All Forum Posts by: Greg R.

I respect and don't disagree with your thoughts on the market.  I also respect that you are trying to buy a house for your family and there are major challenges with doing that right now (particularly if a buyer is not selling a similar house).  I also respect that you have been burnt by market conditions in the past, I believe.

My messaging has nothing to do with most people or giving anyone credit...that's your words.  My messaging is for us...the people on this forum.  We are the subset!  And we are learning how to invest BECAUSE of market conditions.  If not what are we doing here?  I am about to make my largest investment ever; so, I am putting my money where my mouth is.  Could the market crash?  Sure.  I have never made the case that it will not and I have no issue or disagreement with you that it could.  That's a given and is table stakes for investing.  In fact, I have been clear that I have no idea what is going to happen.  My messaging - there are lots of ways to take advantage of the current market and insulate the downside risks.  We can talk about how crappy the market is or we can talk about what we are doing to succeed in the market.  We are not "most people"...there's Facebook and Twitter for that.

 That's a GREAT point Curtis! The post headline could have been a year or so ago that evictions fall nearly 98% vs previous year! Holy-cow, it "must" mean that tenants are loaded! And all rents can go up 50%, right, because nobody is getting evicted.....    Context is not something, it is EVERYTHING. 

It's clear the OP has already decided Real Estate is in a bubble, and therefore everything seen is just a supporting item, because the mind is already chosen the outcome and just needs the justifications for such.    

So Real Estate is in a bubble huh? Please, PLEASE riddle to me HOW? How is Real Estate in a bubble when the cost of all the items to construct that residence has risen by MORE then what Real Estate housing prices have? How is it a bubble when cost of labor has gone up MORE % then the cost of Real Estate? How is it a bubble when literally EVERYTHING to create that Real Estate has gone up at matching or more rate?    The very term "bubble" means an artificially inflated pricing level, this price increase in Real Estate is SUPPORTED, the cost of inputs are at same and more % level of increase then the Real Estate itself.    Look, to put it in 3rd grade level summary, when the cost of everything that goes into making a hamburger goes UP 300% in cost, yes, the hamburger will also go up AT LEAST 330%. It's basic economics, because the input costs have gone up AND the tax's paid increased, because tax's are based %, not by $ per unit.

Keynesian Economics states that for every dollar of increased input cost the impact to consumer will be $1.20. 

I get it, schools don't teach economics unless you go to a University, I get that, but simple common sense should tell someone feelings about prices does not = bubbles either. We are experiencing NOT price increase, it is NOT. This, today, the past year +, this is a economic RE-pricing, we are IN the correction. There is no correction coming, IT"S HERE. 

on the other hand, I thought about buying a home in 2006 in Virginia.  The lender told me that if I didn't buy a home right than, I would never own a house in my lifetime.  Strong words, and I hear some of those words floating around the market today.  Luckily I was an arrogant 20 something and got lucky when the market took a dump a few years later.

Appraisers is be been taking with all day there business is down 40-50%

JPOW fed rates tomorrow... and likely allllllll year long. 

More than likely YOU are not going to see any "slowing down" as people scramble to call you and stick a sign on their yard as equity vaporizes.... but "down" will likely be a key word to get used to hearing. Also, I wouldn't expect $BLK (Blackrock) and companies buying up the American Dream to come save the day anymore with their overbidding, either. Have you see the stock market?  SPY/SPX could lose 400's/4000's this week. Possible. 

We don't buy the "market", we buy individual properties.  Most of us don't buy properties where the market value would decline by an unacceptable amount.  Many of us buy properties where we add value that would offset most market correction scenarios.  And most of us buy properties where there is little to no risk of extended periods of vacancy.  I purchased properties in 2006 and 2007 that went through the biggest housing crash in history, they went down in value by 5% during the crash, have stayed fully occupied, and have skyrocketed in value since then.

No one is going to convince another that the market is going to be fine or that it is going to crash.  That is not the message or what matters for many investors.  What matters is what we do about it.

Wait. You’re saying there will be more foreclosures this year than last year which was the lowest number on record? So we won’t set a second straight record for lowest number of foreclosures? Defiantly end of the world news…

Foreclosure filings were down 29% from 2020 and down 95% from a peak of nearly 2.9 million in 2010, to the lowest level since tracking began in 2005, according ATTOM’s Year-End 2021 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, released this week.

The filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, were reported on 151,153 U.S. properties in 2021, and represented 0.11% of all U.S. housing units, down from 0.16% in 2020 and down from a peak of 2.23% in 2010

Also, people putting in offers 50-100k over asking was not for their "dream home". It was so they could get a home....of any kind.

@Greg R. That is correct. There were extremely limited circumstances that allowed those entities to foreclose or evict. There were almost none during that entire time. Only non-federally backed loans. 

Also forbearances and forbearance extensions were offered to pretty much ALL borrowers, current or not.