All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

In God we trust, all other bring data. Click to enlarge.

Quote from @James Wise:

Quote from @Ka Vang:

Quote from @Marcos De la Cruz:

Rent to Retirement supposedly has cash-flowing properties for sale. 

Has anyone invested with this company?

Thanks.

I purchased a “turnkey” property through RTR in Akron, OH — a market they heavily praise and promoted. Sadly, my experience fell far below what was promised.

Out of respect for the BP community guidelines (and because I’ve seen how brutally honest feedback can be attacked here), I’m choosing not to post full details publicly.

If anyone is considering working with RTR or any of their affiliates and want a fully transparent, firsthand account, feel free to DM me.

Investors deserve the full picture — not just the highlight reel.

"I've seen how brutally honest feedback can be attacked here."

When you come on here with an anonymous profile. No location, no picture, no identifying information and just start attacking a legitimate company, I don't consider that an attack. That's simply experienced investors calling a spade a spade.

Respectfully, raising questions or concerns is not the same as attacking — and I never said RTR is a fraud. I simply encouraged others to read more carefully. Being anonymous doesn’t invalidate anyone’s perspective; it’s a common practice on forums like BP. Let’s focus on the actual topic rather than personal profiles.

That said, who are you to judge when your profile picture is a blue Hulk-looking dude? I’ve seen you actively and defensively engage in threads here. My post wasn’t directed at you personally — unless you’re identifying yourself as a shark here on BP?

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Forclosures are at a historic low. Reporting an increase on a very small number is like saying cash flow on a break-even property has increased by 50%.. congratulations, now you are making $15 instead of 10.

93,000 filings are not much when you know that the size of the US housing market is about 5 million and we have a chronic housing shortage of 3 to 6 million units (depending which banks estimate you trust more), so 93,000 units is basically a drop of water on a hot rock.

TX and FL are outliers right now, they have some of the highest inventory of the US and price appreciation is softening, so it may look a little different locally.

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1. The story is only beginning

2. TX and FL are very important markets ;-) Down turns in those two markets are not good.

3. I'm a "trend line" kind of guy - I like to look at where are things trending

Sure, it could change and improve, but based on the last 4 or 5 years of under reported Distressed loans, I don't expect to see things improving for a couple of years. 

I dont see any big foreclosure situation.. this is just normal activity its highly regional. if anything service rs and lenders learned a very tough lesson during the GFC.. work with borrowers as much as they can and only foreclose if all else fails.. Also so many of these deals get snagged by investors and others prior to sale.. 

Get over the big foreclosure scare. This isn't 2009.

It's more like 2007. Just a time when everyone thinks everything is going to always be the same. They are not the same. Times they are a changin'.

These corrections take a couple of years to play out. I just choose to look at the facts and  see where the facts lead. We aren't there for a while yet, but we are definitely in the beginning. ;-)

I would agree with you .. but as I said that was then and now is now.. lenders are much more apt to work these out than to just foreclose.. so while the NOD's are up disposition is going to be far different thatn 09 when banks and servicers just went straight to foreclosure and were just a PITA to try to do a work out of any kind. 

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Maybe you missed my other posts: No worries, here is what that is about

1. Trump administration announced that they're going to be ending the relaxed FHA Waterfall from the COVID 19 era.

What is the FHA waterfall? Basically, it's a program that helped people that had FHA loans stay in their homes a lot longer than they otherwise would be able to, by paying their mortgage payment for them.

2. VA is reporting they will no longer prolong foreclosures

3. HUD has been selling non-performing notes (pre-foreclosures) to hedge funds so that it doesn't show up on the official HUD stats.

There are a couple of other things brewing, but the basic idea is HUD and VA have stated they are changing policies. It will take time for them to hit the market. Places like Florida and Texas are seeing a surge already. Florida is getting a double whammy from insurance increases and the new law that HOAs have to have "adequate" reserves. That alone is causing many condominium owners to have to sell. They can't afford the huge increases in HOA fees. Phoenix is having substantial inventory increases. Austin and Seattle markets are shifting. Not foreclosures but more inventory and fewer sales.

We have a project meeting with the county on May 8th where we discuss details. No, it's not approved yet, we are just getting all the details together from all the different department.

We do have power from the city and water from the city which we can access easy and set up transformers and water hook ups, we might have two septic system installed, since the sewer line is further down the road than water and power. 

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

Forclosures are at a historic low. Reporting an increase on a very small number is like saying cash flow on a break-even property has increased by 50%.. congratulations, now you are making $15 instead of 10.

93,000 filings are not much when you know that the size of the US housing market is about 5 million and we have a chronic housing shortage of 3 to 6 million units (depending which banks estimate you trust more), so 93,000 units is basically a drop of water on a hot rock.

TX and FL are outliers right now, they have some of the highest inventory of the US and price appreciation is softening, so it may look a little different locally.

.
1. The story is only beginning

2. TX and FL are very important markets ;-) Down turns in those two markets are not good.

3. I'm a "trend line" kind of guy - I like to look at where are things trending

Sure, it could change and improve, but based on the last 4 or 5 years of under reported Distressed loans, I don't expect to see things improving for a couple of years. 

I dont see any big foreclosure situation.. this is just normal activity its highly regional. if anything service rs and lenders learned a very tough lesson during the GFC.. work with borrowers as much as they can and only foreclose if all else fails.. Also so many of these deals get snagged by investors and others prior to sale.. 

Get over the big foreclosure scare. This isn't 2009.

It's more like 2007. Just a time when everyone thinks everything is going to always be the same. They are not the same. Times they are a changin'.

These corrections take a couple of years to play out. I just choose to look at the facts and  see where the facts lead. We aren't there for a while yet, but we are definitely in the beginning. ;-)

@Joseph M.

https://www.multihousingnews.com/ashland-greene-acquires-two...
https://www.kxan.com/business/press-releases/ein-presswire/6...

To tag onto Chris's remarks: I may have picked a few of their capital raiser deals to google, but if my 3-4 searches are correct, they are not the primary sponsor, and likely not the operator, in any meaningful way, on the deals they have listed on their website.

I am not implying that capital raisers are bad.  A good capital raiser will have a plethora of syndicators they work with and can help direct you to ones that best align with your goals.  Unfortunately, a lot of capital raisers also just hitch their wagon to the operator or two that pays the capital raiser the most, and the capital raiser just becomes a "commission based sales rep".

Chris provides a lot of good questions to ask them to better understand what their roles are, how they are vetting and overseeing projects, etc. 

The one question I would add to Chris's list: where is the current raise, and my investment, falling in the overall capital stack on this deal?  Unfortunately, I have seen some recent raises that are effectively hidden pref equity into failing deals.  Not to imply that is always the case, but something to be on the lookout for.

Quote from @Brian Bernstein:

Apparently, they’re now selling some AVAF1 properties to cover the remaining capital call. Distributions were initially described as “paused,” implying they would eventually be caught up,  but that language seems to have quietly disappeared. I’m invested across five funds, all currently “paused,” and it’s unclear what’s really happening, particularly with AVAF1. Is there still meaningful upside on these 2021-era properties, or are we simply hoping to recover principal at this point? And what are the chances of that even happening. The updates have been extremely vague, and I'm just wondering to what extent the principal is safe or lost.  Any insights appreciated here.  Is there a secondary market for these things?

 Cannot comment on the funds themselves but with the others we have seen if you get your principal back or anything back consider it a win. Many offerings are completely wiped of investor equity. 

Regarding a secondary market I have not seen one. There were some investors here on BP trying to sell their investment in these types of assets but with the risk of them going to zero I would expect the person acquiring it would be at 1-5 cents on the dollar. 

Just my opinion on above and again  - cannot comment on any specific investment with this sponsor.