All Forum Posts by: Greg R.

Agreed with @Bill B.

@Greg R. check out this link showing Kiyosaki's predictions from 2011-2021+ https://ofdollarsanddata.com/t...

He's been making the same prediction for over a decade and I can only shake my head. People like him, Patrick Bet David, Peter Schiff, and a host of other people in the space have been "predicting" a crash for many years. I say this as a Kiyosaki fan that has read several of his books. 

https://seekingalpha.com/artic...

"For seven years now Mr. Schiff has been proclaiming the American economy was on the verge of collapse, the dollar was going to have a massive decline, and that gold and other commodities were going to skyrocket. For most of those seven years he has been wrong. Gold has been down huge the last two years, the dollar has not lost value and the American economy is stronger, not weaker. Like others before him, Mr. Schiff keeps repeating the same talking points, in hopes that at some point he will be right."

@Michael Mackney who is calling for the maintenance? If it's the property management company they might be wrongfully repairing non existing things. A good property can be easily ruined by management. Not saying this is the case but it happens often unfortunately. Easily look into another property management company.

The Last 2 housing crashes were 75 years apart. They are incredibly rare occurrences. Each of which were largely driven by a lack of the availability of credit and debt. 

Not only do we not have a lack of availability and debt, we have 100% exactly the opposite problem. A rapid increase in the money supply in Spring of 2020 has created large inflationary preasure. This has happened before in the early 1970s. The same result that happened then, is happening now....high inflation. High inflationary environments typically take about a decade to work themselves out.

@Greg R.

Serious question for you - what is your definition of "crash"?  Is it... the overall median US home price going down 10%, or 20%, or 50%?  Or... 20% or 50% declines in one or more large markets?  Or.... something else?

I certainly don't think a correction is impossible... nor do I think that prices will only increase... but, I'm personally a little confused about the whole market and honestly, not sure what to expect =-) prices are now SO MUCH HIGHER than they were even 5 years ago that a major "correction" would still leave them above that high watermark.

What do you think?

 @Greg R. Agree 100%. Look what I wrote earlier in the thread.

Hey everyone. I've had a duplex for the last 5 months in a C/C+ area. Original numbers and inspection report made it look like on paper that I would be cash flowing after raising rents to market rents but month after month so far, something maintenence wise comes up that leaves me in the red a few hundred a month after I calculate reserves, property management, etc. The market in the area has overall appreciated but I don't know if I can simply rely on appreciation to offset negative cash flow.

Should I sell with the appreciated price and use it as a learning experience before moving into an area that might have less maintenence issues or try and hold on to it?

Thank goodness they bought a home then or they’d be homeless. Rents are up 20-30% while their payment stayed the same. Sure they could sell and walk away with a pretty healthy gain. But rent would eat that up within a year or two and then back to homeless. 

You cant count the number of people who didn’t buy for the last 2 years because they were promised a housing crash was coming. Now prices are 30% higher and interest rates have doubled. They’ll never be able to buy a home, even if prices did drop 20%. They’re pretty much screwed for life. 

The “experts” have been predicting a crash for at least 12 years. They want to make sure they get credit for predicting it this time. The news made hero’s out of those who saw it last time and everyone wants to be a hero. So they runaround yelling fire fire fire. Go ahead and search BP for housing crash coming. Your computer will probably crash with the number of results. 

Hi @Greg R. I'm new to BP but not new to REI. OF course, no one knows what the market is going to do exactly. But by studying economic trends and considering market cycles, I do believe certain markets are going to slow significantly. Some may even crash. I'm already seeing it in certain areas with price reductions and DOM increasing. However, I take issue with your question in that there is no national REI market forecast just as there is no national weather forecast.  I mean, here in CO it is not uncommon for it to be sunny and clear skies in the front yard but raining in the backyard;) Just as it's not uncommon for one property to sit on the market where another still is sold with a bidding war. 

We must be experts in the markets we are investing in.  I do believe there will be some reckoning with those not using the sound principles of investing - particularly buying right aka buying at a discount.  And that will be an opportunity for the rest of us.

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.