@Brian Burke @Greg Dickerson great discussion so far gentlemen. Sorry I'm late! ;)
Glad we're not reliving 2008 again! Thankfully, I think the Fed and other central banks have a much better playbook this time. It WILL cause some higher inflation down the road but that's what is needed. :)
Markets: I think we're painting too broad of brush strokes here. Real estate is still hyper local. Coastal gateways will soften (some by a lot) while many other areas of the country will continue to grow by 1 to 3%/year simply because they didn't boom (so they won't bust either).
Midwest: so far so good in our markets here in Indianapolis and surrounding tertiary cities. In the B+/B++ range we're seeing low to mid 90% rent collected. Many residents are working from home and others are getting healthy unemployment checks. In our markets we're still evicting. Thankfully, shelter comes right after food and water so most are paying. It will however be interesting how cash flow is affected in the short run.
Investors: Our higher net-worth individuals and families are looking to re-balance their portfolios more heavily towards alternative assets (Income Property, Private Equity, Venture, Gold, etc), while what I would call our "retail LP's (net worth sub 5m) are getting more skiddish. Interesting enough I'm seeing my age cohort (late 30's through 40's) "high earners" pile in.
Deal Distributions: Many of our assets will distribute. Some of our lower end communities will conserve more cash to be cautious. Many of our deals are HUD financed (more defensive in nature) so there's a lot cash in reserve thankfully.
Deal Flow: seems to be picking up but we'll see. We've got a couple interesting deals in the pipeline that came to us direct. 3 months ago they'd have traded higher on the open market. The fed keeps bailing out weaker players. I'd like to see some strong hands take some weak hands in my own local game of real estate but I'm not convinced. The stimulus may greatly reduce the amount of opportunistic deal flow. Too many dollars will still be chasing yield.
Syndicators: There will be less of them in the near future. Strong operators will be key in achieving alpha returns. Market share for newer promoters without in-house management teams will be scarce.
Some Macro Thoughts: It's an exciting time to be alive. Globalization is being dismantled in favor of "America First" policies (*personally not a globalist or a nationalist. Just seeing the world for what it is"). This mega-trend started before CV19 and now it's simply speeding up. The US and "Fortress North America ((Canada, US, Mexico)You heard it here first)" will dominate the next several decades if not longer. The US economy will grow again as global supply chains continue to on-shore. North American dominance will be built on Land, Resources (Food, Energy, Water, etc), People, Tech, Medical Innovation and Infrastructure.
Interest rates will stay low for another decade and so will cap rates (albeit with some rise in riskier asset classes like retail, hotel, office). US Safety and quality will continue to attract huge amounts of capital keeping a governor on rates.
When inflation returns landlords will raise rents even more.
And a game as old empire will continue...
