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All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

Jay Hinrichs has started 325 posts and replied 41523 times.

Post: Detroit Tarrifs is now the time for a rebirth and new look @ this market

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Andrew Syrios:

I just googled and it looks like a bunch of plants have been closed for many decades. Packard closed in 1956, Motor City Industrial Park closed in 1999, Doverfield closed in 2014. Apparently there are 900 vacant and mostly abandoned manufacturing sites in Detroit, most of which have been abandoned for decades. https://www.freep.com/story/money/business/john-gallagher/20...

Given Detroit still has high crime, lots of blight and governance problems, I suspect if the auto industry is reshored it will mostly go elsewhere. (Toyota and Honda, for example, mostly build plants in the southeast and midwest, Tesla in California and Texas, etc.)


One issue is a stat I heard when I was activly lending in Detroit..  unemplyment or will never be employed is somewhere like 40% of the men in the inner city.  So how do they turn that around and get those folks working again ?

Post: Detroit Tarrifs is now the time for a rebirth and new look @ this market

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Ying Tang:

@James Hamling It's possible though, given the average value would include people that are super rich. The median number make more sense in this case. Note that ChatGPT is also coming up with the 29400 number, following up with other sources which make more sense. With Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc being the largest cities in China, how can the national average be much higher than those large cities? 


My client in Singapore was comparing wages to his factories in Malaysia and Vietnam . We toured one of them right across the bridge from Singapore.  the industrial park had many if not 100 small factories making all sorts of stuff.. His business is making components for bosch/black and decker electric motor parts for GE etc etc.. all those little peices that need to be made on 1 mil dollar machines and he had about 50 of those on the floor of his building. 

From what I saw just massive amounts of small shops making all sorts of little widgets.. Although my clients have to meet a very strict standard other wise big companies would boot them. 

Post: In search for flexible hard money lenders in my area

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Bernard Wallace:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Austin Duncan:

If you can't find any solution on this platform, you should definitely check out Pace Morby's groups. He's the Creative Finance guy and those individuals in those fb groups know exactly what you're trying to accomplish. 

Hope this helps.


I agree with this.  a lot of beginners and small time players / lenders .. so this could work plus they are not the sharpest tools in the shed compared to experienced lenders who would find this quite unattractive as a loan.

I’ll be real with you comments like “small time players” and “not the sharpest tools” aren’t necessary, especially when people are out here actually doing the work.

Let me show you what “small time” looks like:

Property purchased for $52,000

I personally invested $32,000 in rehab

  • Project is nearly finished
  • Set to sell for $165,000
  • That leaves a spread of $81,000
  • Even with a $20K–$25K loan, the profit still clears well after loan costs — and that’s with me using real numbers, not hypotheticals

So to say this deal isn’t attractive or that it takes someone “sharp” to see value in it is unnecessary .In reality, a smaller loan here makes more sense than overleveraging on a bigger one. Not every deal needs to be oversized to be profitable  it just needs to be smart.

I’m not here to prove anything, just to get things done. If this deal doesn’t work for you, that’s fine  but don’t downplay real efforts when the math speaks for itself.

So if that’s what you consider “small time” or “not the sharpest tool,” maybe the real problem isn’t the player  it’s the lens you’re looking through.


Mr. Wallace.. I apologize that you took my response like it was meant to demean you personally.  I was not referring to you at all or your deal.

What I was referring to as "small time" and not the "sharpest tools" Was the Pace Morby members who are engaged in EM lending ( gator lending) and small balance loans like what you need.  Further Agreeing with @Austin Duncan suggestion to reach out to the Morby Group.

For your deal with most HML you will have challenges in loan size and fico.. So everyone is going to encourage you to refi the whole loan charge you a bunch in fees and interest when in fact your only 13k or so from solving your problem.. Better to pay interest on 13k then to run up 10k or more in transaction costs refinancing this project. And I assume your exit is a sale.

So there ya go.. Hope that clears the air here.. and I wish you the best with it.. My mom was born in Milwaukee and we go there frequently for the state fair .  My cousins live out at Peewaukee so I am fond of the area.. Spent my summers there with my grandparents in the 60s.

As for doing the work I fund about 200 deals a year just like this in 7 markets.. So I know the work involved and appreciate how tough it is etc. In addition I own a 90 home new build project in Oregon and I know how hard that work is as well borrowing millions and delivering 700 to 1mil dollar homes to picky homeowners LOL.. It all goes good we make a pretty nice return.. it goes bad I go broke.

Post: Cash Flow Killers in Real Estate (And How to Avoid Them!)

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Colin Tandy:
Quote from @Ryan Spath:

Well explained. We can attest to 1&2 directly as we have properties in Florida and both of  these line items have exploded over the past 3 years!

Totally agree with the type of property and the relationship of higher returns and more work! 

Great Post! Thanks for Sharing!


Appreciate that! Florida has definitely seen some major increases in insurance and property taxes, it’s been a real challenge for investors to navigate. Have you found any strategies to offset those rising costs on your properties?

And yes, higher returns often come with more hands-on management. It’s always a balance between cash flow and effort. Glad you found the post valuable!


collin what kind of strategies are you talking about to offset taxs and insurance ..  I mean this is not rocket science U simply take in more than you spend.. Tax's I guess you can dispute them annually in some states.. Insurance you simply dial for dollars.  

Post: 7M$+ NPL While sourcing - What would you do?

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930

full balance in this scenario I suspect is mission impossible.

@chris

Post: Detroit Tarrifs is now the time for a rebirth and new look @ this market

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @John Clark:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

whats the reality of Auto industry popping back up in this area.. can the existing factories be put back into service in a  reasonable amount of time.. Will Detroit and MI  fast track any new facilities like Texas did for Tesla.. ?

Could now be the time to jump back in and buy in the very best school districts ? 

Econ 101. The tariffs are going to crater the economy and hit the auto industry very hard. 

well I bet the used car business will benefit then.. just like what happened in Covid.

Post: In search for flexible hard money lenders in my area

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Austin Duncan:

If you can't find any solution on this platform, you should definitely check out Pace Morby's groups. He's the Creative Finance guy and those individuals in those fb groups know exactly what you're trying to accomplish. 

Hope this helps.


I agree with this.  a lot of beginners and small time players / lenders .. so this could work plus they are not the sharpest tools in the shed compared to experienced lenders who would find this quite unattractive as a loan.

Post: Detroit Tarrifs is now the time for a rebirth and new look @ this market

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Travis Timmons:

If and only if those making decisions have certainty that a consistent tariff policy will be in place for years to come. What if you make a hundreds of millions-billions+ investment and policy decisions are reversed in a month, year, or in the next presidency. The average auto worker in the US makes $70 per hour. The average auto worker in Mexico makes $6 per hour. That's a big gap to fill and a lot of money to spend without some reassurance of long term stable policy (not making a case for either here...just that the rules of the game need to be known before major capital investments are made).


not sure about Mexican hourly income.. But I do know ( as I have a client who owns 7 factories in Asia with 40k employees) And last time I was in Singapore we discussed how he is leaving China as the wages are too high and almost as high as US .  And thats why there is a burgeoning middle class in China .. When I was on the same trip I spent 10 days in Thailand and it was at Chinese new year and there were thousands of Chinese vacationing and staying and I suspect our hotel ( at Hilton) was 70% Chinese  so much so that they had their own buffet :)

Post: Detroit Tarrifs is now the time for a rebirth and new look @ this market

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Drew Sygit:

Bringing manufacturing back to the US should be good news for the middle class!

Of course, there will be short-term pain to get there.

Detroit still has some of the best engineering & manufacturing resources in the country, so it'd be an obvious place to start.

If Mayor Duggan was staying in office, I'd be very confident he'd make it very appealing for companies to do business in Detroit. 

Willing to bet that whomever replace him will have some Big Business backing, so would be shocked if Detroit didn't welcome manufacturing opportunities with open arms!

Interesting story connected to this - Stellantis (formerly Chrysler) is restarting a plant and it's estiamted will take 2 years.

https://www.automotivemanufacturingsolutions.com/stellantis/...


ARe there mothballed plants that can get up in running say by the end of this year ??? 

Post: Raising Private Capital from SDIRAs & HSAs

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930

ON the ubit /udfi I always throw it back on the investor make them check with their own CPA I dont want to take on liability giving tax advice.

Also starting out in my experience this is very belly to belly. With no experience I found I had to start with warm contacts  you know people you know well.. and or your own money get some wins.. then expand from there.. contributing your own cash to deals up front can be very beneficial.

However on the flip side if you have no track record and No real cash of your own ..  then this becomes almost mission impossible out in the open market your competition for the same dollars will eat your lunch.

Obviously we have no clue about you or your finances but this is how I did it and its a long process took me personally years and decades.