All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

@Jay Hinrichs Thanks Jay! The property itself is sharing boundary with a park, and a there is a stadium (not a big one) 2 minutes away. The distance to the cemetery is about 0.2 miles. But this cemetery is huge from satellite view. What do you think?

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

We don't have the labor to make more things in the US. 

We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?

And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.

I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.

The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor.  Video.

I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.

Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

I think back to the auto products of the 70s  detroit was putting out JUNK with the exception of their pick up trucks.. to me that opened the door for japan and their quality vehicles to really take off.. I suspect a lot of BP members are too young to have been buying a car in the 70s.. but it was not uncommon to buy a new buick and within 30 days have 17 things wrong with it.. or like when they tried to convert gas to diesel engines and those things blew up in 10k miles..  To me Detroit in those days fubared themselves.. I know in 79 I bought a brand new turbo diesel MBZ for probably 3X what an american car would have cost but I drove it for 150k miles then gave it to my parents who put another 150k on it.. other than window units and airconditioner tires and brakes we drove that thing for 20 years.  a 79 American made could never do that.  Along with anyone who has owned toyota products etc. 

Yup, you go to Munich literally every taxi is a Mercedes. Because cost/mile over their twice as long lifespan they are cheaper.

California has been trying to build a high-speed train from LA to SF for over 20 years. I just watched a video about how the project struggled against environmental laws and regulation, budget explosions, complete disaster.. we burned so much money and it does not look like it will happen after all.

Meanwhile, China has built 13,000 miles of high-speed trains in the last 15 years. They are super modern, absolutely whisper quiet inside and make travelling very cheap and easy. 

Infrastructure is a catalyst for a thriving economy. 

We start to look like a developing country..

Thanks for posting @Ken M.!

Investors just need to remember to understand the different Classes of rentals/tenants/contractors/etc. so their expectations are aligned with reality:)

Unless the the house is in the cemetery, probably not much.

The data are pretty inconsistent—some indicate slightly lower values and some indicate slightly higher. My general assumption is that there will be very few people that would just not consider a house near a cemetery but it's a non-sequiter for most.

12% Lower: https://www.adammerrick.com/blog/2020/10/20/the-pros-and-cons-of-buying-a-property-near-a-cemetery

6% Higher: https://www.redfin.com/blog/i-see-dead-people-do-homes-near-cemeteries-sell-well/

 I'm not sure that's entirely fair 😜 I think what Jay has advocated against more than anything is the newbie with no job, no money and no experience that wants to parachute into Detroit and walk away Scrooge McDuck. When you have houses being advertised for a dollar it encourages that kind of thing.

Wow, Jay. Saying something upbeat and positive about the possibilities and future of the Detroit market? I’m flabbergasted. You’ve been one of Detroit’s biggest critics on BP since my husband and I began turning water into wine, building SFRs and MFRs in Detroit six years ago, and I started dabbling on the platform.

First off, the rebirth of Detroit began around 2008–2009. Not sure how you missed the memo on that one. But it would indeed be epic and huge for Motor City, or “Comeback City,” as we like to call it.

And yes, Trump’s tariffs could absolutely turbocharge the Detroit auto industry and breathe new life into the city’s historic factories. Trump says a lot and does a lot, but advocating to bring back the auto industry to Detroit has consistently been one of his top 10 to 20 priorities since he came down that escalator. One might even argue it was a campaign promise during the last election cycle.

Let’s not forget Trump’s Treasury Secretary, who helped orchestrate the tariffs, is widely regarded as one of the most highly respected macro hedge fund managers in the world.

Not only are interest rates projected to drop significantly, but due to those same tariffs and broader economic policy, he’s already maneuvered $3 to $5 trillion in investment commitments that have flowed into the U.S. since taking office—yes, trillion.

Manufacturing, clean energy, AI, and infrastructure are now attracting global capital, with Detroit back on the map as a high-growth hub.

Additionally, Detroit was recently named the number one most undervalued housing market in the U.S., followed by Cleveland, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Oklahoma City. The Big D also ranked second in the nation for average home price increases since the pandemic. The stage is set.

Winter is just now wrapping up here. It’s been long and cold, but we Michiganders (or Michiganians) weren’t phased. Life went on, and the building never stopped. Construction remained strong and steady, as usual.

As for whether we can get the factories up and running in a reasonable timeframe, sure, Gretchen may kick and scream and be a minor obstacle at first, but she’d be writing herself a one-way ticket out of Michigan if she didn’t fully embrace an opportunity of this magnitude for the strong-spirited people of Detroit and Michigan.

And honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Trump’s close friend Elon, or other major players, started expediting the development of one or more facilities in Detroit, similar to what was done in Texas. I mean, it’s just common sense.

When it comes to smart purchasing near strong school districts, hospital access, and proximity to revitalized areas, Detroit is full of promising zones. Look at the fringes of so many historic districts: Dexter-Linwood with its massive revitalization in 48206 and 48238. Not to mention 48204 off Grand River, 48227 off Greenfield, Indian Village, 48224 in Morningside and East English. Not to mention Hamtramck, Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Birmingham, Farmington Hills, Clinton Township and the list goes on.

Deals, deals, and more deals are happening throughout Detroit and Metro Detroit.

Detroit is BRRRR heaven.

Sounds like Boise.  That might not be an easy one.  Who's going to finish the project?  You might not have a big or any choice of contractors.  They're probably mad already at not getting paid on their outstanding invoices.  Might cost you a lot of steak dinners and bottles of Crown Royal to get them back in gear, but it will now cost more than the original quotes I expect.

Good luck and best wishes.

We don't have the labor to make more things in the US. 

We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?

And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.

I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.

The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor.  Video.

I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.

Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

 Can you say more please ? Why don’t the banks report to fico for your lines of credit?