All Forum Posts by: V.G Jason
V.G Jason has started 15 posts and replied 3397 times.
Post: Will Mortgage Fraud Burst The Housing Bubble ? How Do You Prepare ?
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Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Do not think it's this that breaks the camel back.
It's likely something we don't expect.
Or the consistent inventory that delists by Oct/Nov, re-lists the following March coupled with new inventory that creates an inventory logjam.
It's also now not just rates that are preventing sellers from selling-- it's also being underwater on the loan.
And people just don't have the income to qualify. Even if rates were dropped, it won't be enough to offset the huge increase in the property, increased insurance costs increased tax costs. A lot of markets are maxed out. (not all markets of course, it's a big country, but a lot of markets are at too high of a debt to income level).
Inventory has doubled in Phoenix in the last couple of months. DOM over 90 is consistently growing. People aren't buying. The West Coast is slowing down.
Phoenix is like Sedona and Scottsdale-- peak season is probably Oct to March ish. So off-peak just to play devils advocate.
The reality is no one can afford houses at these rates, no one can afford to cut a check to get out from underwater if they re-fi'd in 20-22. What's the solution?
Post: Will Mortgage Fraud Burst The Housing Bubble ? How Do You Prepare ?
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Do not think it's this that breaks the camel back.
It's likely something we don't expect.
Or the consistent inventory that delists by Oct/Nov, re-lists the following March coupled with new inventory that creates an inventory logjam.
It's also now not just rates that are preventing sellers from selling-- it's also being underwater on the loan.
Post: How would you handle a tenant asking you to remove your shoes?
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I'd be ecstatic they're that rigid. And would suggest my PM to absolutely remove their shoes.
If they're a contractor doing work, I expect they know to bring shoe covers.
Great problem to have.
Post: Sacrificing my pandemic era mortgage rate for a crazy cash out refinance offer
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Quote from @Adam Michael Andrews:
You’re going to buy back a bond from them worth X and reissue one worth Y. The difference in value is going to be about $235k. I wouldn’t touch a 3% mortgage under pretty much any circumstance on a 30 year term. There’s no free lunch here, just you making a bet against bonds and doubling down on real estate. That may be a bet you want to make but thinking about it as “tax free $235k” is the wrong way to analyze it
That plus the asset is the debt, not the triplex. I hold onto the note before the property.
Assuming you have reserves for the property, if you want to convey your view as pro-property or pro other assets-- I would take the net cash flow from rentals and invest that eventually into another property/equities/assets,etc.
Last, but not least, you're likely not the sharp at the table but you have the best hand. The bank knows the 10 year is going to come down in the short term(3 months to 36 months) and are selling you it before it drops. Like Adam said you're betting against bonds. And I'm saying you're betting against the house, yet you have the pocket aces in hands. In the event the 10 year rises, your note is even more valuable for you to keep.
Don't fumble this one. It's never clear, especially not in this administration, but you'd be basically buying a falling knife in re-fi form.
Your return would need to be gross 10% to break-even(tax adjusted 7%).
Post: Do investors really hate being cold called?
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Quote from @S Arely Cavazos Serratos:
Totally get it — cold calls aren't anyone's favorite. We don't post listings on MLS, usually investors find most vaue on off market deals and the best investors I work with grab solid flips or rentals before they go public.
So how do you know someone has a great marketplace if they don't get the chance to pitch?
Post: Putting $1M into Crypto
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https://www.axios.com/2025/06/16/ice-cash-crisis-immigration...
I don't know why @Scott Trench
but I'm barred from posting in the thread regarding RE prices/administration policies. This is a point I made about funding being the limitation on deportation.
All the policies have unknown outputs. But strangely the more unknown is the materialization of the inputs.
The BTC market is in consolidation, much like the RE market. And honestly equities to a degree but need more time to see that.
I anticipate we nominate a dovish Fed-- I know wild take-- that'll widen the 2/10 year. Think net output the 10 year goes down. Just short term borrowing/liquid markets absorb all that "cash on the sidelines".
Meaning RE still lagging, and the underwater impact is more detrimental than rates at this point.
Would be good idea to do a mid year view on forwards. I'm thinking liquid markets rally, term markets will slowly decay. question is do opaque markets provide a tumble, rise, or are they the swan?
Think any drawdowns on BTC, still a proper long term buy.
Post: Home Payments as % of Median Income
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Anyone have a stat of the amount of price cuts, relist/delist yoy in major metros?
This is the end of peak seasonality for most markets and it's an egregious stall fest. Can't say we didn't see it coming.
I think the overlooked aspect isn't the rate lock, but also the underwater aspect.
Post: Where to invest $1.4m to maximize rent? (Paying cash)
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Quote from @Michael Fraulo:
How can you be so sure homes will continue to appreciate? Maybe in the long-term it will. But how long?
I just saw a post on BP about Nashville rents going down.
You know your specific market, but look at things from different angles see what makes the most sense for you. Good luck.
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/1246835-aski...
It's a term game.
you don't park in cash if you're trying to catch the underlying. This is what makes RE great; in regards to appreciation, etc., buying right is imperative.
@Shane Finnegan your strategy is sound I suggest you do what I've mentioned several times on this board. Put 70% of that cash in distressed and fix up then rent, by buying deep in good areas like Nashville, put 30% in short term mortgage notes. I know the latter is like a CD, yet higher, but great hedge to taper your entry into RE again on the event the rehab takes time, market turns bearish short term yet define your directional position.
I've done this in Nashville, among other areas, and my cost basis is so low and my capital has recycled. It's excellent and all-weather way to do it.
Another strategy which is leverage based. Is be 20% levered not 0%. Diversify in some STRs at 0%, LTRs at 50-60%. Keep cash against other forms of assets if it's truly retirement such as gold, equities, btc. Just a thought.
Post: Putting $1M into Crypto
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Bitcoin still going strong. As long as M2 is up and to the right, it'll fight any resistance like we saw last week when Trump/Elon briefly hit the markets. It's a great global pulse.
With that said, consumer staples & discretionary is in healthy ratio to remain neutral. But asset manager & s&p ratio is the widest it's ever been.
Just tells me their plays are not a lag and unfortunately could materially be a drag. That's a key indicator for the s&p.
I'm still here expecting a possible swan in all of this uncertainty. I'm net neutral everything now.
Think buying opps say where ive said it BTC, gold, real estate properly priced and levered. I'm not veering from that I know bonds are getting attention and rightfully so but rather allocate to those 3.
Post: What would you do? 1.5% rate difference on HELOC
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Quote from @Hali Snyder:
Quote from @Jonathan Greene:
Why are you focused on scaling when the only way you can scale is to take a second loan on your primary and burn all of your equity that you may need for something else (even if you are a high earner)?
Most people who talk about scaling now, when they only have a couple of properties, are watching too much content and not making enough contacts. What's the rush?
Any time you take a HELOC, you should only use 50 percent of what is available to you so you don't end up in a shortfall.
The focus on scaling at the moment is solely being driven by the desire to leave the industry that I'm currently in within the next 3-5 years and wanting to have the groundwork done so that my focus after this can be something that I actually enjoy again that isn't as mentally taxing. Rather than bumping into an issue after making that jump where lack of time in the current job may be an issue, it seemed to make more sense to have this part tackled ahead of time rather than taking years longer to do the exact same thing, then just paying the heloc off and doubling down on paying off the properties entirely once the heloc is paid. Obtaining the properties wont be rushed to a point where they're not the "right" ones and not cash flowing even after factoring in payment on the heloc, but I'd like to have access to the funds needed if/when something pops up that's perfect rather than being in a position where I would in theory have it in a few weeks, months, etc.
In regards to the 50% of availability, are you referring to 50% of the total equity or 50% of the max on the heloc regardless of which amount it's taken out for?
Fast solutions always have slow problems.
I get it, you want to leave your industry that you're in but this impulsive act of getting highly over levered to be in position to leave the job will make you need it more.
Really think this through.