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All Forum Posts by: Sam Yin

Sam Yin has started 3 posts and replied 572 times.

Post: Appreciation Over Cashflow...Will Get You More Cashflow

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737
Quote from @Dan H.:
Quote from @Sam Yin:
Quote from @Dan H.:
Quote from @Sam Yin:

@Travis B.

Ditto!!!

There are many approaches. There is no one perfect approach. This topic has been discussed often. It's nice to see more people thinking about it.

Travis said something profound... if you love your job, then it will be great for you to wait decades to achieve FI from your appreciation strategy. However, for those of us that want freedom quicker, the appreciation strategy that has been laid out is not the answer.

Then the question is: do you want your time freedom now at an able young age, or do you want it a few decades later when you are not as able and not as young?

Easy comparison, 2 to 5 years of investing intentionally for cash flow and be free of W2 OR 20 to 30 years of investing for appreciation while working W2? Which is more worth it to you, the cash flow investment strategy that allows you to have the freedom to transition to appreciation later WITH the freedom of time meanwhile? OR the W2 that you love for the next 20+ years to get to time freedom? Then at the end of the day, will your children (if that's your 'why' like mine) appreciate and be able to carry on the generational wealth??? If you were never free enough to fully influence them in their childhood years??? Or do you think that after 20+ years of sacrifice to build wealth you will have any influence on the adult they became as they were influenced by societal norms?

These are questions people may not have asked themselves. Only you know what the right answer is for YOU. As for me, and a few others that I have read from on BP, investing for cashflow now to get to FIRE sooner is the answer. When I made the conscious choice to go down this REI path, it took a few years to get to FIRE. I get to spend ALL DAY with my family if I want to and I'm still investing for generational wealth. But there is no W2 holding my time down. Had I gone the other way, I might likely create even more wealth because my W2 would have supported my investments longer. I chose the first path for my family legacy.


 Case Schiller reports top total return (appreciation plus cash flow) for large cities for residential real estate since 2000.  I am not sure when I first saw the data but my guess was it was 2013.  The top 3 cities when I first saw it, and I believe every year since, has been San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego.  This implies in ~13 years not only did the the total return for San Francisco beat the average cash flow residential market, but it beat every cash flow residential market (larger cities only).  In addition, I do not know how many years before I saw it was a high appreciating market already the top return market. My point is this is a lot less than 20+ years.  Also in ~13 years (possibly less) it surpassed all of them, how many years to have surpassed the average (I suspect less than 10 years). 

I will go even further, my worse appreciating property has averaged over its hold more return from appreciation than high cash flow markets produce in cash flow.  This implies that on the average year, the high appreciation market will produce higher total return. My worse appreciating property has produced over $2.1k/month appreciation over its hold (current worth ~$950k, purchased $167k, 29.5 years). My best are near $10k/month of appreciation.  

I am not implying you cannot do well in cash flow markets (you can do great), but historically the appreciation markets do better and it takes far less than 20 years (likely less than 10 years).  

I do want to be leery about using history to forecast the future.  historical performance may have poor correlation to future performance.  

Good luck

I must agree ith you Dan that in high appreciation markets, the buy and hold strategy is solid. It seem to always make more on the appreciation than the cash flow. 

Although cash flow is not my primary focus/strategy,  it does play an important part in my game plan. For me, it needs to cash flow to keep the business running on it's own AND to buy my time back. I seek out undervalued and deferred properties for the opportunity to force the appreciation. I exchange as soon as I see the opportunity.  

My recent exchanges have been between 6 to 24 months. During that time, the appreciation took over the cash flow by 5 - 10X. If I have a property that might have longer legs, I may consider the long term hold and squeeze out the appreciation later. But for now, as a beginner, I'm in a growth phase. I plan to transition into a hold phase within the next 5 - 10 years. At that point, I hope to move the equities into major coastal areas.

If I can pick up about 50 - 100 rentals within 5 miles from the beach, at 50% LTV or less, near the coast of LA, San Diego, or San Francisco,  that would be golden. That many units, at 50% LTV or less, there should be adequate cash flow to sustain the properties AND live off of cash flow. That is an end game I would want to pass on to my kids, if they prove they can handle it.
I suspect 20 coastal units could easily accomplish your goal even at higher LTV than 50%.  I have mid 20s units but only 6 units would I classify as coastal if you use the terminology of San Diego or Los Angeles.  I expect to have over $1m in rent this year. If I had 20 coastal units instead of my unit mix, I would have greater rental income than I do.  This means 5 coastal quads in San Diego could achieve significantly over $1m in rent.  

How many average Cleveland non-commercial residential units would it take to achieve $1m in rent?

something to ponder.  

good luck

Good points! You got me rethinking my endgame a bit. I might start collecting beach properties sooner rather than later. It has taken me 3 years of hustle and grind to finally get over $1M gross rents. But after all the operation costs, it is far less in the actual net. I need to adjust my strategy a bit and I think the time is now.

I once saw a podcast on BP interviewing a guy from Seattle (Thach) and he had mentioned a cash flow number in the neighborhood of $250K/month. That got me thinking and it has been something to strive for. Like many things in life, it's better to set your goals high. I am not sure I can get there this decade, but there is a chance I can in the next decade. I will keep plugging away at it.


After reading your response post, I might try for coastal properties to get to those numbers faster. I might have to take an extended trip to San Diego to check out the scene more closely.

Post: Anyone have an idea where the market is headed?

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

I'm just curious what y'all think about the general market? Good time to buy or sell? Buyer's market/Seller's market/neither?

I had a discussion today with a Realtor who expects a rough time ahead....what with the election year coming up and the current state of the Economy/Feds/Rates/Etc. I don't necessarily agree, but I'm thinking status quo is maintained. I am selling a big property and buying a couple of LTRs so I would prefer that. 

But what the heck do I know?


 Bruce,


As always, I think we will continue to get a variety of answers and opinions based on each individual's experience and time in REI. Those that have seen a few cycles will likely remain more calm. This is the same with those who have created a solid income foundation to weather storms. Those who are newer to the game and believe all the headlines/hype may hyper react to one direction or the other, based on who they believe.

I have had discussions with a few realtors, both residential and commercial, and it seems that the tenured ones are more calm about it, but still baffled as to how the market has not taken a larger beating. They feel that the cycle is off and there is an impending implosion coming. To a degree, they are correct... maybe...

MY THOUGHTS, after cleaning my garage all morning:

I feel that the recent outside factors have really altered the course of natural events in REI. COVID, whether you believe it or not, sparked an unusual infusion of government money and a drop in lending rates to stabilize that emergency. Then as the extra money supply started to cause predictable economic outcomes and inflation, the Fed's intervention was to squeeze investment. The issue lies in all the other details that are too long to list. From BLM to CRT to school reforms to cancel culture. It all plays a role in where we are now. Many people refinanced and had a chance to stabilize their assets, both Primary and Investments. Many newer investors, like myself, were able to jump the line quickly due to those factors.

With the aging out of Boomers and the upcoming retirements of Gen X, the culture of our country has shifted quite a bit due mainly to technology and the social media accessibility it created. Because supply became so constricted and material prices skyrocketed, along with all that quiet quitting, in addition to higher lending rates, it put a major strain on builders to create profits for investors. Thus new supply of homes is slower than it could be and prices need to remain high. At the same time, so much equity was created in the recent run-up that those who are already in the market can continue to compete for the higher prices and everyone just moves up a step or two in their ownership ladder since they are already on it. This creates the feeling that it is impossible to get in and confusion as to why people can still afford to make money at these levels. Add to that, the popularity of BP and related REI media, and more investors are savvy to the game as well.

What I see is a continuation of the status quo. I do not see much change in the near future. I see people still investing for both cash flow and/or appreciation, or whatever floats their boat. I see people still pay high and higher prices for their first homes, driving the valuations higher. As long as employers continue to increase wages, people will continue to afford more. As financing gets stretched to 40-year terms, that will only cause prices to climb. 

Although I have not been an active investor for decades like many on this forum, I have been exposed to real estate for many years. I bought my first house while in high school in the 90s. I continued to buy homes every few years as I moved around. But I dove hard into actual investing only about 3 years ago. In that time span, I have put all my focus into making REI my primary source of income and generational wealth-building platform. It is not a hobby for me, it's a lifestyle to sustain the lifestyle I want for me and my family. That was how I created 8 figures quickly. Thus, I am still buying. I closed on 14 mid-September. Then a week later, got into escrow on 9 more and closed that last week, with a 7-day escrow. In fact, I was on a cruise ship and had just enough reception on Wednesday to call the bank to send a wire and close the deal on Thursday before I got back into town.

These are just my opinions. I try my best to leave the politics out of it, but it does sometimes feel that politics impacts the REI space.

Post: Withdrawing my 457b money to purchase another rental

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737

@Jeremy Willcoxson

It all depends on your REI goals and the strategy to get there. For what it's worth, I did that. I pulled 457b money early for an investment opportunity. I took the penalty hit and the tax hit. It was worth it. O have also taken the max loan out to buy REI, and paid myself back at 10%. Still worth it.

I used the 457b as a told to escape the employer bonds. It worked. Make sure your purchase has a strong potential to over come the costs of those to taxes within a short time frame. Or else leave it in the 457b. In my case, when I pulled the $50k loan from 457b, the purchase cash flowed even after paying back the loan. When I took the early withdrawal of about $200k (about $130k after taxes and fees), the purchase projected to cash flowed $20k/yr at COE, and had a baked in value of an additional $100k above the asking price at COE. If it were not those parameters, I would not have done it.

Post: re: How to pay down mortgage quicker?

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737

@David Wilhite

To buy real estate faster often requires more leverage. Paying down your principal faster is a bit counter intuitive to the REI growth phase. But only you can determine what is the best strategy.

To your OP, fastest way I can think of is to pull a HELOC, and sink in ALL you earnings into the mortgage. Live off the HELOC, pay it off each month, and sink in ALL your remaining earning into the mortgage. You will likely be able to pays off you 30 year mortgage in well under 10 years. It takes discipline.

The other way is to make an extra payment EVERY month. That will also reduce your mortgage timeline dramatically.

Those two methods best work for those that treat REI as a hobby and still want to rely on their W2 as their main income. For those that are striving the to leave the W2 and want to live on passive income, it would be futile to try and pay off the mortgage early in the growth phase of REI .

Since this is an REI forum, and your OP was with the intent to buy more properties faster, paying down the mortgage would be counter productive. Save that money, keep buying with leverage faster. If you BRRRR... would that not include refi??? Isn't that just prolonging the mortgage?

In any case, this is just my 0.02. I known it may not be of any consequence to your opinions or anyone else's. Your strategy will always be the best for you.

Post: How can I scale after first SFH?

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737

@Greg Scott

Well said.

One step at a time. Since you are going to buy your first rental, get through a season of rental ownership first. Make sure it's something you can see yourself doing long term before you add on. Worse thing is finding out you do not like Landlording but added what you do not like to you plate prematurely.

Post: Paying insurance and taxes on an owner financed deal

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737

@Kris Allen

Ditto!!!!

Thanks Chris. I just opened escrow on Fri with seller financing. It's all new to me. We are set to close this Fri for a quick one week escrow. It never even hit me to ask for a 3rd party servicer.

Post: How can you make money in this environment?

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737

@Mark Cruse

I recall that thread Mark. It was Crazy Talk!

To each their own. As much as I believe in wealth building through appreciation, the asset must cash flow as well... NOW... NOT 3-5 years from now. It would bankrupt me if I subscribed to that. Or I would need some crazy excess money.

I think most of the time those posters omit clarifying that that they are high income earners and are just trying to side hustle REI. They dabble versus making it their primary income. Otherwise, they would not be chanting that mantra. Think about it, a person with no other income, but invest in negative cash flow. IMPOSSIBLE!!

Post: Strategies For New Investors

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737

@Scott E.

Those are the key components you need to expose yourself to as an aspiring RE investor.

Low barrier to entry

Experience tenant management

Experience requested repairs

It will tell you if this path is for you better than any book or podcast.

Post: The future of RE investing - 5 and 10 year outlook

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737

@Henry Clark

That was probably one of the best post response ever! So true. This generation is lucky, they just do not realize it. Anytime people try to say how difficult it will be for new investors and new generation, I think to myself... Are you just blind? Did you just not do ANY research into what you are trying to invest in?

The internet generation has ALL the advantages. There is almost nothing left to chance. Everything is at your finger tips. The only missing part of the success formula is EFFORT. Move those fingers, do a few searches, pick a strategy, and PUT IN ALL YOU EFFORT and you will succeed. It's virtually guaranteed.

That leads back to the OP. I think it's a good talking point but it is clearly an opinion. I do not foresee too many changes in REI. What comes of it in the next 5 to 10 years will just be the natural progression of REI and it's cyclical nature. I think that for the most part, if new RE investors want to succeed, just follow the path laid out. Start early. Ask questions. Take mental notes and network. Start small and cut your teeth on the basics and progress from there like SFRS, MFRs, Commercial, Land development, etc...

Post: Seller Financing tied to CPI?

Sam Yin
Posted
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Posts 583
  • Votes 737
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Sam Yin:

Well... in my pursuit of trying out owner financing, I think I finally locked one down that might work.

I will revive this post... my post... lol

The original one relented and removed the CPI adjustment component of the financing. But I walked away from it anyway.

I found another that had slightly better terms. Here is the deal:

$1.4M for 3 properties, total 9 unit, in a tertiary market. Actual individual current value adds up to that, at best. If it was to be evaluated as a multifamily commercial, it should be more like $1.2M at best.

The terms is what lured me. It took some negotiations.

20% DP

7.5% I/O for 5 yrs

Zero prepay

Separation clause

Projected cash flow 19K/yr as is with conservative underwriting

NOTE: seller wants a 1% seller finance fee... very cunning...

Actual cash should be around 30K/yr since I operate my own team.

I plan to enter into formal contracts in the next 48 hours and a week later, as a formality. But I'll just button it all up by Friday and wire all the funds because I have a family trip coming and I will not cancel it. I want to come back into town to a completed deal.

Also, I got 100k OPM at 4% to aid my DP. Actual out of pocket is $180K plus some minimal fees... like 11K to seller and $700 to escrow/title. the 180K was from cash flow saved from other rentals income this year, so none of my W2.

Is there anything that I may have missed that could be detrimental? This will be my first seller financing deal. I wanted to give it a try just to see how this would play out for portfolio growth.

I will be using a property inspector. The properties were fully renovated last year and got new roofs.


 you are paying $1.4M for properties worth $1.2M?? 


 The properties are worth 1.4M, appraised individually.  There are 3 parcels in total, a duplex, a triplex, and a fairplex. All parcels are contiguous. 

I am buying as a bundle, but with a separation clause to allow separate refinancing or individual sales.

However, from a commercial loan perspective,  its probably worth 1.2M. I look at it thay way in case I might want to keep them together and refinance into one commercial loan later down the road.


Conventionally, properties in San Bernadino, CA generally sell for about 200K-250k/door for your average C neighborhood home. That's up to 4 doors. It may reach 300k/door for a B or A neighborhood. When it comes to apartments, it drops to 150k-200k/door on average. Thus valuations look different. From a commercial perspective, with 20% down, the DCR is only 1.16. That's the lowest I have ever done. I generally like 1.3.

In this case, I just closed on 14 homes last week, one block south of this location. This would make it for easy management due to proximity. Additionally, when I close those 14 homes, I used commercial financing to wrap them all because they were close to each other. they were valued about 2.5M individually, but I bought them for 1.9M as a commercial package. There DCR was 1.4. All this to say that if I mess up on this new deal, i could potentially wrap them all on a refi later into a 23 home commercial loan.

Your thoughts?