Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
I'm just curious what y'all think about the general market? Good time to buy or sell? Buyer's market/Seller's market/neither?
I had a discussion today with a Realtor who expects a rough time ahead....what with the election year coming up and the current state of the Economy/Feds/Rates/Etc. I don't necessarily agree, but I'm thinking status quo is maintained. I am selling a big property and buying a couple of LTRs so I would prefer that.
But what the heck do I know?
Bruce,
As always, I think we will continue to get a variety of answers and opinions based on each individual's experience and time in REI. Those that have seen a few cycles will likely remain more calm. This is the same with those who have created a solid income foundation to weather storms. Those who are newer to the game and believe all the headlines/hype may hyper react to one direction or the other, based on who they believe.
I have had discussions with a few realtors, both residential and commercial, and it seems that the tenured ones are more calm about it, but still baffled as to how the market has not taken a larger beating. They feel that the cycle is off and there is an impending implosion coming. To a degree, they are correct... maybe...
MY THOUGHTS, after cleaning my garage all morning:
I feel that the recent outside factors have really altered the course of natural events in REI. COVID, whether you believe it or not, sparked an unusual infusion of government money and a drop in lending rates to stabilize that emergency. Then as the extra money supply started to cause predictable economic outcomes and inflation, the Fed's intervention was to squeeze investment. The issue lies in all the other details that are too long to list. From BLM to CRT to school reforms to cancel culture. It all plays a role in where we are now. Many people refinanced and had a chance to stabilize their assets, both Primary and Investments. Many newer investors, like myself, were able to jump the line quickly due to those factors.
With the aging out of Boomers and the upcoming retirements of Gen X, the culture of our country has shifted quite a bit due mainly to technology and the social media accessibility it created. Because supply became so constricted and material prices skyrocketed, along with all that quiet quitting, in addition to higher lending rates, it put a major strain on builders to create profits for investors. Thus new supply of homes is slower than it could be and prices need to remain high. At the same time, so much equity was created in the recent run-up that those who are already in the market can continue to compete for the higher prices and everyone just moves up a step or two in their ownership ladder since they are already on it. This creates the feeling that it is impossible to get in and confusion as to why people can still afford to make money at these levels. Add to that, the popularity of BP and related REI media, and more investors are savvy to the game as well.
What I see is a continuation of the status quo. I do not see much change in the near future. I see people still investing for both cash flow and/or appreciation, or whatever floats their boat. I see people still pay high and higher prices for their first homes, driving the valuations higher. As long as employers continue to increase wages, people will continue to afford more. As financing gets stretched to 40-year terms, that will only cause prices to climb.
Although I have not been an active investor for decades like many on this forum, I have been exposed to real estate for many years. I bought my first house while in high school in the 90s. I continued to buy homes every few years as I moved around. But I dove hard into actual investing only about 3 years ago. In that time span, I have put all my focus into making REI my primary source of income and generational wealth-building platform. It is not a hobby for me, it's a lifestyle to sustain the lifestyle I want for me and my family. That was how I created 8 figures quickly. Thus, I am still buying. I closed on 14 mid-September. Then a week later, got into escrow on 9 more and closed that last week, with a 7-day escrow. In fact, I was on a cruise ship and had just enough reception on Wednesday to call the bank to send a wire and close the deal on Thursday before I got back into town.
These are just my opinions. I try my best to leave the politics out of it, but it does sometimes feel that politics impacts the REI space.