All Forum Posts by: Ryan Kelly

@Gregory Schwartz the oldest and best strategy in my opinion. It’s designed to get rich slow, but it does get there.

@Scott Trench only FHA and VA loans have assumable options and only for primary home purchasers, so that's why we aren't seeing more assumptions bought by investors. Hence the increase in discussions around "Sub To" deals.

Investors are still buying here in Austin, just with different metrics. Flipping has been the biggest drop off with a softer market, but long term and short term rental investors are buying, they just have to work harder to find deals OR put more money down so the numbers make sense.

@Cooper Meurer congrats on your upcoming move to Austin! It’s a great market for long-term appreciation and growth, but it will be harder to achieve cash flow compared with how the Midland home is structured. Can you afford property management to handle the rental details when you move away? If so, I’d consider keeping it.

@Olga Daisel too many unknowns to predict 2025 yet. Where will interest rates be? Where will we start on pricing next year? How much inventory will still be on the market? Will there be a recession?

I don’t expect markets will “roar” for several years. There was so much appreciation during the pandemic that it will take years to settle back in line with long term trends. The mortgage payments today are 98% higher than 2020. You have to price well AND have incentives for buyers to take interest this year. We’ll see how next year kicks off. Ideally, rates will be a bit lower and will help psychologically.

@Shannon L Fogarty I’m personally a fan of working with local lenders who know all the nuances of their market and how to get deals done. National or multi state brokers are fine for vanilla cookie-cutter deals, but not always for specific local projects like you are taking on. Plus, good communication is key, so if you aren’t getting it, keep shopping.

@Anita Ako they all have advantages and disadvantages. What is your long-term goal? budget? How much are you willing to put down to achieve cash flow neutral? Some of these questions will help determine which direction to hunt. I track all the rent ratios for these communities and happy to connect.

@Henry Lazerow commissions are fully negotiable and will vary by agent, region, markets, and the types of services agents will offer. Some states allow dual agency and some don't (like Texas). I don't think any specific trend has been set yet by the new rule changes and I don't predict it will head all one way or another. We have 50 states with 50 sets of rules and contracts. We also have 100's of markets with their own MLS rules as well. It will be most helpful to connect with professionals in your target market to get an update on trends and options.

The presidential election won't have any impact on a local level. Our median home price in May 2024 is nearly identical to May 2021 and May 2023. The big drop in values was between May 2022 and Q1 2023. Since then, we've been fairly flat as rates stabilized around 7%. As @Jordan Moorhead said, once rates soften a bit, buyer demand is ready to pick back up.

Quote from @Greg Scott:

Quote from @Paul Azad:

 would guess rough times ahead for US Multi-Fam next 2 -3 years, but doesn't look like we are near bottom of the cycle yet?

I'll see your charts and raise you one more.

If I were in Austin, Nashville, Salt Lake City, or Colorado Springs, I would be worried about the next two years.  If I were in the Midwest, I wouldn't.

 This chart is approximately 12 months old, so the actual impact is already being felt on the ground here in Austin. The influx of new apartment units has softened the rental market most acutely in large multifamily, condos, and quadplexes. Single-family and duplexes are holding fairly steady. It will take another 1-2 years to absorb the new inventory but our steady population growth take care of it in time. 

@Mark F. I second Apartments.com. We’re running collection on 8 doors and no charge to either side.