All Forum Posts by: John Carbone

The "name" of a property absolutely matters.  Back in around 2011, we took on a small cabin that the owner insisted on calling "Moonshine Manor."  I recall that it did in the low $20s per year.  A new owner allowed us to rename it and the revenues went up about 50 percent the following year.   There are key words that vacationers are looking for, and those words help fill in the blanks of the mental image of their much anticipated vacation.  Certain words can create very positive feelings, others quite negative.

If you have hired a property manager, let them do their job unfettered.

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I’ll let the chart do the talking here. 

Some of you need to learn to post better pictures :). It’s been ever growing though. Also JOhn if ou chart it in say Europe like Germany/Switzerland etc.. You might be surprised. % of income on housing over there is quite a bit bigger also.  

Ehh if you can cash flow good who cares what rates are. Not like we should be planning on selling quickly anyway. 
 

 Well that does explain why you are so conservative (negative) in your outlook then. 

And yeah he lost me big time on Ukraine. there is no way that works out positively period not for a decade plus. After a whole hell of a lot of pain.

Hahahaha dude when we're paying the mortgage NOW I don't care about what's the rate my grandpa got 50 years ago LOL LOL

I could also say today's rate is cheaper than 1928 :) 

Perhaps some of you guys are either too much money or ignorant about the risk. 


[ this is one reason I stopped asking in BP for investment advice and use other rationale-investor QP level board to discuss the economy ]

The easiest way to get a direct booking is by having repeat guests. 

When they stay at your property, gather their email and phone # and retarget them to come back and book with you directly. You can gather their info through your channel manager if they put in their information into the booking platform or through the guests accessing your guidebook. 

Let Airbnb and VRBO do the heavy lifting on the front end. Then take the guest off platform for their future visits. 

 Please let him make it. I want to see the answer. 

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@John Carbone BTW one clarification - there's no concept of a "margin call" really. The equivalent here is really if they mess up on a loan covenant (or again, whatever the specific provisions of their agreement is w/ the bank on the loan) - then it could be called. The most common would be a DSCR covenant. The value of the home itself isn't directly relevant to that - it's just their ability to service the debt with the cashflow from the property.

In practice, given how much rents have gone up, they would likely need rents to drop, a lot, to have any DSCR issues.

 https://moneymarketadvisor.com...

Private equity is very sensitive to short term rates. They are not getting long fixed term duration funding. 

It’s getting mainstream now, here’s an article today from realtor.com, wait until John Doe sees this. This pretty much sums up what we have all been saying in here except the “never crashers” led by super realtor James . 

https://www.realtor.com/news/t...

james should report this writer for spreading falsehoods. Everything discussed in the article has been discussed in this thread and “proven” by James to be false made up information. How does realtor.com allow such made up conspiracies on their website?

 Did you read the article? 

“Zandi believes home prices will fall about 10% nationally over the next 12 to 18 months if the country avoids a recession. If one happens, he anticipates price declines could approach 20% from peak to trough in 2024.”

IT also said don’t expect foreclosures. Don’t expect more homes to go up for sale - essentially reduced prices which is what a lot of us have been saying.

But hey I’ve been saying 10-20% depending on a few factors :). So I’m not opposed to your article. @Carlos Ptriawan 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/1...

How will we even know when it’s a recession? We no longer use the definition that we always used in the past. is there a new official definition? I know it’s related to unemployment, but what’s the official metric? 
 

@John Carbone Wow you fix the article link but not on the post where I called out that it’s probably the KPMG CEO Survey? You gave no indication in your original post except that it was hot off the presses (it wasn’t). I also made several comments this week that the Fortune 500 were planning lay offs. That you’d see many announced in q4 (some already have since those comments) more will. 

It’s not news or surprising. It’s something factor into my numbers. Numbers you seeem to skip over by not commenting also on other 08 factors like unemployment, labor rate participation and subprime crisis that led us to a 28% market shift. Mean while unemployment that is the lowest it’s been in history, high wages, and no subprime crisis but somehow we will end up at 25%+ price changes.

I’ve been saying 10-20% shift since day 1. You post an article as a resource to pricing changes from realtor.com - that literally says the same thing. 

BTW Blackrock isn’t ever going to fail. If blackrock fails it means the entire world collapsed. IF you are predicting that please let us know. You need to go revisit where I explain how many assets there are or to @Carlos Ptriawan point whose assets those involve.