All Forum Posts by: Collin Hays

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

A new book cause the old methods don't work no more?

As you have pointed out, there was a brief window of market imbalance which allowed some fortunes to be made.  Things went parabolic, and when you asked the experts when it would end, the answer was “never…it’s different this time.”  

When you hear that phrase, it’s time to do something else.  

I would pause if they were considered the "experts".

You are absolutely right. To add to it, books are written in a period of time. They don't evolve, for something to need to be re-written in 3-4 years or under though, really questions the credibility of the angle. Re-written every 8-10 years is more about right. 12 + definitely needs it.

Food for thought for people that want "expert" opinions.

A new book cause the old methods don't work no more?

I've read a lot about house rules and there seems to be two paths - only posting simplified/abbreviated rules on the respective OTA, or having more detailed rules sent out and approved.  Curious what the consensus is.  I'm in a vacation market.  Thanks

@Chad Martin I agree with the previous comments that 2020 has seen unprecedented demand, and it is not likely to subside any time soon. I still believe there is pent up demand for STR from people being in their homes and not flying. I can also attest to prices going through the roof. I am in Frisco, and the lowest listing right now is $1M. That is a lot of rental nights!

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Quote from @Michael Baum:

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Quote from @Michael Baum:

I read it, but I did have some disagreements. I don't like anything that loses money every month expecting/hoping that I will make it up with appreciation.

I don't know that it is "losing money".  A 401K isn't producing any monthly cashflow, yet we dutifully dump $1,000 a month in it for 30 years, hoping there is a pot at the end of the rainbow.  Never think twice about it.

If we are making some or all of a mortgage payment for a few years on a vacation rental, it's only the interest that is lost - the rest is paying off the asset, all while the asset continues to go up in value through the years.

I hear ya man, but I want something that is flowing positive in addition to any appreciation. Right now there are areas of the country that are slowly depreciating at a 2.5% rate. You just never know!

 You are right. I bought my first cabin in 2005. Negative cash flow for several years. Then the financial crisis, and the value of it dropped in half. But here I am, the thing is paid off and lots of cash flow, worth 3X what I paid.

To your question, to Michael's point about depreciating real estate and to your point about this 3x. This is what I mean that real estate is inelastic in primo areas.

Real estate isn't about the $117/mo it nets after expenses or whatever nonsense folks worry about. Real estate got the early fools in based off that initial cash flow; they're no genius, they just gravitated to the lowest hanging fruit for money. That happened to be the inflection point of low rates + phys RE pricing reset. Now, we're back to normalcy in rates, less normalcy in supply(in key areas) and inverse(in dreadful areas).

Invest  prudently and in quality. Risk is what you pay, not always just what you buy.

No, we have used inflatable mattresses in a pinch and they last about a week.  I would expect the same for a hot tub.