All Forum Posts by: Eric Bilderback

I would advice buying right here in Central Oregon especially if you are a realtor. Might as well get the commision. I think that is a great goal there were a couple 4-plexes in Redmond I thought were great deals I believe they have both gone pending but there is some good stuff out there.

1 Vote

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Scott Trench:

I know that anytime Trump's name is mentioned, someone gets triggered. Either the post is too anti-Trump, or too Pro-Trump.

Let me be clear - I do not condemn Trump's policies or necessarily know whether they will be positive in the long-term future or not for real estate investors. Further, "Downward Pressure" may be "bad" for investors, but it may also be "good" for renters - his policies, if I am correct, may negatively impact housing prices and rents, to the detriment of investors and to the benefit of renters, in the near-term.

"Positive" or "Negative" impacts are relative. I write from the standpoint of a real estate investor, and I perceive Trump's actions to be threatening to near-term real estate investment returns, on the whole. I believe this because I think that on the whole, his first two weeks of actions are likely to:

- Have zero no impact on near-term supply (deliveries for single family and multifamily homes 2025 are a result of actions put into motion several years ago)

- Put upward pressure on interest rates: Trump's demand that the Fed lower rates will have absolutely no effect, other than providing a cheap source of easy social media clicks and engagement for real estate pundits. However, the implementation of tariffs, or just the threat of tariffs, is likely to influence rates, by impacting inflation numbers, and this influence may come quickly if prices for many common goods and services and raw materials rise in anticipation of tariffs, or in response to their implementation.

- Put downward pressure on demand: I personally believe it is unlikely that Trump actually deports millions of illegal immigrants who have settled in the United States. This, to me, seems impractical, and a PR nightmare. It's possible he carries it out, but I believe it unlikely. I believe it is far more likely, however, that the effect of his stance and actions materially lessens the flow of new illegal immigrants. This will slow new demand for rentals. In the event that any meaningful percentage of 10-15 million (estimates seem to vary widely depending on which news source you prefer) current illegal immigrants are deported, real estate investors will have a big problem as vacancies soar. It is likely that a huge percentage of that 10M-15M illegal immigrant population are renters. Regardless of whether investors currently rent to illegal immigrants, their competition in the market likely does.

- Put Upward pressure on real estate operating costs: Increased costs for raw materials and supplies, and the likely increased costs for labor involved in many real estate related CapEx and maintenance projects signal the risk of increase in costs for real estate operators.

If there is no impact on near-term supply, a modest slowing of inbound (illegal) migration, more reason to believe that the cost of many goods and services will increase, and real reason to believe that inflation triggered by something other than an increase in the money supply (namely the cost of specific goods and services that are NOT housing going up, which comprise the CPI) will force the Fed to raise rates, this, on the whole, is not good for real estate investment returns.

No, I do not think that there will be a housing crash or a massive drop, nationwide, in rents and prices. Yes, there will be offsets (do Tariffs and slowing illegal immigration increase wages for some workers - likely yes). But, I believe that the actions of the first two weeks should give investors, on the whole, reason to incrementally revise down their expectations for growth in prices or rent growth in 2025. There may also be incrementally better probability of deals, as investors who are dependent on rates coming down may find their hopes disappointed.

I think 2025 will be, by and large a buyer's market, and that the new administration's policies only, and again incrementally, make me more confident that this will be the case.

What do other investors think? Do you agree or disagree?

Scott maybe you need a politics category some pretty good conversations have been had with pretty good civility.. I suspect this one stayed up because your the Original author :)

Besides the guys who post threads saying he just retired from being a teacher, and are making 250k a year after 10 years of investing these are the funnest threads. Come on baby bring it! LOL

0 Votes

Denver, Colorado

I never did a househack. If I did I would been out of my 9-5 4 years earlier I bet. After about 10 years I have accumulated a fair amount of small multifamily properties. If I were to do it again I would do exactly what you are doing.

- Is your goal to be financially independent, nice retirement, or just have a nice little profitable side hustle?

- And you said you were looking for a flip to live in or a househack acquiring a 2-4 more units?

Both are great ideas or even both. I am an advocate for buying real estate and then just holding it. Buy the best deal you can find and in 10 years you will look like a genius.

2 Votes

Quote from @Steve K.:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

I don't see how someone could vote for policies that have a million dead Ukrainians basically an entire generation for nothing, 100k ODs a year from fentanyl of our own citizens, poor Americans having to compete with illegal immigrants for work, etc. Trump is not supposed to be a good guy he is an instrument to bring the political class and the corporatists a reckoning for what they have done to America's middle class.

9 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Steve K.:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

Quote from @Steve K.:

Do you feel the same about all these politicians that go to DC make 200k a year and in 10 years are worth 25 million? Pelosi comes to mind her stock trades, her husband was in his underwear with a gay prostitute and they blamed MAGA that seems kind of weird, to say the least. Trump is the first President I am aware whos net worth went down while he was the President. I would pushback on you and say that for all of Trump's many faults he has a strong conviction on what needs to be done. You may not like it but Trump is doing what he believes is in the best interest of the country. No?

Not a fan of any corrupt politicians, I consider myself a centrist not beholden to either party and for the record I have not been a fan of Trump since when he was a Democrat (which he was for a long time before becoming a Republican, then he switched parties I believe at least 5 times).

The question I was hoping you would answer is does Trump believe what he is doing is good for the country or is he knowingly harming the country for his own benefit? You come across as a little smug and with an attitude as anyone who disagrees with you is obviously a corrupt or a total moron.

3 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@Eric Bilderback

the short answer (or at least my own personal answer) to explain the decline in fertility is... it's complicated, and I probably don't know all of the factors behind. i think both parties have contributed.

and the apolitical, practical point i was trying to make was that, regardless of why, it will probably lower demand for real estate in the US, but not for another 10-15 years.

as Jason Hartman points out (again, I don't agree with him on everything, but when he's right, he's right) is that the statistic to watch for real estate is not raw population growth but household formation.

thoughts?

I just hate seeing young people being pushed this materialist line and putting wealth and career above a family. Wealth is great but I think most people will be happier and more fulfilled with a family.

0 Votes

Denver, Colorado

@Dan H. How many Ukrainians have been killed so their country can join NATO?, like that was ever going to happen. COVID did not come from a Chinese bat. Biden's kid is a crackhead, pervert and the media, big tech and government did pretend his laptop was Russian disinformation.

Just condescension, do better? I didn't wear mask or buy into the vax now I am immune to that. LOL.

7 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Jeremiah Dunakin:

Quote from @James Wise:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Here's my take, I believe you are missing some key points (or assuming incorrectly :-)

Put upward pressure on interest rates: Trump's demand that the Fed lower rates will have absolutely no effect.

I disagree. Presidents can, will and do put pressure on the Fed chair. They hire them and can fire them, it's not realistic to think there is no pressure on them. I say Trump puts his size 11s up Powells butt by this summer.

However, the implementation of tariffs, or just the threat of tariffs, is likely to influence rates, by impacting inflation numbers, and this influence may come quickly if prices for many common goods and services and raw materials rise

You are assuming that the typical view of Tariffs that we hear from the Dems and the Media are the way they actually work. If you listen to other economists, there are different views on this. And once the 'Reciprocal Tariffs' go into effeect, that's a whole new game. This whole Tariff thing should be short-lived anyway, I see little effect on the economy overall...

I personally believe it is unlikely that Trump actually deports millions of illegal immigrants who have settled in the United States. This, to me, seems impractical, and a PR nightmare.

I think Mr Trump will indeed deport 'a bunch', probably many millions by the time we are done, but certainly I would see the number in excess of a million, easy. He doesn't care about the PR either, the most recent poll saw 70% approval IIRC. The immigration was a huge reason he was elected.

Just my $.02.......

This is where so many people on the left miss the boat. The negative PR he's getting for the deportations is only from the left. As Bruce said, his stance on deportations is a major reason why he was elected. Whether you are pro or anti deportation is one thing, but it's wild to me how many on the left fail to read the room. America has spoken and the left's PR stance on open boarders and immigration is no longer something the majority of Americans agree with. What MSNBC says about the deportations does not matter to the majority of Americans as they are in favor of them.

Agreed, the American people voted for what’s going on. They voted and they voted overwhelmingly to do it. Like the man and his policies or not. The fact remains that his approval numbers are as high as they ever were. He is doing what he voted in to do. It’s amazing (I said this durning the last administration as well ) that people just don’t look at reality. They want to hate (sadly that’s where we are pure unbridled hatered) a party or group of people. Just look at facts. We see policy from both sides. Does it work? Yes or No. doesn’t matter who signs the bill. Does it work

Overwhelmingly to me would imply at least a majority. I do not know your definition of overwhelmingly, but they did not vote overwhelmingly for trump even using my fairly low threshold of having the majority of voters vote for him.

There is this false narrative that there is a clear mandate by the people. Reality is trump did not get the majority of the vote and the senate and house majorities are very thin.

The country and the populace are very divided and have been this way for a while. It is not good. I wish both parties had nominated more moderate candidates, but I could also wish to win the lottery and it has zero impact.

@sctot trench I disagree about your direction on prices as labor used for housing will increase. Material cost is likely to increase. This will slow new housing and make it more expensive. Supply in desirable areas is already less than demand. Any deportations will not overcome this imbalance. Land is finite in many of these desirable areas. So providing housing in these areas is full of challenges.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride ..

We can play the word game all day long. He won the popular vote and the electoral vote. He won a lot of the union vote as well as double on voters from non traditional bases. This is what I was talking about in another post. People don’t accept reality. It was a landslide he swept the blue wall picked up Georgia and North Carolina. To me that classifies as a majority. There was a clear mandate by the people of the united states(it doesn’t matter how I feel about it) everyone knew what he was running on. And yet he picked up roughly 2 million more votes than 2020 and Dems lost roughly 7 million. That’s a 9 million vote swing. To me that is people accepting his position. We can split hairs all we want and not like the outcome but he fact remains the house was held red the senate flipped red and the presidency is red. That signals that people want change(whether I agree or not) the fantasy world of not acknowledging people’s wants and desires not being in touch and having wordplay is exactly why the red wave happened.im not an eagles fan but its clear to me they dominated the Super Bowl (whether I like it or not)

>To me that classifies as a majority.

Now you are redefining majority. Seriously? Winning a majority of the vote means he got over 50% of the vote. He did not unless you change the definition of majority.

He won the popular vote by a smaller margin than any democratic victor going back to JFK. This is the vote you indicated overwhelmingly voted for trump. under that definition every democratic winner (and possibly some democratic losers) since JFK where more overwhelming voted for.

Definitions matter. Making up definitions to support the narrative you desire is misleading. Incorrect usage of majority added to questionable usage of overwhelmingly to advance a narrative is deceitful.

The US is getting more divided. false narrative does not help. My view is in general it has been going this way for decades.

Out

Fair enough. We can play word games all day. We can say Biden and Obama won overwhelmingly. That is fine. This is isn’t about about picking sides. Its about people either voted for him based on his clearly laid out agenda, Or they didn’t vote against it. Regardless all the chambers are Red. Call it what you will.what I know is there was a 9 million vote swing. My opinion or thoughts on the matter don’t change who in office.the people have spoken and have said they want what he campaigned on.Be it a blow out or one vote win. In the end it doesn’t matter the size of the win. A win is a win. I hope he does well. I hope the next president does well. I hope you do well.

What’s my narrative? I don’t have one I stated that republicans swept the elections they have an all red house. To me that is kinda of a blowout. I feel like the country “ overwhelmingly “ felt this way since it was a sweep in popular and electoral house and senate as well as I don’t think democrats did better in any county than they did last time. These are truths. Sorry we don’t see eye to eye on terms. Sheesh is this how bill mauer feels

This view I more understand. The legislature, executive, and judicial are all red currently. But the margins on both legislative branches are very small. The Executive branch did not get the majority of the vote. If left leaning justices were more aware of their health and the nature of the legislative branch, the judicial could have a different makeup.

I also want to point out that my view of overwhelming does not apply to any term since Reagan. It is rare that a party has control of all 3 branches, even if the margin is razor thin. It is the reality.

This does not change that I wish the country was less divided. I think the fact that all 3 branches are currently right leaning does not imply that the country is not very divided.

I hear JD and Trump state falsehoods like Trump won the majority of the vote or there is a clear mandate. The reality is his margin of victory on the popular vote is less than every democratic winner going back to JFK. they state this falsehood to give the false impression that the majority of voters voted for his actions (which is not the case).

I agree some things needed addressing but believe that many of Trumps actions are against the law. The deficit needs addressing, but congress should have control of the purse. Congress is abdicating their power because they do not have the votes to do the things that trump is doing by executive order that are not in his power to lawfully do. It is an interesting but dangerous precedent.

I view this as potentially very dangerous. I think we all hope this works out.

Regardless, I think we are in for a bumpy ride. fortunately, I believe that I would do great financially regardless of who won the presidential election. If taxes go down for higher tax basis, I will move more taxable money to tax free options allowing for greater wealth preservation.

Good luck

I could be wrong but I think he is gonna be able to push through what he was voted in to do. He has both senate and house. This gonna help him push his agenda. We can not like the man in office all we want, but once the charade is over he is gonna be able to do what his constituents voted him in n to do.word it how you may but more people were in favor of his policies than were opposed. Regardless how it’s spun. People are going to expect a return in thier investment. He said such and such. Now the greater number of people who voted for him expect him to follow through.We may not like the political arena but the other side is not always wrong and my side is not always correct. Take the propaganda out of each party and look at actual content I think we would be less “devisive”. Hope you do well in the next four years and the four after that

I do not think he will need to push much through the legislative branch and that if he tried he would not succeed. What appears to be happening is he is making executive orders that should fall under congressional purvey. The legislature is abdicating their role in the process because they recognize it would not pass the legislation (at least not without revoking the filibuster).

This is the dangerous precedent. Each branch of government has their role as a means to constrain the other branches. If a branch abdicates its responsibility, another branch can assume powers that are not theirs.

The legislative branch allowing the executive branch to assume power that does not belong with the executive branch is a means to get around the difficulties or getting anything passed by the legislature.

I offer as evidence that the legislation could not pass these changes the question "what has this legislation passed of any significance?" Anything?

I think politics will forever be changed, and not for the better.

Good luck

Who got over a million Ukrainians killed while their buddies in the defense industry made billions? Who pretended COVID came from a bat and scrubbed the internet when they pointed out that you still get COVID after taking the vaxes? Who pretended to believe that Biden's pervert, crackhead kid's laptop which had proof financial crimes committed by his low life Dad was Russian disinformation and scrubbed and then censored the internet to ensure that his Biden was elected Commander and Chief? I agree that politics has changed but Trump is not the change he is the response to average Americans being sold out.

8 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Nicholas L.:

@James Wise

agree with that, as regardless of anyone's opinion on what we should do, i think that is what voters said and voted for. one thing that is interesting to me (and maybe this brings us back to real estate?) is the following.

i think almost everyone in this thread would agree with point 6 of @JD Martin - that the debt being accumulated is totally unsustainable. and, (hopefully this is apolitical too) natural population growth in the US is slowing drastically. so... if population growth is slowing, the debt is increasing, and immigration slows... won't that eventually hurt demand for real estate?

Jason Hartman, whom I don't agree with on probably more than I do, but whom I follow closely because I appreciate his perspective and all the data he leverages, talks a lot about this. he sees an inflection point potentially in the late 2030s when this all comes together... fewer workers for every retiree, the SS trust fund runs out, potentially more of the budget is going to interest...

Curious why you (and anyone else) think the US population is slowing? Why do your fellow citizens not want too, or to take it a step further, why do folks not believe it is their duty to have children to pass along their values and traditions to? Should our nation create an economy, society, and teach values that would encourage people to have families? Currently our government and other institutions pretend to be neutral but everything from Taylor Swift to cat sweatshirts says that is not the case.

I know your a reasonable/practical guy genuinely curious how you answer this. Thanks for humoring me I'm sure you weren't expecting that question! Lol

0 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:

@Jay Hinrichs Is that Saddlestone where your development was? I remember it well as a buy and hold guy it was brutal for the developers it was as bad as it gets. I recall a few guys committing suicide.

the one in Sisters was if I recall correctly you head out 20 towards Bend and it was right on the east side of town and right off of 20.. And yes I know of more than a few that took their own lives .. So many on BP were not in the bizz in those days and simply have no clue how bad it was for many.. I mean I got financially wiped out personally.. And basically had to start over.. When your tenants dont pay and your borrowers cant refi and your banks call your loans ( like we see happening RIGHT NOW in the MF space) projects and RE gets lost and investors get wiped out .. Plenty of MF LPS being wiped out monthly these days.. what we see on BP with folks is just a small smattering.. and many of the MF deals the GPs are just kicking the can down the road with the cash calls and in another few years they to will lose the proejcts.

That is really cool I had no idea I've followed you a long time and knew you were an Oregon guy and fished the Deschutes and Metolius, no idea you were involved in real estate so close to me. If we got into the same situation as 2008 do you how do you think you would fair? Do you feel like you got some takeaways personally from 2008? If it takes to long to answer don't worry about it, sounds like it would make a good, long BP episode.

0 Votes

Washington, DC

All Forum Posts by: Eric Bilderback

Eric Bilderback has started 56 posts and replied 958 times.

Post: Long Term Rental

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Long Term Rental

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

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