All Forum Posts by: Ken Boone

@Kyle Smith So I dunno about the proven formula theory.  I am hesitant to build anything in that market right now for many reasons.  In theory I know the formula you are using too cause it's the same one I have used.  My new build that went in to service in 2022 is knocking it out like Covid is still here just like your new cabin is doing.  The problem is my other cabin that used to knock it out the same way every year, even prior to Covid, has now dropped.  It's like the new cabin took the lead spot, and the cabin that used to be the lead has dropped a LOT and they are very similar in amenities.  That cabin was built in 2018 so it's not an "older" cabin.  I am still cash flowing well on that property but not nearly like the latest one.  Not even close.  As I said in another post, I think these cabins should be within 5% of each other and they are nowhere near that close this year.  I think a lot has to do with the algos on the OTAs giving preference to new builds which there have been a ton of in the area.  I don't understand why there is such a wide variance between these two cabins right now - same formula.

Also, I asked @Collin Hays if there was any correlation he could find between the cabins his company manages that are doing somewhere between 15% drop to 50% drop and he said he could find no correlation.

If I were to build another any time soon, it would be with a huge down payment, so it would not be so heavily leveraged for my risk tolerance right now.  I definitely would not be building one at todays prices with 10 - 20% down right now.  

If it were me I would probably try to sell the lot and wait and see what happens. Go look at MLS and search for indoor pool cabins. There are more on the market right now than I have ever seen in the last 6 years. All of them have red arrows with prices coming down, I think one out of 3 pages of listings is pending. The purchase price also has a wide variance right now as well and the prices are dropping. My thinking is they will keep dropping and at that point it might make more sense to purchase an existing pool cabin than to build which is gonna be a real pain - I know you know this already ;)

Well that makes sense to me with my cabins.  In particular, I have these two comparable cabins, both 2400 sq ft, 2 king suite pool cabins.  Both have theater setups, both have projectors in the pool rooms. Both have pool table and multiple arcade games.  The first one has traditionally blown it out of the water so to speak.  The second one was put in to service June 22.  Now the second one does have some outdoor space that the first one does not have but these two cabins are pretty close to par with each other.  The first one is much closer to the parkway as well and has a lot more 5 star reviews since it has been renting longer.  

This year, the second one has been like nothing ever changed with the market. In fact the second started booking immediately after putting in to service and hasn't stopped.  The first one is down considerably.  The occupancy rate is down 22% for the year compared to the 2nd one. 

Now per @Kyle Smith thoughts that newer cabins with great amenities are going to be doing better makes sense, but I think that is really comparing cabins in the last 5 years to cabins that are 30 years old.  The 1st cabin I mentioned was put in to service in 2019 and it was a new build as well so it is pretty current.  

I would expect these two cabins to perform within 5% of each other and for whatever reason it is not and I cannot explain it other than an algorithm change in the OTAs.

Quote from @Collin Hays:

The most accurate "number" is the calendar for your rental.  For us, 2023 will be about 15 percent less revenues on average than 2022.  Some properties are down only slightly, some are down 50 percent.  

@Collin Hays Are you able to identify the difference between the rentals that are down 15% vs the ones down 50%.  Is it a certain size cabin that is doing better or worse, or does it strictly revolve around the cabins that have more/better amenities doing better?

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

I have actually made it all the way from Buccee's down to 321 without stopping at a single light twice this summer.  INSANE!!!

 Did you happen to buy the Bucee's Gummi Bear pack?  

 No but I bought batteries... lots of batteries.  Bucee's has 24 pack of AA Energizer Max for $9.99 and the other battery size prices are similar.  Cheapest place I have found to by quality batteries for all my cabin needs.

I have actually made it all the way from Buccee's down to 321 without stopping at a single light twice this summer.  INSANE!!!

Quote from @Peter Stewart:

 Every time I go down that way it's absolutely slammed with people. From what I see the demand for the area is still extremely high and I don't see it changing anytime soon.

Not been my experience.  I am in town a LOT.  Multiple trips through the summer.  Not near as much traffic.  Weekends - sure, weekdays not so much.  There is a huge decrease in traffic compared to the last 2 years overall.  My cabins are down about 8% from last year, which is still pretty darn good, however, my cabins have pools and or views.  However, talking with my cleaners, they have felt the pinch this year as well, as overall, they have seen a decrease in bookings in all of the rentals they support.

There is truth to what you said about the mediocre middle for sure.  You hit the nail right on the head with that one.

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @Ian Tyndall:

Quote from @Brian Kantor:

Hi, all! We want to buy an arcade machine for our STR that plays a bunch of different games. Does anyone have any machines or vendors that they'd recommend that would deliver? Any tips or advice?

Many thanks!

 I was going to do this, but I changed my mind after talking with my target demographic (my kids). Rather than go with a classic arcade style game that I would like, they got crazy excited at the idea of a PS5 with a game subscription. Their view is that an arcade game is cool for 10 minutes, but a PS5 is something that they would enjoy for their entire stay. 

I think younger travelers and groups with younger guests find this more appealing. PS5, TV and two gamer chairs is about the same cost or less than an arcade unit

This is true and that is why I have Xbox in my cabins.  However the older generation that lived through the 80s really like that arcade cabinet and they are the ones paying for the trip. 😉

 also, a lot of the 3/4 size Arcade1 games have multiple games loaded on them.

Yea so I have a variety.  The two types I get from Arcade Headquarters are the standard full size cabinet with 60 games and then a whiskey barrel setup with controls on top with a 42” display mounted on the wall behind it. That has 3000 games with more of the multi player street fighter games.  It also has some lesser known classics such as Popeye, Elevator Action, Gorf etc.  Those two units make a good combo. 

Quote from @Ian Tyndall:

Quote from @Brian Kantor:

Hi, all! We want to buy an arcade machine for our STR that plays a bunch of different games. Does anyone have any machines or vendors that they'd recommend that would deliver? Any tips or advice?

Many thanks!

 I was going to do this, but I changed my mind after talking with my target demographic (my kids). Rather than go with a classic arcade style game that I would like, they got crazy excited at the idea of a PS5 with a game subscription. Their view is that an arcade game is cool for 10 minutes, but a PS5 is something that they would enjoy for their entire stay. 

I think younger travelers and groups with younger guests find this more appealing. PS5, TV and two gamer chairs is about the same cost or less than an arcade unit

This is true and that is why I have Xbox in my cabins.  However the older generation that lived through the 80s really like that arcade cabinet and they are the ones paying for the trip. 😉

Quote from @Brooklyn McCarty:

Arcade Headquarters. They are in The Smokies in Tn, but I think they will ship. 

 Yep David is the best!   

Quote from @Lisa Marie:

Quote from @Ken Boone: 

So hopefully you would not really do that.  Because if that is the type of guest you are, I would not want you to stay at any of my STRs.   But we get the point there is a segment of guests who will not rent if you only have a charcoal grill.  

 
I have STRs with charcoal grills and I have them with propane grills.   The charcoal grill does not impact my rents at all. 

Agreed you need to disclose the grill.  A couple of things to keep in mind is that guests don

I was imagining the scenario that I, as a guest, was surprised to realize the house only had a park grill. So Ken’s comment was fair. If the description clearly indicates what type of grill is at the property, then the guest should have no complaints. But as a property owner, you need to realize that it’s something that could turn away customers, so please make sure it’s explicitly mentioned and maybe include a photo, as most properties listings don’t devote any ink or photo to show the grill. And that comes down to another cost benefit analysis- if 1 in 10 potential guests choose not to book your house because of the lack of a propane grill, is it worth $300 to get one? 

So here is something to think about.  A host doesn't choose a park grill because they are too cheap to purchase a $300 propane grill.  (I guess some might but I would suggest those hosts don't really know how to run an STR properly anyway)  The issue is not cost.  My nice park grill is closer to $500 - as much as the Weber propane grills I have at other properties.  When you provide a charcoal grill you also should provide a metal bucket and a charcoal shovel to provide the guest an easy way to get the ashes out after using.  So it's not like there is just a cheap charcoal grill and no way to take care of the ashes just piling up.   There is also a portion of people that prefer a charcoal grill too so I think it balances out to some degree.  Just last week I was at one of my STRs which has a a nice Weber propane grill and when I went down under the deck someone left a brand new charcoal grill that they apparently bought on their trip to use instead of my Weber propane grill and left it behind.  

It also comes down to knowing your market.  In my market a charcoal grill will not impact my ADR or occupancy rate in any way and it is much easier to maintain.  Agreed that your type of grill should definitely be in the listing.