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All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

Jay Hinrichs has started 325 posts and replied 41523 times.

Post: Pace Morby Mentorship

Jay Hinrichs
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Posted
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  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
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Quote from @Chris Seveney:

@moderators can we close this post - its gotten out of control.


yes we know Ken and Nates position on Pace Morby its well documented :)  And Nate seems to mainly post his from my view point over the top personal opinions. Not much on real estate related specifics. Just sayin. 

Post: Is it a Buyer's Market in your niche/town?

Jay Hinrichs
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Posted
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  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
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Quote from @Jeremy Horton:

Here in Lafayette Louisiana it depends on the exact location and the "quality" of the home. Regardless I am seeing a lot more price drops and longer DOM than the past few years. 

I recently listed a property for sale, good location, size etc - but needs a bit of work. Offers consistently asked 4-8k at closing, ~10-15k price drop, and to pay for the buyers agent (3%). What it appears is that no one has cash to bring to the closing. I had the house go under a contract a couple times - I adjusted the purchase price and essentially financed what the buyer was asking into the purchase price (w/ the realtor commission being based on the original price)

I've decided to make the repairs, do some upgrades and rent it out again for the next year. Repairs/upgrades will be made this week

What gets me is the offers are well below what the house would appraise for - it appraised for 193k in 2023 for reference. I don't think we've seen a decrease in house price where I live that would back-up the current offers. 

New suburb areas are continuing new construction - a small rental neighborhood should be coming online, a couple of luxury apartment complexes finishing up - so there is activity but it is primarily on the higher end of things from what I can see. DSLD has also just purchased a ton of land between two small cities outside of Lafayette, so I expect to see that completely built up in the next 5 or so years. 


when I was funding retail flips in the south  ( jackson MS  birmingham and parts of texas) houses always sold back of appraisals and rare was a sale made that did not have seller concessions. At least for the starter or lower end housing I was financing for flippers.

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Don Konipol:

Before MLS went digital, before it went online and was available to everybody, mediocre to bad agents could still close enough deals to make a living if they worked long enough hours, because they had the "keys" to the kingdom. Now, where ADDING VALUE is required, the 90% of the lousy, lazy, and even mediocre agents have no special "sauce" provided merely by being licensed.

Yeah, the 'good ole days', eh? That was when the MLS came out weekly as a paper magazine remember? Kinda like Auto Trader.....And if you wanted to see what was available for sale on the market, you HAD to have a Realtor. Same for sellers pretty much unless they wanted to just advertise in the paper, but then there would be almost zero traffic. So yeah, Realtors were absolutely necessary!

And therefore even a bad one could make some sort of living.....

The classified ads in the major newspapers had a homes for sale area where all the big Realtors would take full page ads to showcase their listings. Additionally, they'd advertise individual home listings in those little 1/8 page columns. Some newspapers had a separate "FSBO" area where the FSBO was guaranteed at least 50 calls Monday morning - from Realtors wanting to list their property.
Previewing homes for Realtors was much more important then, as up u til the beginning 1980s the MLS book didn't even include photos.
Since I was in commercial real estate from the beginning of my real estate career (1978) I was only involved in residential when I personally wanted to purchase a SFR for investment.

I know a lot of people think they can do everything a broker representing them can do, and believe they can save the commission.  Here is my (admittedly biased) opinion after 45 years in real estate 

1. Most people are TERRIBLE at negotiation. 
2. These same people incorrectly believe that they are Great negotiators. 

More than just “leaving money on the table”, people who are inexperienced, lack knowledge, or just plain lousy at negotiating don’t even realize  when they lose a deal that could have been concluded by their incompetence.  And that’s not even considering the emotional “detrimental effect” that comes into play when attempting to negotiate their own home transaction. 

Don this brings back memories.. when I started in 75. The SF chronicle had classifieds like your talking about and then they had a section for Land out of area. And that could be half a page from Brokers all over CA ( and you know how large CA is) I had a 4 line add every day for about 10 years and an 800 # which again was rare amongst my local competition in the county I was working in.. ( 2.5 hours north of SF ) by about early 90s . classified in the SF paper was a fraction and the out of area land was down to about maybe 3 or 4 adds.. Out of state same thing just a few adds.. But I always followed out of state looking for Oregon Timber deals.. back then many in Oregon thought that CA folks were stupid and would over pay for Oregon property so they would run an add.. Well many of these fisbo's had no clue as to what their timber was worth .. And we scored some massive deals by watching the SF want adds. Just paying what they were asking.. But hey they saved on commish but lost 200 to 500k on timber value .. but you know got to save that commission :) And it was not only fsbo's in those days many realtors had no clue either and would just comp an acreage with timber as a SFR on one acre since that's all a bank would loan against for owner occ.. of course we had alternate financing and a banker that understood timber and or we would pre sell the timber on a Timber deed to the Mill as NO INTEREST NO POINTS. Man I get excited just thinking about those days.. I mean on some of these we literally bought the whole property and home with 100% financing from the mill with zero holding costs.. Just deliver logs to pay the timber deed off etc. this is what I love about RE lots of ways to skin a cat..

Very interesting; those kind of deals are a lot more difficult to find these days because of information availability, especially on line.  I remember what we had to go through to first find out what the procedure was for any locale we were interested in as to how to bid on a tax lien or tax certificate or tax foreclosure - heck even the people working at the taxing authority had absolutely no clue - and then to go down to the property records, look up a property via LEGAL DESCRIPTION,(Lot, Block, Subdivision), check out the correct MICROFISH, then find the section with the correct RECORDING NUMBER, then actually be able to correctly INTERPRET the information found…… I remember the whole thing with driving time, waiting etc taking 4-5 hours to get information on 4 or 5 properties.  Of course if you had a good relationship with a title company they could do it for you, and you’d get the information a mere 2 weeks later. 

my dads RE attorney told me when I started He said go learn the court house thats where the money is made.. and we see that in our industry.. Its a distinct advantage if you have some working knowledge of title process's etc. I find when I do business on the east coast and in attorney closing dominated states the average Agent or investor has NO CLUE how title and courthouse works.. they just hand the contract to the closing attorney and DUCK.. Even in Chicago I see repair addendums come through NOT written by the agent but written by the attorney. I just shutter to think about how many deals get killed by attorneys trying to negotiate contracts for homeowners on repairs  LOL

Looking at a property right now where the owner is the agent, they are in foreclosure, owe over $60k in HOA fees - we know what they paid for it and its not worth much more than what they paid but are asking for $400k more (2x) - my agent has been speaking with their agent and they noted they have a full price offer.... My agent said why did you not accept it then since you are in default and accruing all these fees. I love when agents are completely dishonest. They asked us for best and final so we went lower than the last offer.


the take away close very effective in certain situations. 

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Don Konipol:

Before MLS went digital, before it went online and was available to everybody, mediocre to bad agents could still close enough deals to make a living if they worked long enough hours, because they had the "keys" to the kingdom. Now, where ADDING VALUE is required, the 90% of the lousy, lazy, and even mediocre agents have no special "sauce" provided merely by being licensed.

Yeah, the 'good ole days', eh? That was when the MLS came out weekly as a paper magazine remember? Kinda like Auto Trader.....And if you wanted to see what was available for sale on the market, you HAD to have a Realtor. Same for sellers pretty much unless they wanted to just advertise in the paper, but then there would be almost zero traffic. So yeah, Realtors were absolutely necessary!

And therefore even a bad one could make some sort of living.....

The classified ads in the major newspapers had a homes for sale area where all the big Realtors would take full page ads to showcase their listings. Additionally, they'd advertise individual home listings in those little 1/8 page columns. Some newspapers had a separate "FSBO" area where the FSBO was guaranteed at least 50 calls Monday morning - from Realtors wanting to list their property.
Previewing homes for Realtors was much more important then, as up u til the beginning 1980s the MLS book didn't even include photos.
Since I was in commercial real estate from the beginning of my real estate career (1978) I was only involved in residential when I personally wanted to purchase a SFR for investment.

I know a lot of people think they can do everything a broker representing them can do, and believe they can save the commission.  Here is my (admittedly biased) opinion after 45 years in real estate 

1. Most people are TERRIBLE at negotiation. 
2. These same people incorrectly believe that they are Great negotiators. 

More than just “leaving money on the table”, people who are inexperienced, lack knowledge, or just plain lousy at negotiating don’t even realize  when they lose a deal that could have been concluded by their incompetence.  And that’s not even considering the emotional “detrimental effect” that comes into play when attempting to negotiate their own home transaction. 

Don this brings back memories.. when I started in 75. The SF chronicle had classifieds like your talking about and then they had a section for Land out of area. And that could be half a page from Brokers all over CA ( and you know how large CA is) I had a 4 line add every day for about 10 years and an 800 # which again was rare amongst my local competition in the county I was working in.. ( 2.5 hours north of SF ) by about early 90s . classified in the SF paper was a fraction and the out of area land was down to about maybe 3 or 4 adds.. Out of state same thing just a few adds.. But I always followed out of state looking for Oregon Timber deals.. back then many in Oregon thought that CA folks were stupid and would over pay for Oregon property so they would run an add.. Well many of these fisbo's had no clue as to what their timber was worth .. And we scored some massive deals by watching the SF want adds. Just paying what they were asking.. But hey they saved on commish but lost 200 to 500k on timber value .. but you know got to save that commission :) And it was not only fsbo's in those days many realtors had no clue either and would just comp an acreage with timber as a SFR on one acre since that's all a bank would loan against for owner occ.. of course we had alternate financing and a banker that understood timber and or we would pre sell the timber on a Timber deed to the Mill as NO INTEREST NO POINTS. Man I get excited just thinking about those days.. I mean on some of these we literally bought the whole property and home with 100% financing from the mill with zero holding costs.. Just deliver logs to pay the timber deed off etc. this is what I love about RE lots of ways to skin a cat..

Very interesting; those kind of deals are a lot more difficult to find these days because of information availability, especially on line.  I remember what we had to go through to first find out what the procedure was for any locale we were interested in as to how to bid on a tax lien or tax certificate or tax foreclosure - heck even the people working at the taxing authority had absolutely no clue - and then to go down to the property records, look up a property via LEGAL DESCRIPTION,(Lot, Block, Subdivision), check out the correct MICROFISH, then find the section with the correct RECORDING NUMBER, then actually be able to correctly INTERPRET the information found…… I remember the whole thing with driving time, waiting etc taking 4-5 hours to get information on 4 or 5 properties.  Of course if you had a good relationship with a title company they could do it for you, and you’d get the information a mere 2 weeks later. 

my dads RE attorney told me when I started He said go learn the court house thats where the money is made.. and we see that in our industry.. Its a distinct advantage if you have some working knowledge of title process's etc. I find when I do business on the east coast and in attorney closing dominated states the average Agent or investor has NO CLUE how title and courthouse works.. they just hand the contract to the closing attorney and DUCK.. Even in Chicago I see repair addendums come through NOT written by the agent but written by the attorney. I just shutter to think about how many deals get killed by attorneys trying to negotiate contracts for homeowners on repairs  LOL

Post: Why Aren’t More Investors Building Instead of Buying?

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Joe S.:
Quote from @Account Closed:

I am a local gold miner here in Mali, I am looking for serious global buyers for my gold. I live in Sikasso a village over here in Mali. If you are a serious buyer I welcome the opportunity to discuss how I can meet your gold supply need Whatsapp +22871231064


 What you just advertised is not relevant to this thread.  maybe you should start a new thread just with that instead of sabotaging this thread. 


I had a very short term bizz partner who fell for the gold in Mali scam.. he flys over there spends a few months and big waste of time.. but with the social situation there I think he enjoyed himself even though the gold was BLOOD gold being hand dug by kids and women.

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @Travis Biziorek:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @Devin James:

There’s been a lot of talk about declining birth rates in the U.S., how will this impact housing demand in the long run?

I brought it up to a friend this morning, saying I was concerned about what a smaller population could mean for the market.

He made a great point: immigration will offset that decline.

Fewer people being born, but potentially more people moving in.

Has anyone else thought about this when looking ahead at the housing market?

Population trends do affect housing, but they are a lagging indicator. That is, the decline is only realized after the population shifts enough to matter for that market over quite a long time period. 

Detroit had a population of 1,800,000 people in the 1950s and was the most valuable city in the USA. I don't believe anybody makes that claim about Detroit today. 

There are more vacant houses there than fleas on a camel.

The irony of this post is off the charts.

Detroit is actually doing very well today. People are just stuck in their lagging narratives to realize it. 

Ask me how I know.

It isn't Detroit that is doing well, it's the suburbs. And it is by no means what it was in the 1950's. So, by your reasoning, if you buy today and wait long enough, you will be fine. Go for it.

Tell us, how many vacant houses in the city of Detroit? How many of those actually are tear downs?

they dont tear them down the kids burn them down on witching night.. google it Ken .. I know you know alot about most things but you may not be aware of witching night in Detroit.
.
Actually, I have heard of witching night but I haven't experienced it. Thank God.

Your talking about Devil's Night? 


yup  Devils not witching my bad.. seen it first hand though.. for those that dont know.. day after holloween the kids go wild and set fire to hundreds of vacant homes in Detroit.. ERGO Devils night.

Post: Looking for small developer to partner with in Oregon

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Christopher Pride:

Hi I am looking to develop 4 plex properties in the SW corner of Oregon. I have experience with fix and flips and I'm about to be (re) licensed as a Broker in Oregon.  I have never done a ground up build. I am looking forward to the challenge but could use the advice of someone more experienced.

The plan: Have close to 200k to put in, willing to do leg-work to buy land, get permits, build (likely modular/manufactured), finish, rent for 2 years and flip.  I could use someone with experience to mentor, help with financing hurdles, and advice throughout the process.  

I would also consider a larger or long-term project including buying and bifurcating, building in phases and other methods depending on property, opportunity and market conditions.

 @Jay Hinrichs - no anyone who may be interested?


Chris thanks for thinking of me.. Brookings is very remote spot of Oregon so there is going to be limited access to investors etc.  My suggestion would maybe the OP goes to some meet ups in Grants Pass or Medford  the closer to the project the more enthused investors will be. Spec building for someone with Zero experience will be tough with Oregon banks.. However some of the larger HML on the West coast might take a swing.

Conventus
Iron Bridge
Kiavi 

But you know rural is a tough nut to crack.. Beautiful area but as I said quite remote. I like the Modular home play though.. getting subs on the Oregon coast is really tough.. Even up in our area that is only 90 minutes from PDX . Brookings is 6 hours :)  

Post: Comically Bad Realtors

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Don Konipol:

Before MLS went digital, before it went online and was available to everybody, mediocre to bad agents could still close enough deals to make a living if they worked long enough hours, because they had the "keys" to the kingdom. Now, where ADDING VALUE is required, the 90% of the lousy, lazy, and even mediocre agents have no special "sauce" provided merely by being licensed.

Yeah, the 'good ole days', eh? That was when the MLS came out weekly as a paper magazine remember? Kinda like Auto Trader.....And if you wanted to see what was available for sale on the market, you HAD to have a Realtor. Same for sellers pretty much unless they wanted to just advertise in the paper, but then there would be almost zero traffic. So yeah, Realtors were absolutely necessary!

And therefore even a bad one could make some sort of living.....

The classified ads in the major newspapers had a homes for sale area where all the big Realtors would take full page ads to showcase their listings. Additionally, they'd advertise individual home listings in those little 1/8 page columns. Some newspapers had a separate "FSBO" area where the FSBO was guaranteed at least 50 calls Monday morning - from Realtors wanting to list their property.
Previewing homes for Realtors was much more important then, as up u til the beginning 1980s the MLS book didn't even include photos.
Since I was in commercial real estate from the beginning of my real estate career (1978) I was only involved in residential when I personally wanted to purchase a SFR for investment.

I know a lot of people think they can do everything a broker representing them can do, and believe they can save the commission.  Here is my (admittedly biased) opinion after 45 years in real estate 

1. Most people are TERRIBLE at negotiation. 
2. These same people incorrectly believe that they are Great negotiators. 

More than just “leaving money on the table”, people who are inexperienced, lack knowledge, or just plain lousy at negotiating don’t even realize  when they lose a deal that could have been concluded by their incompetence.  And that’s not even considering the emotional “detrimental effect” that comes into play when attempting to negotiate their own home transaction. 

Don this brings back memories.. when I started in 75. The SF chronicle had classifieds like your talking about and then they had a section for Land out of area. And that could be half a page from Brokers all over CA ( and you know how large CA is) I had a 4 line add every day for about 10 years and an 800 # which again was rare amongst my local competition in the county I was working in.. ( 2.5 hours north of SF ) by about early 90s . classified in the SF paper was a fraction and the out of area land was down to about maybe 3 or 4 adds.. Out of state same thing just a few adds.. But I always followed out of state looking for Oregon Timber deals.. back then many in Oregon thought that CA folks were stupid and would over pay for Oregon property so they would run an add.. Well many of these fisbo's had no clue as to what their timber was worth .. And we scored some massive deals by watching the SF want adds. Just paying what they were asking.. But hey they saved on commish but lost 200 to 500k on timber value .. but you know got to save that commission :) And it was not only fsbo's in those days many realtors had no clue either and would just comp an acreage with timber as a SFR on one acre since that's all a bank would loan against for owner occ.. of course we had alternate financing and a banker that understood timber and or we would pre sell the timber on a Timber deed to the Mill as NO INTEREST NO POINTS. Man I get excited just thinking about those days.. I mean on some of these we literally bought the whole property and home with 100% financing from the mill with zero holding costs.. Just deliver logs to pay the timber deed off etc. this is what I love about RE lots of ways to skin a cat..

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @Travis Biziorek:
Quote from @Ken M.:
Quote from @Devin James:

There’s been a lot of talk about declining birth rates in the U.S., how will this impact housing demand in the long run?

I brought it up to a friend this morning, saying I was concerned about what a smaller population could mean for the market.

He made a great point: immigration will offset that decline.

Fewer people being born, but potentially more people moving in.

Has anyone else thought about this when looking ahead at the housing market?

Population trends do affect housing, but they are a lagging indicator. That is, the decline is only realized after the population shifts enough to matter for that market over quite a long time period. 

Detroit had a population of 1,800,000 people in the 1950s and was the most valuable city in the USA. I don't believe anybody makes that claim about Detroit today. 

There are more vacant houses there than fleas on a camel.

The irony of this post is off the charts.

Detroit is actually doing very well today. People are just stuck in their lagging narratives to realize it. 

Ask me how I know.

It isn't Detroit that is doing well, it's the suburbs. And it is by no means what it was in the 1950's. So, by your reasoning, if you buy today and wait long enough, you will be fine. Go for it.

Tell us, how many vacant houses in the city of Detroit? How many of those actually are tear downs?

they dont tear them down the kids burn them down on witching night.. google it Ken .. I know you know alot about most things but you may not be aware of witching night in Detroit.

Post: Will Population Decline Affect Housing?

Jay Hinrichs
#1 All Forums Contributor
Posted
  • Lender
  • Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
  • Posts 43,284
  • Votes 63,930
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Paul Azad:

SUPPLY 

"About 2.6 million Baby Boomers die each year, but that number is expected to increase to nearly 4 million by 2037." And a total of about 3.3 million Americans in total die each year. Likely most are over 40 and more likely to be homeowners than younger people percentage wise. Boomers are largest demographic co-hort in US history. Also a buddy of mine lives in a mythical city called Austin, where he swears while sober, said he saw guys 3-D printing houses, well foundation/walls etc. I have not looked into this but, if process ramps up, could cut construction costs, time to market and massively increase supply, too. 

DEMAND

America is decreasing it's previously Laissez-faire approach to immigration.  

So population decline either with Celestial deportation or with a more southerly route may not be good long term for housing market?


3-D printing for homes has LOOOOng been around and being fiddled with. Literally decades now. Have you seen any huge impact from 3-D home printing yet? No. It's an interesting idea that still hasn't landed any significant changes. 

SW is about the only place we can do it so that's where all the R&D is located by the daisy-chain of those trying to evolve the tech to something of viability. 

For now it's still a novelty more than anything. 

The recent leaps in pre-fab builds is the spear head of things. BOXABL is a standout leader in this segment. That is where your most likely to see any significant disruptions come from for any radical shift in how housing is built. 


been following boxabl  but I have yet to see them in the wild.. they are located in Vegas ( factory) and its a very limited product mainly an ADU from what I see.