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All Forum Posts by: Collin Hays

Collin Hays has started 118 posts and replied 2494 times.

Post: The Myth of Cash Flow

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Collin Hays:

I got a chance to read this over lunch today, and it really hit home some excellent points about investing in real estate.  Thought I would pass it along.

The Myth of Cash Flow


Hopefully, I don't come off like a broken record when I say these things. But the investing for cash flow logic was only around for two reasons to put together at 20-25% down-- as it now is, and always will be a function of debt in the deal

1) Centurial---not generational--but centurial issue with physical real estate asset prices.
2) America's desperate attempt to re-ignite inflation with historically, and also possibly centurial if at minimum generational, policy on fed funds rates.

Those two made physical RE have intrinsic properties from 2010-2017. 2-3 years prior and after that it will be less intrinsic but still resemble it, as it fades.

People need to stop thinking this is the norm, this is the outlier. Welcome to the reversion of the mean.

For how to invest in RE, it's going to be inelastic in nature and have real runway moments more often than not in primo areas. Prioritize quality + keep reserves for Opex + capex. Scale is in form of quality equity not nonsense quantity.


 That's some big words. Can you scale it down for me?

Post: Mike's Deal of the Day - February 26th 2025

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521

Nice find! 

Post: Furnishings Tax Question

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521

You can spend from a few thousand to a hundred thousand, depending on the look and feel you are trying to achieve. We manage log cabins primarily, so a used log bed is as good as a new one.  A vintage hickory dining set found on FB Marketplace is far better than a fake set from the furniture store. A gently used Ralph Lauren leather sofa is far better than a new one from Ashley Furniture.  An antique persian rug made of wool is vastly superior to a nylon one from Lowe's.  

We do lots of gathering of nice items from FB Marketplace.  

Post: Pools and hot tubs

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521

We drain our hot tubs between guests. That takes all of the fuss out of it.

Post: The Myth of Cash Flow

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521
Quote from @Michael Baum:
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Michael Baum:

I read it, but I did have some disagreements. I don't like anything that loses money every month expecting/hoping that I will make it up with appreciation.


I don't know that it is "losing money".  A 401K isn't producing any monthly cashflow, yet we dutifully dump $1,000 a month in it for 30 years, hoping there is a pot at the end of the rainbow.  Never think twice about it.

If we are making some or all of a mortgage payment for a few years on a vacation rental, it's only the interest that is lost - the rest is paying off the asset, all while the asset continues to go up in value through the years.

I hear ya man, but I want something that is flowing positive in addition to any appreciation. Right now there are areas of the country that are slowly depreciating at a 2.5% rate. You just never know!

 You are right. I bought my first cabin in 2005. Negative cash flow for several years. Then the financial crisis, and the value of it dropped in half. But here I am, the thing is paid off and lots of cash flow, worth 3X what I paid.

Post: The Myth of Cash Flow

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521
Quote from @Michael Baum:

I read it, but I did have some disagreements. I don't like anything that loses money every month expecting/hoping that I will make it up with appreciation.


I don't know that it is "losing money".  A 401K isn't producing any monthly cashflow, yet we dutifully dump $1,000 a month in it for 30 years, hoping there is a pot at the end of the rainbow.  Never think twice about it.

If we are making some or all of a mortgage payment for a few years on a vacation rental, it's only the interest that is lost - the rest is paying off the asset, all while the asset continues to go up in value through the years.

Post: The Myth of Cash Flow

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521

I got a chance to read this over lunch today, and it really hit home some excellent points about investing in real estate.  Thought I would pass it along.

The Myth of Cash Flow

Post: Problem with leaky windows on newly built airbnb investment, bad construction co.

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521
Quote from @Michael Baum:

Hey @Sara Kumar so this is a somewhat frequent issue but it is fixable.

There is no one I can recommend but you should be able to find a company that can solve this issue in Nashville.

I don't think you need to do all new windows. Each window can be removed and update flashings and membranes can be installed, caulked and all the trim reinstalled. Pretty easy job but it is time consuming.

I had this issue in my shop window at my primary home. I ended up pulling the window, installed a plastic window sill pan and adhesive flashing plus I added a L flashing on the exterior of the trim along with fully re-caulking the whole thing.

That fixed it and it has been dry for the last 4 years or so and we get a lot of rain here in WA.

I am not a professional but a competent DIY guy and it took me about 4 hours all said and done minus paint touch up. I would guess a pro would take 2 hours per window or so.

 It might cost what the lawyer would charge to fire off a couple of demand letters.  The OP hasn't responded to anything. Maybe (s)he just wanted to blow off some steam.

Post: What factors do you use to hold, adjust, or sell?

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521
Quote from @Travis Timmons:

There is the business side - evaluating return on equity, but it's also okay to get a little emotional. The "How much do you like the property?" question matters to me...especially for STR and MTR. They are furnished and it is likely that we'll use them from time to time. If owning them makes my life better by providing a free vacation, then hold on for the long term


At some point, I discovered that if I stay there when it could have been rented, it isn't free.  ;)

Post: Problem with leaky windows on newly built airbnb investment, bad construction co.

Collin Hays
#2 Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions Contributor
Posted
  • Property Manager
  • Gatlinburg, TN
  • Posts 2,530
  • Votes 3,521

I'm not sure I understand correctly.  Are these windows Pella?  Are these casement, single hung, or double hung?  Wood, fiber, vinyl, or aluminum? If they are Pella, I would have a Pella rep come out. Pella has a reputation for standing behind their products.  If it's a membrane, seems like the entire window isn't sealed correctly. That's an easy fix. But the Pella rep will know. I doubt Pella windows are failing. They are legendary, and expensive.  You just have the seal around the window and the window itself. If the window is sealed correctly, and the window is of decent quality, I'm not sure what else could be failing that would make it leak - it's not that complicated.

On the other hand, if these are builders grade windows, they could have slapped anything in there, and the windows could indeed be failing. Some of the windows builders put in houses are just atrocious quality, but many buyers haven't the slightest clue.