All Forum Posts by: Don Konipol

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Mark Cruse:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Mark Cruse:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Mark Cruse:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Mark Cruse:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Mark Cruse:

I'm not sure how many are being laid off in the DMV but depending on how many, how could it not lead to a barrage of negative impacts? This region is heavily drenched with federal employees. Aside from multiple people slipping into anxiety, misery and depression, it can clearly lead to a substantial degree of foreclosures. With a very high costs are so many are stretched to the limit. Knocking their livelihood out from under them with no notice is not only demonic and cruel, but t creates chaos. 

Are they not getting a severance package .. I seem to think i read that .. And layoffs happen in the private sector all the time.. I mean look at Intel.. my daughter works or did work there for 22 years .. and then poof they layoff 15k employees .. how is this any different.. If these folks have skills and work ethic they will end up employeed start a business or some other Venture. My Daughter got head hunted and never missed a day.. She actually got a HUGE promotion on the  Intel spin off division that left Intel.. But Yes if you come to work one day and your pay stops that day with no severance and have to go on unemployment ( if they are allowed unemployment) and food stamps and whatever other social programs while they get new jobs ? 

 Not sure where you heard any notion of severance package. Many are not even sure if they will get paid anything. The IRS employees who signed up were told they can't leave until May.  I don't know all the dynamics with your daughter so I can't compare. No one knows what will happen in the DC region, but applying logic and observing past trends, if a significant number lose their jobs with zero notice, it most likely will trigger foreclosures. DC is very expensive and so many of these workers live check to check even though they make decent money. That is reality. I hope it doesn't but clearly it could be the case. I believe there will be major market decline due to other things, but I hope not. 

from what I have read and of course Media bias is slanted one way or the other.. Those that are in their probationary period  IE not yet fully vested if they are not signed on then they are terminated just like anyone else would be if working in the private sector.  Then those with tenure but choose not to go to the office can take the buyout which includes the severance. 
I mean companies layoff folks all the time.. why is this any different especially with how un efficient government is.. I mean I work with these folks I understand the difference between private sector and govmit employees.. My bank a few years back was bought by a bigger bank and same thing happened to alot of the employees .. One day without even knowing the bank was for sale.. the next day they are notified the bank sold and the new bank is bringing in their own people.  Its just the risk people take when they work for any other company other than themselves.. WE see it on BP all the time..  Folks talking about how much they hate their job I am sure their employers would love to know their real feelings. Will see how it all shakes out.  I also wonder how this is going to affect Section 8  you know those with 100% vouchers that basically never work or will never work.. I can see govmit making a condition that tvhey must try to get employment at least. 

 There is no severance of any kind period. I have an idea which news slant you are listening to in order to hear something like that LOL.  In firing people on probation, it tends to play out much different under normal circumstances.  I have never heard of mass firings done in the most chaotic and incompetent way. People are being fired for sport as though it's some pleasurable reality show game. People are devastated with some on the verge of suicide. Thousands of people are having their lives all out destroyed, and a cult is cheering their leaders as though it's some Olympic game in the Roman Coliseum.  People have relocated from across the nation for some of these positions and have nowhere to go or nothing to do. People have mortgages, kids in college, caring for elderly parents or kids with special needs/ Many of them now have no idea what life is brining for them in the near future. This is funny and cool to one side until members of that side get impacted. This is what's happening now. For them, it's not some nonchalant that's how it goes element. Most only assumed it applied to a specific demographic of society so it would be seen as more humorous or acceptable. Al in all, its relative. Either you feel its ok and no big deal or you recognize the pure degrees of despicable disgust.  There has already been one suicide of a grade school little girl due to some of this demonic madness. I don't know what else to say. Overall, it's a very great chance of there being mass foreclosures and like I said, I would not be surprised of the market having devastating down turns. I hope not. 

"On Wednesday, a federal judge ruled in favor of the Trump Administration by restoring the president’s offer of an 8-month buyout for all federal employees if they agree to resign."

"Due to the delays in the program’s expiration date as a result of the legal challenges, over 75,000 federal workers were able to accept the offer."

 i know this. Is there a point you are making? 

Hmmm, you said "there is no severance of any kind period" and that just isn't true.

You should be happy anybody is even reading tribble like that. ;-) (Tribbles are a fictional alien species in the Star Trek universe)

 If you all are going to repeat or believe whatever hannity tells you, you should understand what you are repeating. They were given a choice; either sign up for fork in the road in a few days which is a resignation, or risk getting fired. The only thing they get is their pay for a few months while they are not working. They get paid until September (if you believe that). If that is your description of a severance package its really nothing more I can say. For the IRS people who signed it, they were told they can't leave until May so their so-called severance packages are very limited. Also, the government is not even funded so most think they won't get paid for that time anyway. The king will just say "my bad, we have no more money". Again, the one side thinks it's funny until it hits them. Those right-wing legislators are catching hell in their districts, so we shall see. If WMAL told you there is something else which you deem a severance, they are lying. You are talking to someone here on te ground who is directly looking at what is going on and knows the people impacted. 

When you say "Also, the government is not even funded" I guess you don't realize we are still on Biden's budget until Sept 30 2025. Federal Budgets go From Oct 1 to Sep 30 of the following year. Trump's doesn't begin until Sept 30, 2025.

I understand you have your strong biases and have Trump Derangement Syndrome, for reasons I don't understand,

but I though you should know about the USA's fiscal year, so you can at least make a coherent argument. You're welcome. 

"I understand you have your strong biases and have Trump Derangement Syndrome, for reasons I don't understand, "
 

I'm beginning to like you a lot more, Ken!

 Eric, thanks for providing your input; the fact that you were a professor adds to the value of your statement.  Can you explain a little further or expand with more specifics? As I mentioned I finished my post graduate education 50 years ago, so my experience may not be so relevant in today's world, with so much of the information we received in college courses available on line for free.  I am very interested in your "take" on the subject. 

Drew, you seem to look a little young in your photo - LOL.
I guess everyone’s experience is different.  And since I finished school 50+ years ago, mine may have lost relevance.

But, my experience differs.  I actually feel like I learned a lot in college that would have taken me 15 years to have the opportunity to learn “on the job” IF I was even able to obtain the position to enable me to learn.  Further, not only did I learn numerous concepts, techniques, strategies, principles, etc that I used in my business career, but I still do so today.  For example, Almost every day I perform a “risk adjusted return” analysis on potential debt and equity investments we’re contemplating.  The type of analysis I run is a modified risk adjusted return analysis based on an analytical technique taught to be in an advanced finance class by a Professor long since retired.  I find that other formulations of the risk adjusted return analysis either (1) are too simplistic (typically the ones available through an internet search or (2) are so complicated and require so exactly an information input determination that to successfully use requires an advanced degree in statistics or analytics (usually ones taught in “top ten” college courses or (3) are so poorly developed that they can’t be relied on within 3 standard deviations from the mean.  

The above is one specific example.  If you mean that a degree in statistics or”gender studies” may not be useful in a career as a sales representative, you might be right.  However, I’m pretty sure obtaining a degree in engineering is pretty useful for someone who is an engineer and having a degree in accounting and passing the CPA exam would be useful for someone in a career in public accounting. 

Further, it seems to be popular for a segment of the population to “bash” formal education.  And there are a million legitimate reasons for doing so.  College tuition on the US is too high by a factor of 2 -3; not because the government doesn’t subsidize it, but because 60% of the cost is for the college “social experience”, not education; Professors salaries for the textured ones have skyrocketed while class load has shrunk; and tremendous debt is piled on for “questionable” programs of study.  However, just as a new real estate agent/broker will acquire a solid basic education in real estate principles, real estate law and real estate finance by studying and taking classes for the licensing exam, other careerists will have two legs up by spending time acquiring knowledge before embarking on paid working career. 

Anyway, that’s my story and I’m sticking too it! 

1. It’s too early to tell how things will turn out - sometimes the OBVIOUS turns out wrong

2. Builders are often times caught on the wrong side of the equation - same as everyone else.  Especially public companies.

There’s been lots of good posts on this thread, including many opinions I don’t NOT necessarily agree with.  But, I respect those opinions, and although my experience may differ from those posters, who’s to say who’s right or wrong? 

My opinion, that most of these marketing company produces programs, whether we want to call then educational, mentorship, counsel, advice or whatever are CRAP, and possibly dangerous, is based on my experience, knowledge, and observation over a 45 + years real estate investing career. 

Please allow me to relate a couple of real estate educational experiences I thought were good - great, and a few more I thought were crap.  While these examples are old, I believe that the pronounced differences are even greater today.

1. The 3 real estate courses taught by legendary Professor Pearson I took as part of my MBA program (electives) at the University of Michigan.  Real estate principles, real estate law and real estate finance.  Laid the foundation for my real estate investing, brokering and lending career.  I still refer to concepts I learned 50 years ago to this day.  Rated Very Good.

2. Mentoring by Jimmy Napier. Purchased his “books and tapes” and attended 2 of his workshops.  IF you did all this, for a total cost of LESS THAN $750!, you could call him with a question anytime, and HE HIMSELF would get back to you and answer any question.  If you happened to be in Jimmy’s part of Florida, and he was home, you could go over to his house, where you’d have a beer with him and personally learn “working a note” , “using recreational lots as down payments” and “real estate exchanging” right at the “masters” feet.  I did this and Jimmy and I became friends, sometimes travelled the “guru” circuit of those days together, and I stayed at his house and he often stayed at mine.  Value? - PRICELESS

3. Courses for real estate brokerage licensure in Texas, New York, Arizona, and Florida.  Each taught the foundation of principles, law and finance. Good. 

4. My father became interested in real estate investing, and rather than my tutoring him, I suggested he take the Nickerson - Lowery course/workshops.  Bill Nickerson, who wrote the first book ever targeting small real estate investors and small deals (How I Made $5 million in Real Estate in my Spare Time) was a guy that was the u;to age straight shooter, told you the good, bad, and ugly - NO PUFF.  Albert Lowery was a student of his who teamed up with Bill to start and promote these seminars/workshops.  Well, I didn’t realize it at the time, but the name of the seminars was changed from Nickerson - Lowery to Lowery - Nickerson. My father and I attended the workshop, and the entire 2 hours was spent providing only “teasers” and using high pressure tactics to upsell to their (quite primitive at the time) mentoring program.  But what the hell, we bit.  And that’s when I knew Nickerson was no longer in the program.  The entire teachings had gone from Nickersons conservative but a cash flowing small residential property, hopefully for 10 -15% below market, do immediate repairs, then slowly over time improve the property and raise rents, either refi cash out or trade tax free for a larger property. Meanwhile pay little or no taxes utilizing depreciation. The new teaching were something like 50 ways to swindle a homeowner out of their equity; search there garbage to find bank statements indicating how desperate they are; trash talk the property telling them no one except you would buy it and low ball them; have an associate or 2 go by, look at the house, and point out structural deficiencies (just make them up even if they don’t exist).  I called Bill Nickerson to inform him about what Lowery was doing - he told me that’s why he left.   unfortunately, the way their deal was structured Nickerson was on;y being paid for his name and for his teaching, the company was actually owned by Lowery, financially backed by the early version of the Provo Utah real estate marketing company.   Value - Horrible.

5. I was asked to be a guest speaker more than a few times for a mentoring program out of Houston/Dallas which name  I am not at liberty to reveal for legal reasons.  The program literature seems pretty good, and the principles seemed to be teaching solid principles, strategies and techniques.  After one of my talks, some students, who had paid a significant amount for the top tier memberships, asked if they could buy my dinner.  Never one to pass up a free meal, I accepted.  After dinner, I questioned the investors as to how they rated the program, and successes or failures they had, etc.  I was initially very pleased to learn that all had been able to purchase multi family properties; I was not to pleased to learn that they all “wanted out”, but felt they were “upside” down and would have to take a loss.  Apparently, the guru had been selling the ownership of these high cash flowing properties as a “absentee” lifestyle, travel 3 1/2 weeks every month and so basically bookkeeping the other 1/2 week.  The reality was that to obtain the projected cash flow the investors needed to purchase the type of properties where the transient tenants paid weekly.  Collections, drive by shooting, spousal abuse, police presence, we’re all an ongoing problem.  Not only couldn’t the investors hire management for the promised 8% of gross, they couldn’t get management to work for 25% of gross!.  All were burnt out, getting calls from police, tenants, neighbors, all hours of the day and especially the night.  Years later it was revealed that the guru had never disclosed the fact that he was getting kickbacks from the recommended lenders, brokers, maintenance contractors and others he insisted the program participants use.  Rating - Mediocre. 

We are using the term mentor, because that is the term that the gurus selling their training and ongoing “relationship” use.

Let me first say I’m respectful of your opinion.  

However, I don’t understand what you don’t “understand”.  To me it’s pretty obvious.  I see a failure rate of 90% plus in some of these programs, as defined by the “student” not meeting their goals and expectations.  I see people with no capital told they don’t need any capital to succeed in whatever endeavor the mentor is selling; usually some version of flipping, which the incorrect term “wholesaling is now used.  Every successful ‘wholesaler” I know has (1) tons of experience in real estate (2) knowledge of real estate principles, law and finance, and (3) enough capital to spend $10,000 monthly on marketing.  The “students” in these programs, for the vast majority, have none and receive none of the above base requirements for a successful entry into the field. I see people without capital being encouraged to increase their credit card limits to incur  $20 -40k debt which they are told they’ll “earn back” in the first one or two deals they do.  I see people lead to believe they’re “training” to be real estate INVESTORS, when in actuality they’re being taught to perform a sales type position.  I see people without capital no experience or capital being taught to “help” desperate homeowners by tying up their property in a contract they have no way to successfully close without finding someone to pay more; costing the homeowner behind on their mortgage payments to lose valuable time that can easily lead to foreclosure; I see a program taught to students to take over a property ‘subject to”, leaving the seller unable to qualify for further mortgage financing, responsible for a loan secured by a property he no longer owns, and all held together by someone with 0 experience, limited or no capital, and no liability.  I see programs/techniques/strategies being promoted that were rendered obsolete by legislation 15 years ago and which there’s almost no chance of being able to pull off.  I see people without”mentors” who have NEVER had any success with the strategy they’re teaching or haven’t had any success in real estate at all, or have a history of failure often with multiple lawsuits and bankruptcy filings acting as “fronts” for marketing companies out of Las Vegas and Provo, Utah utilizing phone boiler room operations.  I see mentor programs having “personal real estate advisors” populated not by experienced real estate investors but by salespeople for these programs that didn’t make the grade as a salesperson, reading from prepared scripts being passed as individual advice.  

so, not ALL these programs are this negative.  There are some solid ones being offered.  But my experience and perception is that the majority of the programs out there contain many of the negative attributes I mentioned.