteria.