All Forum Posts by: Aaron Gordy

Get cosigners and hold their parents responsible

@Jay Hinrichs Its zoned commercial by the county. Its right outside of Austin. I am going to send you a pm with @Campbell Key info. He is a superb agent that I sponsor but also a civil engineer that is very knowledgeable of the area as he is doing civil engineering work in the area.

@Greg R. I am sorry, man. Your numbers are inaccurate. Where do you get your data from? What is the source? Austin metro has the lowest unemployment in the state. It also is adding 100 employees daily which doesn't include their families. Source is Texas Workforce Commission. 2.8% is the unemployment. Demand is certainly outstripping supply for all things real estate here in the metro. Again, the invitation stands man. Come on down and I will show you and treat you to some of the best bbq that the city has to offer. The metro is in a boom! I will also show you a land listing that we have. Its for 2.5 mil for 6.5 acres. We will likely be in multiple offers as its near Tesla. It was inherited and I am not even going to talk about the appreciation that the family is getting over a 20 year hold as it will make anyone's head spin.  

The employment numbers are out from Texas Workforce Commission. Austin is at the lowest unemployment levels in the state at 2.8% decreasing on a month to month basis from 3.0. Year over year is a much clearer indication as to account for seasonal demand and that shows that Austin metro has decreased from 3.6% to the 2.8%. Overall the cumulative labor force has increased from on a year over year basis from 1,319,000 to 1,355,600 presently.  If you look at the less indicative month to month basis (it doesn't account for seasonal demand) the cumulative labor force has increased from 1,352,400 to 1,355,600. That indicates there are 106 new employees moving to the city daily on a month to month basis and 100 on an annual basis.  Once you factor in their families there are even more folks moving here daily. The unemployment numbers are super low. Any one that wants a job can get a job here. Boomtown! 

@Greg R.Not sure where you get your data from but its wrong. You live in Dallas. Its only a 2 hour drive. Come down and see all the construction that is going on to keep up with the demand and then argue that we are in a catastrophic period of the sky is falling. If you like I will show you the areas that are experiencing huge demand so that you can see firsthand and we can look at actual properties. The demand is real and the supply is definitely inadequate. I am trying to get as much as I can. 

@Jordan Moorhead Very cool! I agree. Now, if we can just convince everyone that folks that live in Austin Texas metro doesn't have cowboy boots, horses, cattle and an oil derrick.  : ) 

Prices have not decreased in Austin year over year.  People are still moving here. Austin cumulative labor force has increased from 40k year over year and pushing down unemployment to 3.0%. The gdp for the metro is the 2nd highest in the nation. There is so much construction going on around the metro to keep up with the demand that skilled trades are actually hard to find. 

Prices should be compared year over year to get an accurate reflection of the market. When there is seasonal demand the best reflection of the market is year over year. There are seasonal demand patterns in real estate that are best in a year over year basis.

For example, by the University of Texas Austin there are 50k+ students that attend. In July and August  rents pop as compared to many other parts of the year. In September and the following months the rents tend to adjust downwards since there is little demand for that submarket. So, if one looks at the numbers month to month there is always a big push in rents in the summer time and a decline in rents in the Fall. If I were to assume that month to month is a good gauge of the market then I would come to the conclusion that Austin metro is nuts.

But when one steps back that seasonal demand pattern is all over the US. The vast majority of home sales are during the summer time and so naturally the prices will go a little higher when the demand is the strongest.  Year over year is the best gauge when there is seasonal demand in any industry. 

You should also look at the days on market and also the close to list price ratio to get a really good gauge of the market. When there is 6+ months of inventory then there will be substantial blood in the water and the deals will be plentiful.  

 Ummm Austin is doing fairly well. Don't believe the noise. In the latest stats released yesterday from the Austin Board of Realtors there is still nice appreciation overall with some zip codes such as 78741 increasing at a 22% yoy clip. If one drives in that area one will see all the massive construction trying to keep up with the demand. That is just one example. There are some submarkets that didn't do as comparatively well but its not at all an indication of the overall market. Know your market. 

One of the most important things is knowing the product type that the property manager specializes in. Some are not good at 4plexes and are better suited for single family units. Some are better suited for office space as compared to residential. Make sure that the shoe fits with your property. For example, I have a 20 year property manager on staff. She is great at residential/multifamily but other forms of commercial such as office buildings, retail or industrial we would definitely refer out to folks that are experts. 

This is kind of old news but the real impact hadn't really hit me until I had a good conversation with an Economist friend.  Austin over the past 7 months or so has added direct flights to Amsterdam, London, Frankfurt, Vancouver and more recently Monterrey that flies out several times a week.  That indicates a significant international demand. The city is becoming more international daily.  https://www.kxan.com/news/loca..."

“Cities that are well-placed in terms of obtaining additional long-range air links end up with a greater number of business connections with distant places....The movement of people fosters the movement of capital: the ability to establish face-to-face contact between people is an important factor buttressing the ability to do business.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

Austin metro is taking off!