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All Forum Posts by: Patrick O'Sullivan

Patrick O'Sullivan has started 11 posts and replied 49 times.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12
Originally posted by @Thai Foo:
Great information all around.
@Johnson H. and @Patrick O'Sullivan , in your previous posts you mentioned C class properties and locations. Can you give a specific example of what you consider a C property/C location and/or C/B? Possibly a 2-4 plex currently on the Phoenix metro MLS? Thanks.

@Thai Foo

There isn't a map that I'm aware of but there are companies that rate areas based on location. One being Pierce-Eislen. If you're familiar with areas in Phoenix, I'd estimate 16th St and McDowell C class area, 16th St and Indian School B class and 16th St and Camelback A class. For building class, no amenities, 1980's and older would generally be C class property.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12
Originally posted by @Serge S.:
I am an AZ investor originally from the Bay Area and am familiar with both markets. I'd offer the following feedback on our current market in metro PHX:
The days of achieving the 2% rule AND appreciation are well behind us. Right now you will struggle achieving the 1% rule. Appreciation potential is speculative at best. You really MUST know what you are doing out here.
Be VERY cautious with the lower end 4plex properties in PHX. Our housing is very different than most of CA. The low end 4plex tenant is a different tenant in AZ than in CA. Remember that our average rents are already low. $700-$800 will generally get you into a low end but somewhat decent home. $600 will get you into a very nice condo with a ton of amenities. So that leaves the struggling rest of society to rent the $400-$500 2bd 4plex. To make matters worse, most 4plex communities in PHX are clustered next to each other. This means competition is vicious and there has been very little to no rent appreciation. The $500 2bd 4plex has been $500 since the 90s! Very different than the Bay Area. Tenants will bail to save $10 next door. Good luck with your screening process after you can't find a "qualified" tenant for 2 months. A "qualified" tenant doesn't look for a 1960s 4 plex in PHX, they either own or rent an SFR or a condo. This makes everything a challenge. Very unlikely to find revenue adds or value add improvements, forget water submettering and good luck consistently collecting app or late fees. Most owners I know face the vicious cycle of rent, evict (or midnight move) then capex followed by new lease to start that cycle all over. Every month there will be a surprise waiting for you; from the $500 water bill due to an unreported leak, sewer busting and the never ending AC repairs. That $2k gross rent and paper $1k cash flow is pretty much a pipe dream. Believe me that those 9-10% cap rates are not real. Last point on the low end 4plex market - most sellers are locals that bought 09-12 for literally $5-$15k per door. They are now reselling for $50k per door. They could not produce cash flow at the low basis and are now pushing their "investment" to the next guy. Most of that time the next guy is someone in CA thinking how could I go wrong at $50k a door. Get my point?

Seller financing does exist but its hard to find. Its probably not waiting on the MLS. I sold my 32 unit via seller financing to a BP member at a nearly 10% cap on actuals. It was a true win win sale. These deals can be found, I'm just not sure how they are found from a distance.

Metro PHX has run its course and the market is very dangerous right now. Most astute local investors are on the sidelines right now or have moved on to other markets. Inventory is very stagnant and I see much more downside than upside.

There are still opportunities in AZ but not in metro PHX so much. Unless your local and know each area , your chances of finding the right deal on Zillow or the MLS are pretty much non existent. Pinal County is adjacent to Maricopa county and its the 2nd fastest growing county in the US. There is still some cash flow in these markets but there are other challenges there. Generally, I would look to submarkets for cash flow before the metro. @Ben Leybovich - Ohio is starting look good:)

I'm not saying you cannot find a good small multifamily in PHX and I'm not trying to discourage in any way. I'm saying that your investment MUST to have the right combination of location and desirability to stand a chance of attracting the right tenants. If you can't attract the right tenant there is simply no money to be made here. My advice is to not be lured into the C class low end trying to get a paper non existent cap rate. Find a local that can guide you in street level warfare and look at the B class in areas not full of multifamily. Make sure you offer something nobody else does. Know your competitive advantage. I would take a desirable B class with a paper 6-7% cap that offers sustainable income and real value add opportunities than a C class showing a non existent 9-10% cap.

@Serge S.

Did that 32 unit happen to be in Florence by chance?

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12
Originally posted by @Eleanor V.:
@J. Martin are telling me that seller financed homes usually are higher priced and require more dp, then I'm rethinking that option. I don't think I'm ready for anything more than a 4plex right now. I'd like to get my feet wet with a small multifamily before I dive into 5+buildings.
@Patrick O'Sullivan Was thinking of selling AZ SFH rental and doing a 1031 exchange to get a 4plex around Tempe/Mesa but I am indeed seeing a buyers market right now so I think it would be best to hold on to the SFH rental for now. Hoping to purchase a 4plex in AZ by the year end though. Thanks for the info.

@Anthony Gayden , cash flow is primary concern but appreciation wouldn't hurt either. Thanks for info. Worth looking into Tucson

@Eleanor V.

If I were you, I'd take my overall market value of the homes less selling costs and use that figure to purchase a 4-plex you find on the market. You can look at it from many perspectives, including CAP rate, GRM, overall wealth accumulation, etc and see if that is something you'd rather have.

I'm in the middle of doing that for client right now, selling 3 homes in El Mirage and 3 in Laveen and he's looking to exchange the money into a multifamily property.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12
Originally posted by J. Martin:
Originally posted by @Anthony G.:

Originally posted by @Patrick O'Sullivan:

J. Martin

One example for you, I have a listing in escrow at $160,000. It's a 4-plex, rents are $2,000/mo. No deferred maintenance, C building in a C area. That's a 6.67 GRM. Cap rate in the 9% range.

These numbers are spot on for the 4 plex that I own in Phoenix. The thing is that I am seeing better deals in Tucson right now, higher rents, lower purchase prices, same quality.

I personally have come to believe that Phoenix multi-family is over priced. There are better deals to be had in Tucson.

Anthony, thanks for jumping in and confirming the numbers Patrick was talking about in his deals. What do you think about the longer-term trends, demographics, jobs, etc, for Tuscon vs Phoenix?

Patrick, do you look at anything in Tuscon? What do you think about that market?

@Yuliany W. and @Eleanor V. ,

Have you two considered the Tuscon market? Or more fixed on the specific areas you are looking for now? I don't know much about it, but looking forward to learning from these locals ;)

J. Martin,

I don't do anything in the Tucson area and am not familiar with it. Phoenix keeps me busy as it is. I recommend you find a CCIM that works down there. That really goes for any market an investor is looking in. We are trained to look at property from the investment perspective.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12

@Johnson H.

Overall vacancy rates have improved year over year. Rents have been ticking upwards as well, even on the $500/unit C class units. I see no deposit more common on the C class properties but some owners give tenants items like a free TV's or a gift card to Walmart to entice them in. The overall market is below 7% now, so in looking strictly at C class, it's going to be higher, likely in the 8-10% range.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12

@J. Martin

One example for you, I have a listing in escrow at $160,000. It's a 4-plex, rents are $2,000/mo. No deferred maintenance, C building in a C area. That's a 6.67 GRM. Cap rate in the 9% range.

Another example for you, a 4-plex in a great part of Phoenix, C building (recently renovated) in a B area sold for $280,000, rents were $2,700/mo cash, so 8.64 GRM. Cap rate I'd estimate in the 7% range.

These are turnkey options. You can do better if you look for distressed properties where you can add value like you did in your above example.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12

@Johnson H.

There are still some seller's out there reaching for the moon. I've seen it range as low as 6.5% for a recently well renovated and stabilized building to 7.5% on a building that would be stabilized but not recently renovated. On occasion you can do better, but those get snapped up quickly.

It's the early stages of buyer's market here, so I believe there is going more opportunities out there.

You can get better CAP rates in other markets, but there is also a reason why for that, whether it's population growth (or lack of), economy, general desire to live there, etc.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12

@J. Martin

I do come across a higher percentage of 5+ MF deals offering or willing to take seller financing. You will pay more for the property going the seller financing route than cashing out the seller through conventional financing or paying cash. That's the way it is in our market today. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Seller financing deals are typically 25%-40% down (I've closed a lot of these) so unless there is some other reason why a buyer can't get a conventional loan, I recommend exploring a conventional loan because then you have some leverage on the price.

There are no second mortgages in our market, so whether you go the seller financing route or conventional loan (I have a great lender I work with) you won't be able to get a loan on the part the seller won't finance. A frequent saying I've repeated many times to investors... in order to invest in real estate, you have to INVEST.

Post: Arizona Forum - SF Networking Summit Connections

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12

I do run into those on occassion. @Eleanor V. send me a connection request and I'll get you more information.

Post: Best states to buy n hold in

Patrick O'SullivanPosted
  • Real Estate Broker
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Posts 52
  • Votes 12

I am a bit biased being in Arizona but there are good properties in good areas that may not get the cap rates in other markets, but people like to live here and are coming to Arizona. Even with our recent increase in pricing, there are good homes and multifamily properties that reach the market and even others that never do. Many of the bigger players have left town so demand is down and is now considered a buyer's market for the most part. You just have to know what you want, be prepared to jump and jump quickly.

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