MikeOH,
Just like you said I can't count a house that I have owned for 2 years, you can't count my current 'vacancy rate'. One year ago, I was 100 percent rented except the commercial property. Two years ago I was 100 percent rented including the commercial property. Three years ago I was 100 percent rented including the commercial property. Four years ago I was 100 percent rented including the commercial property. So just going back 3 years, your 33% drops to 11% and 4 years drops to 8%.
Remember, I have owned rental property since 1979.
It is just like my house in Orange County, CA. I just spent around $8,000 on repairs after a very sloppy tenant vacated. A person sees that and says, "Rental Property is a bad investment." It rents for $2,000 a month. Therefore, my repairs alone are 33% of my gross income, except that it was vacant for 3 months this year. This makes my repairs 44% of the gross income this year. But here is the "flip side". The sloppy tenants moved in, in 2002. Over seven years of $2,000 a month with minimal repairs. As an investor, do I look at the $8,000 spent this year, and look at my 33% vacancy factor this year? Or do I spread it over 10 years to get an average?
But here is an important lesson for EVERYONE. I own 10 houses in the Fresno/Visalia area of California. Bought all of them in the 1980s, all of them in the 50K to 70K range and they rented in the 700 to 800 range. Things were going well UNTIL the Property Management Company was sold to a new buyer, about 3 years ago. Monthly statements started arriving later and later. Section 8 rents were not being sent in a timely manner. Then last year I gave them ultimatum to clean up there act or I would fire them. It got worse so I fired them in January of this year. And of course, the new company I hired was just as bad, so I had to fire them last month. Of the ten properties, five were vacant, 3 from last year. I hired a new management company and they had 2 of the vacancies rented in two weeks. Plus, they only charge $50 a month no matter how much rent is collected and they don't charge extra for having to rent, just the costs of advertising. The moral of the story: Your management company is the most important issue when it comes to investment real estate. They can make or break an investment.
There is no doubt that the last 18 months have been rough. Bad economy, bad management and a little bad luck. But it is my belief that now is a great time to start picking up some really good bargains. More due diligence is required, and if you can find a "2%er" that you don't need to use a gun to collect rent, it demands some serious consideration. If you can find a "1%er" that is in prime condition, has a tenant already in place and offers the opportunity for better than average appreciation, it too demands serious consideration.
It is similar to the "Stock Market" game. How many of us wish we had bought Wells Fargo earlier this year for 7-8 bucks? It closed yesterday above 24. Or even GE when it was 6 bucks, today it is over 12. Fifty cents on the dollar for a good home that needs moderate repair. Eighty cents on the dollar for a prime house with good potential for appreciation. Twenty five cents on the dollar for, well, you know.
I want to thank Eddie, MikeOH and the other posters, I am learning so much from you guys. And I still have a lot more to learn.