All Forum Posts by: Jason Hartman

@Debra Orringer

it's a worthwhile question to ask.  it's definitely a different environment than it was 5 or 10 or 15 years ago.  with prices higher, rates higher, and more demand for both primary residences and investors, it's more difficult for new investors. you can't just put 15-25% down on any property anymore and get 40% appreciation in a few years and refinance at a lower rate.  it's not happening.  you have to be more conservative and more targeted (unless you are a HNWI with unlimited funds.  if so, just buy in a great area and wait 10+ years.)

primary buyers and investors seem to be competing a lot for the same inventory.  that is bananas.  maybe extra bananas.  

@Mike Dymski nailed the population question.  The population in the US is not declining overall.  In some counties and markets it is; in others, it's not.  Jason Hartman has a lot of good content on this - you can find his videos on YouTube.  household formation is likely to continue healthily until 2035-2040, even if it's fewer people per household, those households want to own in good areas.  that will keep demand for quality properties high.  after that, it depends on immigration as Mike stated.

@Eric Bilderback

the short answer (or at least my own personal answer) to explain the decline in fertility is... it's complicated, and I probably don't know all of the factors behind.  i think both parties have contributed.  

and the apolitical, practical point i was trying to make was that, regardless of why, it will probably lower demand for real estate in the US, but not for another 10-15 years. 

as Jason Hartman points out (again, I don't agree with him on everything, but when he's right, he's right) is that the statistic to watch for real estate is not raw population growth but household formation.

thoughts?

 You bet Jason. You are one of the few trusted real estate voices out there. Appreciate you and your thought leadership.