All Forum Posts by: Ken Boone

 True. I have experienced the same. 

 It does not hurt to ask.   It is worth trying in this case I think. I would explain that you talked to the cleaners and let them know they needed to step up and make sure everything is clean.  And then simply ask since everything else was good and I have done what I can to resolve the situation would you consider removing your review as non 5 star reviews impact your business and you trying very hard to provide an exceptional experience to all your guests and apologize for what they dealt with. It’s worth a try.  We asked one guest to remove a review and we were successful.  

 HaHaHa.. nailed it!

 Right so definitely holding as the cash flow numbers are still great, just less than what I expected this year, but more than I initially projected when purchasing 5 years ago, based on prior performance and comparison with like cabin.

 Don't get me wrong in my situation.   There is a drastic difference between how these 2 cabins are performing this year with almost equal feature parity.  The former has been a top performer for 4 years and all of the sudden it is not.  The new one was built to be of similar status as this other top performing cabin.  However, I bought well, so even at the reduced performance I am cash flowing very well.  I always purchased with the idea if the rent drops 50% I can still cash flow so I am good from that perspective.  Just can't explain the drastic performance difference between these two cabins.   It is just another incentive to continue to try and build a more constant direct booking stream to remove the needed dependency on the main OTAs.

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Here is another example of what I would consider a great view. Took this shot off of one my cabin decks.  

 I don’t remember the names of those but to put it in perspective my cabin is at the end of a knob about 1/2 way up to the peak of Cove Mtn where the old fire tower is at.  What you see in the basin of that picture is Wears Valley.  The mountain peaks on the right side is where the new part of the parkway is at heading toward out past Townsend 

Here is another example of what I would consider a great view. Took this shot off of one my cabin decks.  

@Kyle Smith So I dunno about the proven formula theory.  I am hesitant to build anything in that market right now for many reasons.  In theory I know the formula you are using too cause it's the same one I have used.  My new build that went in to service in 2022 is knocking it out like Covid is still here just like your new cabin is doing.  The problem is my other cabin that used to knock it out the same way every year, even prior to Covid, has now dropped.  It's like the new cabin took the lead spot, and the cabin that used to be the lead has dropped a LOT and they are very similar in amenities.  That cabin was built in 2018 so it's not an "older" cabin.  I am still cash flowing well on that property but not nearly like the latest one.  Not even close.  As I said in another post, I think these cabins should be within 5% of each other and they are nowhere near that close this year.  I think a lot has to do with the algos on the OTAs giving preference to new builds which there have been a ton of in the area.  I don't understand why there is such a wide variance between these two cabins right now - same formula.

Also, I asked @Collin Hays if there was any correlation he could find between the cabins his company manages that are doing somewhere between 15% drop to 50% drop and he said he could find no correlation.

If I were to build another any time soon, it would be with a huge down payment, so it would not be so heavily leveraged for my risk tolerance right now.  I definitely would not be building one at todays prices with 10 - 20% down right now.  

If it were me I would probably try to sell the lot and wait and see what happens. Go look at MLS and search for indoor pool cabins. There are more on the market right now than I have ever seen in the last 6 years. All of them have red arrows with prices coming down, I think one out of 3 pages of listings is pending. The purchase price also has a wide variance right now as well and the prices are dropping. My thinking is they will keep dropping and at that point it might make more sense to purchase an existing pool cabin than to build which is gonna be a real pain - I know you know this already ;)

Well that makes sense to me with my cabins.  In particular, I have these two comparable cabins, both 2400 sq ft, 2 king suite pool cabins.  Both have theater setups, both have projectors in the pool rooms. Both have pool table and multiple arcade games.  The first one has traditionally blown it out of the water so to speak.  The second one was put in to service June 22.  Now the second one does have some outdoor space that the first one does not have but these two cabins are pretty close to par with each other.  The first one is much closer to the parkway as well and has a lot more 5 star reviews since it has been renting longer.  

This year, the second one has been like nothing ever changed with the market. In fact the second started booking immediately after putting in to service and hasn't stopped.  The first one is down considerably.  The occupancy rate is down 22% for the year compared to the 2nd one. 

Now per @Kyle Smith thoughts that newer cabins with great amenities are going to be doing better makes sense, but I think that is really comparing cabins in the last 5 years to cabins that are 30 years old.  The 1st cabin I mentioned was put in to service in 2019 and it was a new build as well so it is pretty current.  

I would expect these two cabins to perform within 5% of each other and for whatever reason it is not and I cannot explain it other than an algorithm change in the OTAs.

@Collin Hays Are you able to identify the difference between the rentals that are down 15% vs the ones down 50%.  Is it a certain size cabin that is doing better or worse, or does it strictly revolve around the cabins that have more/better amenities doing better?