All Forum Posts by: Robert C.

@Brandon Temples, Another way to think about it - if you're someone who has a million dollars cash burning a hole in your pocket and a high paying W-2 or other business, would you rather try and find 10, 20, or even 30+ properties/units in some non-appreciating or fad market, or would you rather just buy one property in a market with an established long history of appreciation in both rents and value.

@Jay Hinrichs, Just a few comments:

1.) California now has a rent control law similar to Oregon that passed the assembly and is awaiting a vote from the state senate. 

2.) My biggest annoyance with rent control enactment is the timing of it all. Local jurisdictions in the Bay Area are enacting rent control at the top of the market, so a.) They are helping only after the fact a much smaller group of people. b.) They are really only hurting the smaller time landlords at this point who were the ones being nice to their tenants by not raising rents in the first place. c.) I suppose it will prevent another run-up in rents like we had this past decade, but when will we ever see this kind of up swing again really? I can at least sympathize with people who want to "help the little guy out"... but it's just way past the point where it would have mattered to the majority of renters here. The push for rent control is having the opposite affect of having landlords raise their rents faster before they get trapped. 

3.) I know a lot of people view California and particularly the Bay Area as this bizarro world compared to the rest of the country where we pay absurd prices, get appreciation in values/rents, booms and busts, etc, etc. But I generally get this sense (from reading BP actually) that this last boom cycle since the great recession has been much more national.  That's great for us real estate investors, but some of the problems that used be more of a California/coastal/urban thing seems to be hitting the rest of the country too. And with those similar problems, politicians are pushing rent control as one of the common solutions.

@Jeff S. Maybe this will make a difference? Just caught this article today.

https://www.npr.org/2019/06/22/734919303/supreme-court-overturns-precedent-in-property-rights-case-a-sign-of-things-to-co

@Doug Phillips I’ve had success with eComfort.com for mini-split systems. You can call them and ask about bulk orders. Or else pm me and I will forward my contact. The discounts aren’t huge on these units but it helps. 

I just read this article about the Supreme Court allowing property rights cases to go direct to Federal court. Anyone have thoughts on whether there are positive implications for us real estate folk?

Anyone here want to step up and “fight the good fight” against rent control for the rest of us?? ;)

@Connor Dunham, I like that you posted based on actual experience - I haven't heard from an alaskan up to this point. One thought occurred to me when reading your last sentence about the idea being a "wealth re-distribution effect". Actually, when I listened to Andrew Yang talk about it, or other tech leaders, I don't think it's so much about wealth re-distribution in the end. I mean, yes it is, but it seems to me the ultimate goal is really about "taming the masses". 

I know this sounds like it comes from some dystopian idea, but if what they talk about really comes to pass, then they're talking about a reasonably long period for society when a vast amount of the labor force is unemployable because their skill sets do not match the jobs available. As Yang put it, what do you think happens if you get rid of 3 million trucking jobs in a few years with no backstop? I think this is the key that a lot of folks are overlooking about the potential purpose for UBI. I totally get it if people just don't believe society will hit this type of disaster - that's fair, but if we truly do hit an inflection point with jobs being replaced en masse, then these folks talking about UBI along with other cultural rethinking are really talking about how to keep people who've been shoved aside by technology from rioting. 

From this perspective, it doesn't really matter whether people spend the money responsibly or not. It just matters whether they have some money in their pocket along with some other sense of purpose (which Yang and others talk about), to keep them, at a minimum, relatively content.

@David Lilley, I don't disagree. I think that assuming you believe that we are going to hit an automation wall as a society at the scale and speed that many technologists believe we are, though, then do you come up with a solution beforehand to soften the blow, or do you just let the things go as they go, and pick up the pieces afterwards. It's a choice that American society is probably incapable of making whether it's this or climate change or any other major hurdle coming our way, so I'm assuming we will default to the latter. 

@Nick B., Never said it was a realistic explanation. :). But candidates like to promise things after all. 

@Nick B., I’m only repeating what the candidate has proposed and I’m not necessarily a supporter (just reading up on most of them). He calls it a “dividend” because he views it as Americans sharing in the prosperity of the technological advancements that will be replacing their jobs and altering society. So the bulk of the money is meant to come from taxing the tech companies and returning that money to citizens. The argument is that tech is paying $0 in taxes right now. He sees it as a virtuous cycle where that money will be spent in local communities and some of it will also float back to tech companies as well through things like online purchases. 

@Wes Blackwell, Way to throw a kitten into the dumpster fire! :) Clearly this topic is way too touchy and political among real estate folks to have a rational discussion. 

For my two cents, technological advancement is kind of like climate change but happening faster with a more personal impact. Even if people find the idea of free money abhorrent, there will eventually have to be a solution whether it fits with current cultural sensibilities or not. The tipping point is inevitable and I’m living under the assumption that there won’t be a solution enacted until after the fact. 

So I guess my answer to your post is it doesn’t matter because universal income won’t be attempted until after a huge market shake up that will negatively impact real estate due to massive job loss. 

Also, it’s Andrew Yang (sp)...