All Forum Posts by: Collin Hays

About 30 properties. The pace report is reporting reservations as of this date, versus as of this date in 2024.  

Like any investment, the answer depends on the investor's goals. I bought each of my cabins for income and a long-term store of value. I have made purchases in 2005, 2010, 2013, 2018, 2020, and 2021. I sold one fairly quickly for a profit, only because it didn't quite fit my portfolio. On the rest, I was negative cash flow on each for a time. That doesn't bother me, as I am playing the long game.

I could easily sell the rest right now and make a handsome profit, but then my income is gone and I have to replace it. And I get to pay 20 percent capital gains tax plus depreciation recapture.  No thanks.

I look at real estate as a lifetime investment, and hopefully future income for my kids and their kids.

If you bought a cabin last year and already want to sell, you probably didn't go in with a reasonable expectation of the investment.  

I believe this should be in the classifieds section.

 No noteworthy changes in booking behaviors, other than that there's a lot more interest in May bookings this year, and slightly less interest in March bookings.

 Overall, we are pacing up as well. Feb is down, but February is always slow, so I guess context is important.

Doing a bit of elbow grease homework can pay dividends. Sometimes your best choice is the decision not to do something.

Fascinating read. Thank you for sharing!

 I agree on the College Station area. That said, I live in Texas, and I have found that the property taxes and insurance are prohibitively high to make a short term rental work here. Hopefully your results will vary!

 We have some cabins that are in the same shape as yours for March; this is an average of all of our properties.

I get asked fairly often "How are things in the Smokies right now?"  Here is the answer.  Our year actually begins on December 1, because those revenues are not booked until January.  We also have a "Pace Report" (PR), which tells us where we are at in revenues for various months, as compared to where we were exactly a year ago on this date.  

So here are our results and pace report so far:

December (2.5%) actual

January +2.6% actual

Pace:

Feb  (17.56%)

Mar  (11.9%)

Apr +13.4%

May +41%

Jun +7.6%

Jul  +14.9%

Aug  +9.9%

So as of right now, it appears that 2025 will be below last year in Q1, but is pacing to be above last year for Q2 and Q3.  Obviously, things can turn quickly if there is some sort of black swan event (pandemic, war, deep recession, etc.).

Hope this helps you guys!