All Forum Posts by: Robin Morales

@Robin Morales our market here is still a strong sellers market for the time being. People are still planning to move here and inventory is super low. It may soften a bit once we move out of the complete lockdown phase, as many sellers are waiting for that to list their properties, so there may be a glut around mid summer, and with the increased inventory may come slightly lower prices, although this market has literally never gone down significantly including during the GFC. We may also see less competitive offer situations on pure investment properties like small multifamily, but as of now that market segment is staying strong as well. CRE is already falling apart and seems to be set up to take the biggest hit. Maybe this is a good time to jump into commercial.

 I think there will be some great opportunities going forth.  Anytime there is significant change in the financial market it spells opportunity in some areas, good or bad.  I am forecasting a lot of blood in the streets in the next year or two.  That spells opportunity for some of us.  

I think capital for deals is going to dry up for the average investor.  Unless you put down a big chunk of money or pay a high interest rate it's going to be hard to get a loan.  From what others have told me this is already starting to happen.  Lenders still have liquidity however.  Investors that have good relationships with lenders and strong financials are going to feast because they still can get their deals financed.  So anyone who really needs to sell is going to get lowballed because the number of buyers who can get financed is going to shrink dramatically. 

The fallout from this crisis could be astronomical in terms of collateral damage to both the housing market and the commercial real estate market.  Retail, hospitality, small multifamily, shopping centers, all of these sectors will be adversely affected to varying degrees.   

@James Wise Interesting. In the note business, it seems like most note trades have stopped.

@Robin Morales In my business, most people seemed to have backed out of their trades. I believe that they are waiting for the worst of the crisis to pass and to see markets stabilize before putting their capital at risk, which I think will happen in the next 2-4 months.

For anyone who needs to sell because of liquidity concerns, they might have to take a good discount until buyers return to the market as well.

This is a unique phenomenon as the economy was in good shape and the crisis was a man-made shutdown to reduce the lethality of the pandemic. I'm in the camp that thinks we'll see a quick comeback once everyone can see that the worst is passed us and there are solutions to our problems.