All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

3-D printing for homes has LOOOOng been around and being fiddled with. Literally decades now. Have you seen any huge impact from 3-D home printing yet? No. It's an interesting idea that still hasn't landed any significant changes. 

SW is about the only place we can do it so that's where all the R&D is located by the daisy-chain of those trying to evolve the tech to something of viability. 

For now it's still a novelty more than anything. 

The recent leaps in pre-fab builds is the spear head of things. BOXABL is a standout leader in this segment. That is where your most likely to see any significant disruptions come from for any radical shift in how housing is built. 

SUPPLY 

"About 2.6 million Baby Boomers die each year, but that number is expected to increase to nearly 4 million by 2037." And a total of about 3.3 million Americans in total die each year. Likely most are over 40 and more likely to be homeowners than younger people percentage wise. Boomers are largest demographic co-hort in US history. Also a buddy of mine lives in a mythical city called Austin, where he swears while sober, said he saw guys 3-D printing houses, well foundation/walls etc. I have not looked into this but, if process ramps up, could cut construction costs, time to market and massively increase supply, too. 

DEMAND

America is decreasing it's previously Laissez-faire approach to immigration.  

So population decline either with Celestial deportation or with a more southerly route may not be good long term for housing market?

Hello @Devin James,

The US will likely not face population decline in the next decades due to immigration and longer life spans, even if birth rates decline.

However, national averages have limited relevance to individual cities. Cleveland, Ohio, offers a stark example of population decline. From its peak of over 914,000 residents in 1950, the city's population fell to 750,000 by 1970 and plummeted to about 372,000 by 2020—a 50% decrease since 1970. This dramatic decline stemmed not from birth rates but from issues with city government, crime, and cost of living.

During the same period, the population of the Las Vegas metro area has grown dramatically since 1970. In 1970, the population was approximately 273,000. By 2020, it had surged to over 2.3 million, representing an increase of more than 740% over the same period. This also had little to do with national birth rates.

As investors, we should focus on city-level performance, not national averages. Focus on cities with both significant, sustained population growth and consistent appreciation of existing properties. These two factors serve as strong indicators of a city's long-term economic outlook.

China, Japan & Italy have this problem right now.

China is trying to ignore/hide it because their short-sighted 1 child/family policy caused it. They've now ended that policy and are now offering incentives to have more children.

In Italy & Japan you can buy houses cheap in abandoned villages. Japan has the fastest aging population in the world, with one of the lowest birthrates. They're the world's "canary in a coal mine".

Climate change will be racing with population declines to determine which will have a bigger effect sooner!

Low water supplies & fires out west, increasing hurricanes in the southeast and shorter winters in the north may drive population growth back to the Midwest.

An interesting concept for larger projects. 

 An individual investor uses their SDIRA and directs the funds into an investment.  I've used mine as a private money lender and all the interest goes directly into my SDIRA allowing it to grow tax free.  Other colleagues use the funds to purchase an investment property and all mortgage payments etc come from SDIRA and all rental payments go right back into the SDIRA.  The idea is to have this property grow tax free, putting cash flow into SDIRA and having a property grow in equity.  Let's say you sell the property in 10 year or 18 years (whatever timeframe) - it goes right back into your SDIRA.  This is a retirement plan.  Depending on how much is in an individual's SDIRA would determine if they could purchase out right or put 20-25% down and have enough left over to pay mortgage etc from SDIRA. May be able to pay mortgage/upkeep out of pocket. However, any proceeds from the property purchased from SDIRA have to go right back in the SDIRA in order for it not to be taxed. 

This is my perspective as an engineer/survey consultant...

The rights associated with a prescriptive easement exist only in 'concept' and statue. It isn't until one of two things happen that they're obvious and apparent. First option is you obtain a signed document from the adjacent owner acknowledging the condition and essentially granting you the easement...obtaining the easement negates the need for prescription since it is now 'of record'. Or you file a lawsuit to perfect those rights via the court, and then a judge considers the statutory requirements and awards you access via a judgement. 

My exposure to PE has been on projects being developed. One was a neighbor making the claim, which they went too far by saying they owned the property...you can't deprive someone of the property itself...but they could likely have won on the PE claim. Instead my client negotiated something else (a license agreement I think). 

The other two projects had old PE listed in title. One appeared to have been voluntarily entered into, and the document discussed the condition and timing etc and how as of the execution there was now an easement superseding any historical claims. The other was a recorded judgement indicating the extent of the PE claim and the obligations for each party. Both were from 50+ years ago, if I remember correctly the late 40's and the mid 60's.

I'm in western washington, seattle/tacoma. we are getting a lot more "price improvements" here and less waived contingencies.

@Taylor Kendrick

Join because you want to, like the facilities, and you want to build a social network. I am a member of a few clubs because I like to golf and meet new people with common interests in real estate. I have met great people there. Yes, you will meet business contacts because you have shared interests in the country club life. If you are curious about them, genuine, and how you can add value to the relationship, it's a net positive. There is no math equation for the ROI. I would not join a club that you need to take out a second mortgage to join just because you think it will pay off.