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All Forum Posts by: Phil Wells

Phil Wells has started 3 posts and replied 128 times.

Post: Will people leave cities post COVID 19?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170
Originally posted by @David Martin:

@Phil Wells so... "but are people going to trade NYC for a place that's half the price but an hour outside the city, I think so"

yeah, but that's the deal, people already do that, so what's the difference here? I mean, my fried in Mahopac, NY doesn't live there because he loves the commute to Stamford, he lives there because Stamford and NYC are super pricey, and he gets better value for what he wants. The deal is, I don't think in these examples that the 'people leaving' part is the focus... it's where are they going?... having 0.15% of NYC workforce decide to work somewhere else doesn't move the needle much. Now, if you told me they all decided to move to Scranton, PA... well that's suddenly a like 1.6% boost in the population for that town... which is a much bigger deal... so I guess to answer your OP question... I don't really think it's going to affect major cities that much, but, for mid-sized cities that are big enough to have decent broadband footprints, this could be boom times for them. So I prefer, in this situation, to focus on which smaller places are winning bigger in this case than the larger cities are losing.

Your last sentence - 100% accurate. 

Post: Will people leave cities post COVID 19?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170
Originally posted by @Aaron Gordy:

No. People will still live in cities because of all the attractions of the city. In Austin during sxsw one can see some of the biggest acts and sometimes for free on Auditorium Shores. In other times of the year, one can see big acts in small places at times. I saw wu tang at a house party once...  In NYC one can see a Yankees baseball game on a Saturday during the day and a broadway play at night. Good fun! One can't do that in the countryside.   

I like this comment and it's a very good point well made. Side note SXSW is on my bucket list still.

Post: Will people leave cities post COVID 19?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170
Originally posted by @Jordan Moorhead:

I don't think so. I think in 6-12 months people will have mostly forgotten about it. It wasn't even that serious?? People don't leave cities because you're more likely to get the flu on a subway than in a field?

The article isn't about COVID 19 - it's about the WFH trend. I'm not suggesting people go live in a field but that maybe people might leave high population density areas in favor of a city suburb, a nearby small town, the beach, etc.

Post: Will people leave cities post COVID 19?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170
Originally posted by @Ujwal Velagapudi:

I've been thinking this will definitely happen to some extent. I don't think it will be a mass exodus, but something that the minority of people working fully remote jobs, who also don't care much for the city they're in, are willing to move. This has already been happening as Texas has been getting a lot of CA and NY folks departing the major cities for a better cost of living while still working their tech jobs. 

I think Facebook did mention they will look to re-adjust the salaries accordingly based on your new "home" base, and I think most other companies will follow. I don't see anybody getting SF engineer money for living in a small town in the middle of nowhere. Depending on how much their salaries actually are re-adjusted will also factor into their decision to move. 

This is very true - there are still a large percentage of jobs like retail, hospitality, manufacturing, etc that can't be done remotely. 

That's a very interesting point regarding adjusted pay. People will have to weigh quality of life and see whether it makes sense to leave the cities. 

Post: Will people leave cities post COVID 19?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170
Originally posted by @Joseph Cacciapaglia:

I believe a lot of people will leave the highest cost and most dense cities. Some will move to the suburbs, and others will move to more affordable cities. I've already had a number of tech workers, who are suddenly allowed to work remotely, contact me about moving to San Antonio, because it's much more affordable, but still has a decent city lifestyle. So far I've heard from people planning to move from the Bay Area, Denver, Austin, DC, Philadelphia, and NYC. I think there are a lot of people that will still want to live in cities, but may start to opt for lower cost and slightly less dense ones.

I'm not sure it will be a high enough percent to really harm the larger cities, but it should be enough to actually help out some of the lower cost cities and suburbs. People have been drawn to cities for thousands of years, so I don't think they're going to just implode. They may just lose a bit of their edge.

I think you hit the nail on the head with this comment. The highest priced, most densely populated cities are the most likely victims of this trend. I don't think for a minute people are going to go live in a cabin in the woods, but are people going to trade NYC for a place that's half the price but an hour outside the city, I think so.

Post: The death of office space

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170

@Joe P. I think you have a point with the rezoning to residential - there is potential there to seize an opportunity for sure. 

However, a major draw of big cities is work. With more and more people WFH now and the trend set to continue I think cities stand a good chance of becoming exclusively young, hipster, student centers rather than real prospects for people to live and work long term. Not sure there's much owners or skyscrapers or cities can do about that if the trend occurs.

Post: Will people leave cities post COVID 19?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170

An article recently published by Redfin highlights the current working from home trend. In a survey it's revealed that up to 1 in 4 newly remote workers expect to continue working from home after COVID 19 passes.

Imagine if you were paying $4000 a month in rent for an apartment in a major city with a strict pet policy and nowhere to park. Suddenly COVID 19 hits and you realize that all you need to earn money is an internet connection.

Almost overnight you begin to think it might be nice to have a house with a garage, some land, somewhere for a couple of dogs to run around and maybe even somewhere to start a family ... and also it might be nice to do all this for half the price of your current rent.

I think this is a real possibility but what impact will it have on the nations major cities? I'd love to hear peoples arguments for cities because I haven't seen much in the press of late.

Original article - https://www.redfin.com/blog/wf...

Post: The death of office space

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170

I am on board with this notion. I think a consequence of office space becoming less utilized will be that people will start to leave big and expensive cities. Maybe they'll return to their home towns to look after their parents in old age. Maybe they'll ditch their city center apartments for a 4 bed 2 bath home in the suburbs an hour or more outside the city. After all, all they need is an internet connection to work.

https://www.redfin.com/blog/wf... 

Post: How to get my wife interested in RE?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170

@Dave E. Maybe try reframing the discussion. Rather than saying, "Look at this ROI! How could you not be interested?" try saying, "Imagine not having to work anymore and being able to visit multiple countries every year, if our ROI is good enough we could do just that."

Worked for me lol 

Post: VA loan or not? Pros and cons?

Phil Wells
Posted
  • Real Estate Agent
  • Spokane, WA & North Idaho
  • Posts 135
  • Votes 170

VA loans are awesome. You can buy up to 4 units and are required to use the property as a primary residence for 1 year. After that you can live wherever you want.

It's a great tool for new and experienced investors alike, you're never going to find a better COC return than with a VA loan where the only cash you need to put down is the VA funding fee (some lenders will let you role this into the loan so you pay nothing at closing, that's what we did).

Good luck