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All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs
Jay Hinrichs has started 325 posts and replied 41531 times.
Post: Lender Points too high?

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Erik Estrada:
Quote from @Josiah Guyer:
Hey all, I have not closed a conventional mortgage for investment purposes before. I currently have a deal under contract and am working with a lender. I used this lender before for my personal residence and was pleased with them but currently they are wanting to charge me 7K in fees on top of closing costs. I have a duplex under contract for 215K, 25% down (54k), closing is 7K, and lender points and fees are 7k for a total of $68,000. Interest rate is around 7.125%.
Do these fees seem unusually high or am I just out of touch with current lending costs? Any thoughts appreciated.
Thanks
Do you have a Loan Estimate to share and see what these fees are? $68,000 in fees for $161,250 Loan Amount is insanely high. I don't even think you would pass compliance on something like that.
I think he is saying the fees are 7k which to me would be fine.. maybe i am not understanding it correctly.
Post: What We Are Seeing In The Non Performing Loan Space

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Patrick Roberts:
@Chris Seveney I dont see a ton of note inventory like you do, but what I'm seeing on the origination side is correlated with your observations on the NPL DSCRs. I'm seeing a lot of deals that just dont pencil, lots of imagination and misplaced optimism on rents and expenses, and a general lack of liquidity.
On a daily basis, I'm talking with investors who are wanting loans that stretch deals to the absolute max of solvency while having little to no cash or liquidity. Deals are being held together by shoestrings where if anything goes wrong, the investor is going to be in a bind. I'm talking no reserves whatsoever while borrowing at absolute max leverage, all while not having the personal income to absorb any extended vacancies or drop in rents. Its like everyone is in such a hurry that theyre stacking risk on risk in a "make it or bust" race to have X doors or retire at 28 or whatever.
Same goes for hard money and flips - I'm seeing situations where investors are getting into deals via hard money that theyre only exit path is selling the property and where margins are unreasonably tight. There's no margin of safety and little borrower skin. A lot of investors have been looking for bridge loans and extensions to buy them time because theyve termed out on their HML but cant refi and cant sell unless at a loss.
A trend Ive noticed in the past two months is that appraisals are getting more conservative compared to the past year or two. Appreciation has slowed dramatically and properties under-appraising is becoming more common.
My guess is that we'll see two things happen in the next year or so: 1) DSCR loans are going to get stricter with experience requirements, and 2) DSCR loans are going to require higher DSCR ratios. Generally, LTVs are pretty healthy because everyone has a ton of equity, and FICOs have been really solid for the past few years (I suspect this may be artificially inflated by the covid response, though).
The risk-stacking combo I see most currently is inexperienced investor + little/no cash + DSCR ratio of 1.01x + not great personal financial situation (low income/high personal DTI). These borrowers are one eviction or layoff away from missing several loan payments and getting trapped.
The risk-stacking combo I see most currently is inexperienced investor +
little/no cash + DSCR ratio of 1.01x + not great personal financial
situation (low income/high personal DTI). These borrowers are one
eviction or layoff away from missing several loan payments and getting
trapped.
sounds like your describing the average tenant !!
Post: Need advice on raising 20M to fund horizontal utilities on 237ac entitled plot

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Garry Miller:
Quote from @Mike Grudzien:
Garry,
I'm surprised that working at this level of real estate development and deal size that you and your partners don't have at least a dozen lenders in your back pocket that deal at that level and like your work....
I'm interested in seeing the answers here.
Great question - we've had a lot of success with these not quite dozen, but 7 lenders and they're all in on their respective deals to finance the Vertical construction, secured by the housing assets yet to be built. This request is for a short term, construction/bridge loan so we can get through the infrastructure phase only. More transparently - it gets us out of the land bank holding phase now. Available cash is servicing the debt, with construction partners on the sideline waiting to be put to work. Thanks for the clarifying questions - I hope this opens up some more perspectives about how to solve for this opportunity!
2. Texas is somewhat unique in that a bond can be issued which will cover some of the cost of the infrastructure development. The bond will be paid by an improvement district tax paid for by the property owners.Their are two underwriters who handle these type of bonds. However, qualification is quite difficult because the underwriters are selling these bonds to their longtime clients and excessive defaults will kill their business. The first thing the underwriters consider is the financial position of the developer. Unless that’s solid they will go no further. Secondly they require the developer to place 25% of the bond issue amount in escrow, so for a $20 million bond issue that’s $5 million. Then if the total does not cover full infrastructure development they require a plan that covers the additional amount required.
The particular development I’m involved in spent about $400,000 on soft costs to be able to provide the necessary information to the underwriter - this was in addition to all other soft costs usually incurred in development.
Great discussion.. Bond financing while it works in my experience is time consuming and like you said expensive.. I did 4 of them in CA back in the day.. 1915 act and Mello roos. these were late 80s and even back then the Mello Roos one I did in Nevada county Ca the soft cost were in excess of 250k U had to have very expensive appraisal you had to pay bond council and then you had the investment bankers who sold the bonds. The one I did in Nevada county was the first one they ever did in that county.. But today Mello Roos is very widly used in CA. and Frankly one of the only ways developers can get these deals done as the cash needs for infrastructure and offsites is just so high they need this added leverage.
Oregon has Bond issues but only the cities or counties can use them private developers cannot expect for rare instances.. This makes development in our area very tough for guys like me that are not publicly traded or a large regional developer.. so the public companies and the large regional have kicked all us little guys to the curb basically. I can get horizontal for my projects but my commercial bank requires the dirt to be paid for and these are multi decade connections along with substantial deposit relationships..
I think Garry might want to consider phasing this into as small of chunks as possible trying to land one huge loan is pretty tough.
Post: What We Are Seeing In The Non Performing Loan Space

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Don Konipol:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Over the past few months, we've seen a noticeable uptick in non-performing loans hitting the market—particularly in the investor space.
DSCR and fix-and-flip loans are making up the bulk of this volume. We estimate nearly $200M/month of non-performing product is circulating across the platforms and networks we monitor. These are typically investor loans that were originated in the last 2–3 years and are now showing cracks, largely due to overleveraging, slowed market velocity, or project mismanagement.
On the owner-occupied side, we’re starting to see more inventory—but with a big caveat: many of these loans were originated during the COVID years at 3–4% interest rates. These borrowers aren’t always far enough behind to justify a meaningful discount, and the low rates can present a risk profile that doesn’t pencil out especially assuming they will file BK which many have done.
What are you seeing out there?
Are you noticing more non-performers hitting your desk? And with today’s economic backdrop—high consumer debt, inflationary pressures, and tighter credit—do you expect volume to keep climbing?
Would love to hear others’ perspectives.
I can only speak of the commercial mortgage market
In the last year two simultaneous issues
1- interest rates for good borrowers/property in the commercial space went from 4-5% to 7-9%.
This of course meant all those deals purchased at 5-6 cap would be running negative cash flow after debt service at same pricing. So, those with fixed rate mortgages can only sell; at loss; those with variable rate have negative cash flow.
2- qualification for refinance much more stringent - some investors “trapped” in a negative cash flowing property worth 20% + less than they paid.
We’ve seen a large increase in financing requests especially from borrower’s who 2 years ago would have qualified for institutional - bank type financing.
Since there deals don’t pan out as refis we have approached current lenders with proposal for our purchasing their note at a discount. While most lenders in this position are willing to discount, we’re finding they’re not willing to discount enough to provide the return we require as adjusted for the risk and current property values. Many of these lenders are clinging to appraisals done 2-3 years ago utilizing 4.5 - 5.5 cap rates. Many of these incorrectly classified the property as better than it was so the appraisal was inflated value to begin with and with the increase in cap is even more out of wack.
The real estate “market” is not “smooth” with an instantaneous adjustment to new information. People tend to “hang on” as long as they can either in denial as to changes in market value of hoping for the market to “comeback” and bail them out. Same with lenders.
Chris, when I started buying notes back in 1980, I was paying something like 50 -55% of unpaid principal for PERFORMING notes, LOL. Back the , with interest rates reaching a peak of 18%, sellers were owner financing at 9% to make the deal work. After a couple years of they decided they needed cash, they were shocked to learn that their note was worth little more than half the value on the market. But the better investment for the note buyer was defaulted notes - sometimes the property obtained in foreclosure was worth double to triple the note purchase price ! To discourage outside bidding, trustee sales were held in very remote locations; if anyone showed up to bid the sale was “delayed”. This of course led to legislation aimed at curbing these abuses.
Oh man that brings back courthouse steps memories. on the west coast Trustee companies ( foreclosure mills) they would stick to courthouse.. but when a private attorney was doing it you had to read the notice well they could have a venue that is in the door way of some obscure place at a weird hour.. then like you said if you showed up all of a sudden it was postponed. although I have to say I snagged a few at the alternate locations. In my little Money renting business we have funded some folks ( quite a few ) that the take out was DSCR.. And frankly some of what I am seeing in that space reminds me of 07 sub prime lending.. you know income based only no real credit or tax return etc etc.. I can think of two off my borrowers from 3 or for years ago that took me out with DSCR and I have become aware that they are losing their entire portfolio's.. AS we know when you do those loans everything is automatically cross collateralize.. And what I see is mis management or not being in market and not really understanding how PMs' work or that you cannot eat off of rents with a highly leveraged portfolio.. all income MUST be put back into the property plus usually have to contribute capital to keep your portfolio healthy. From what I see on a small slice I think the DSCR guys and some of the less experienced investors who are taking down those loans are going to see major headwinds and defaults.
Post: Buying Land & Building

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Kwanza P.:
Anyone have experience or advice for buying land ? Especially land where you’re most likely to be on a septic system (on purpose because you love nature and that’s just how it is).
Any tips, resources, links, on buying land ? Then building a house on that land?
Kwanza
If you are buying land for septic, you will want to do proper due diligence to make sure you have water available and also the property can support a septic system and a size that matches the size of the home. Even if it can, depending on soil conditions it could be a traditional system or an alternative system which can cost 5x more. Always ask the seller if they have done any perc test on the property.
anyone buying land with private utilities is doomed. no institutional level interest. I tore down 3 houses for a builder that were less than 10 years old and they used to do "build on your lot" and tore all 3 houses down it was on a ground lease.
I would not say they are doomed at all. Most who build are not building for institutional buyers as they make up 1-2% of all home purchasess. I have built and/or developed as part of a team more homes than I can count on septic systems - especially whenI was living in Massachusetts as many of the communities do not have public sewer or water. For example two of the W towns (Wayland and Weston) in Massachusetts are on private services. Check out their home prices.
i am sure @Jay Hinrichs has done a good amount of development on private utilities as well
Chris absolutly as an old land guy it was rare to have public utls at least in rural to semi rural settings. Also on land leases a lot of what I fund in baltimore ( those row houses) they sit on leased land.. Just like good portions of Hawaii.
Jay, I know you aren't funding deals with private utilities? If I brought you a deal and said it had private utilities you'd reject that in one minute.
I dont think so 1/4 of my business is funding land flippers and other than maybe public water system ( many times private HOA owned) its all well and septic.. We just closed on one I funded in Loudan county VA . Toll Brothers bought it.. for many many millions.. and this was all well and septic. Each lot has its own well and of course septic system.. The other two I have going in the same area ( one sold to Lennar and the other to Toll) are in city proper with full city utls. Once Toll goes public with their marketing I will post it on success stories here on BP for folks to check out.. If timing was different I would have loved to build that project out personally its 35 lots all estate sized with a big lake etc etc. The type of site we just drool over .. Toll will knock it out of the park with that one.
Any tips for selling land in Northern Virginia? I have 2.5 acres in Middletown, right off 66.
Nope .. dont know Virginia that well to know where 2.5 acres off of 66 in Middletown is . Consult local RE broker who sells land .. thats what I do. or my cleints do everythign we fund gets listed on MLS for resale.
Post: Buying Land & Building

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Kwanza P.:
Anyone have experience or advice for buying land ? Especially land where you’re most likely to be on a septic system (on purpose because you love nature and that’s just how it is).
Any tips, resources, links, on buying land ? Then building a house on that land?
Kwanza
If you are buying land for septic, you will want to do proper due diligence to make sure you have water available and also the property can support a septic system and a size that matches the size of the home. Even if it can, depending on soil conditions it could be a traditional system or an alternative system which can cost 5x more. Always ask the seller if they have done any perc test on the property.
anyone buying land with private utilities is doomed. no institutional level interest. I tore down 3 houses for a builder that were less than 10 years old and they used to do "build on your lot" and tore all 3 houses down it was on a ground lease.
I would not say they are doomed at all. Most who build are not building for institutional buyers as they make up 1-2% of all home purchasess. I have built and/or developed as part of a team more homes than I can count on septic systems - especially whenI was living in Massachusetts as many of the communities do not have public sewer or water. For example two of the W towns (Wayland and Weston) in Massachusetts are on private services. Check out their home prices.
i am sure @Jay Hinrichs has done a good amount of development on private utilities as well
Chris absolutly as an old land guy it was rare to have public utls at least in rural to semi rural settings. Also on land leases a lot of what I fund in baltimore ( those row houses) they sit on leased land.. Just like good portions of Hawaii.
Jay, I know you aren't funding deals with private utilities? If I brought you a deal and said it had private utilities you'd reject that in one minute.
I dont think so 1/4 of my business is funding land flippers and other than maybe public water system ( many times private HOA owned) its all well and septic.. We just closed on one I funded in Loudan county VA . Toll Brothers bought it.. for many many millions.. and this was all well and septic. Each lot has its own well and of course septic system.. The other two I have going in the same area ( one sold to Lennar and the other to Toll) are in city proper with full city utls. Once Toll goes public with their marketing I will post it on success stories here on BP for folks to check out.. If timing was different I would have loved to build that project out personally its 35 lots all estate sized with a big lake etc etc. The type of site we just drool over .. Toll will knock it out of the park with that one.
Post: Buying Land & Building

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Kwanza P.:
Anyone have experience or advice for buying land ? Especially land where you’re most likely to be on a septic system (on purpose because you love nature and that’s just how it is).
Any tips, resources, links, on buying land ? Then building a house on that land?
Kwanza
If you are buying land for septic, you will want to do proper due diligence to make sure you have water available and also the property can support a septic system and a size that matches the size of the home. Even if it can, depending on soil conditions it could be a traditional system or an alternative system which can cost 5x more. Always ask the seller if they have done any perc test on the property.
anyone buying land with private utilities is doomed. no institutional level interest. I tore down 3 houses for a builder that were less than 10 years old and they used to do "build on your lot" and tore all 3 houses down it was on a ground lease.
I would not say they are doomed at all. Most who build are not building for institutional buyers as they make up 1-2% of all home purchasess. I have built and/or developed as part of a team more homes than I can count on septic systems - especially whenI was living in Massachusetts as many of the communities do not have public sewer or water. For example two of the W towns (Wayland and Weston) in Massachusetts are on private services. Check out their home prices.
i am sure @Jay Hinrichs has done a good amount of development on private utilities as well
Chris absolutly as an old land guy it was rare to have public utls at least in rural to semi rural settings. Also on land leases a lot of what I fund in baltimore ( those row houses) they sit on leased land.. Just like good portions of Hawaii.
Post: New Construction for Investors (Columbus)

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Marc Rice:
Quote from @Sachin Amin:
Hello BP community - any one lately come across new construction properties for investors in Columbus OH, most of these builders in Columbus refrain from selling it to investors and only entertain first time home buyers or if you plan to make it as primary home to live in. (Rockford, MI, Pulte, Ryan homes) - any one know of builders who are investor friendly in Columbus?
sachin
I work directly with a Dr. Horton rep. We discussed the best x3 build to rent products they sell now. They offer rates in the 5% too for 25% down.
builders just raise the price to offer buy downs.. keeps their comps up and sales going ..
Post: Detroit Tarrifs is now the time for a rebirth and new look @ this market

- Lender
- Lake Oswego OR Summerlin, NV
- Posts 43,292
- Votes 63,935
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
We don't have the labor to make more things in the US.
We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?
And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.
I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.
The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor. Video.
I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.
Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

Why should we care about Apples phones etc. If they aren't going to bring opportunity to Americans to buy a house, provide for a family then they are not a priority, if they go broke "thems the breaks". They can take all the money they are spending sending missiles and weapons all across the world and get the folks in Detroit up to speed for those good jobs Apple has. Americans don't need more technology, we need some good jobs that can create strong communities, towns, neighborhoods etc. And if your business doesn't provide that then your business is not a priority. Am I missing something?
Yes, I think you missed my point. It's not about Apple. The issue is: we have more open jobs than people looking for jobs. In other words: we don't need more jobs. And if we create more jobs, who is going to take them?
And a large portion of the people unemployed today have a qualification problem. Simple manual labor is not a thing anymore. You need automation engineers who can troubleshoot a FANUC 6-axis robot - and not a grunt to do heavy manual labor.
And you are not going to train a 40 year old unskilled laborer to become an engineer. Heck, who would even make the investment to pay for college with only 20 working years left to retirement?
Good jobs to create strong communities" sounds really great, we all want that, I am all for it. But the definition of what a good job looks like has changed. Give it another 3 or 5 years. Machines will be picking your strawberries, because they will do it cheaper, better and also at night.
We can recreate an economy like it was in the 80s with "Good jobs for hard working Americans". Tune back the technology. But the world will move on and the ones who say America is a dying empire will have been right.
I didn't know shoes can be woke, good thing I don't have any Nike lol. I agree that Wallstreet and turbo-capitalism took the wealth from the middle class, but the real question is weather it is feasible for us to on-shore production in a reasonable time, AND get wages up AND keep prices from shooting up so affordability gets better AND redistribute income back to the middle class.
It took as all of the 80s, 90s and 00s to offshore our manufacturing. Moving factories and building supply chains takes decades. Raising a workforce with the right qualifications takes a generation. And the sweatshop China you describe has been rapidly vanishing and is being replaced with hyper modern fully automated facilities.
And you need a very qualified workforce to run them: 1.5 million engineers graduate every year in China, I believe we are just over 100,000
We are asking if we could re-open some of the mothballed factories that was designed to manually assemble a Ford Granada. Meanwhile, BYD is just finishing a car manufacturing plant the size of San Francisco - about 50 square miles large - that will produce a million cars per year. Highly automated factory, not a sweatshop.
And the cars are amazing! I usually drive German SUVs, but every Chinese car I have driven in the last 2 years makes me realize that they are getting ahead in every aspect. For half the price
So, yeah - something has to change. We can't keep importing everything and the only thing we ship the other way is dollar bills. We do this long enough they have all the dollars and we have all the stuff. Then what?
First I think everyone needs to wrap there head around accepting the fundamental fact that the path USA was on only ends 1 way; INSOLVENCY.
That is just a fact. And oddly enough, as much as people burry there head in the sand to it, countless experts have been sounding the alarms on this for literally years.
For years there has been a similar denial culture in South Africa. Friends and family would ask me and wife when back visiting of why don't we move back, why are we "suffering" in USA. And in many ways we were suffering in USA vs the lifestyle we could readily have in South Africa.
But we saw the writing on the wall, the future was certain, we knew what was coming, the reaping of certain actions.
Now, nobody has been able to swim on Durban beach for over a year because of the human waste, YES human feces river literally streaming out 24-7 and nothing being done to the infrastructure.
Load shedding...... Imagine 4-7hrs of electricity a day, or less. Especially when hot.
This is the future of USA if something DRASTIC is not done. The crisis in South Africa didn't happen over a few years, it was decades in the making. Decades of neglect, ignorance, can kicking, avoidance, corruption, fraud and sticking heads in the sand. Until finally the issues rupture so big it's all but impossible to deny the stench, very literally.
I don't think anyone sane is saying it will be easy in USA, but it's NECESSARY.
How fast can it be? I'd argue speed comes from level of necessity. When the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor the USA was half foot into the war, or so it thought it was, and realized it was sooooo far under equipped or ready that it effectively was wholly unequipped or prepared. And the USA panicked BUT panicked with purpose.
In lightning speed, no not decades, the USA built an industrial TITAN of manufacturing that out produced the entire axis forces to a scale of multiplication factors.
It CAN be done. It HAS been done before.
Labor, both skilled and unskilled CAN be trained, in scale, and at lightning speed. It has been done before.
Necessity is the Mother of invention, but also the Father of motivation.
CAN the USA? Well of course it can, it already has, and there was no playbook on how-to back then so absolutely no excuses this time around for "can we".
The question, the question of all questions is; WILL WE.......
The USA culture is still deeply entrenched in denialism. In it's own sense of grandiosity to even conceive it is anything less than the center of the universe and no nation can possibly compete more or less eclipse it. Despite all the facts and reality to the contrary. Still trying to coast on the steam of a generation lost to time.
I do not think those under 45 have any concept of what's at stake.
It's a question of will-power not infrastructure. USA has proven this before. If and when the will-power exists, nothing can't be done. Mountains will be moved, fleet's built, a sleeping giant will awaken.....
Couple thoughts: if you read Ray Dalio you start to get a sense where the US was headed and that's not good. You can't maintain a 1.5T trade deficit forever, we are basically exporting money and then borrow it back. That is a terminal trajectory.
I don't know what the solution should be, but I think that turning a consumption-based economy (70% of GDP) into a production-based economy is no small feat. If it is possible at all!
It took China 30 years to rise, out of brutal necessity, and with massive economic help from the US. We WANTED them to make cheap stuff for us and they were beyond willing to do that. The US is a gigantic consumer and we kept blowing oxygen into that fire for decades and made it the world largest factory. If there would not have been a continuous stream of money from the US (and others) it would not have happened.
Who in the world would want buy US products (at scale) and why?
We would have to produce either better or cheaper.
The car industry makes it painfully clear that we are neither! Heck, it pains me to say, but even the German carmakers have lost that race to the Chinese in the last years on both accounts.
I love the idea of the US coming together for a massive cause and rally, we have to acknowledge that the leap that is required to do so is geometrically larger compared to WW2 efforts.
Yes, you can train a farmboy to weld a crude Normandy-style landing boat in a couple weeks. You can't train an Amazon worker or truck driver to become a robotics engineer, not in a couple years, probably ever.
Here is a list of open jobs from the Tesla website to give you a sense:
Sr. Industrial Engineer, Megapack
Maintenance Planner & Procurement Specialist, Lithium Refinery
5 Axis CNC Machinist, Die Shop
Metallurgical Engineer, Die Shop
Production Planner, Die Shop
Sr. Quality Engineer, Stationary Battery Enclosure, Megapack
Staff Quality Engineer, Megapack
Staff Process Engineer, General Assembly, Megapack
Associate Engineering Manager, Production Control, Megapack
Sr. Process Engineer, Production Control, Megapack
Project Engineer, New Product Introduction, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Powder Coat, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Module & Power Electronics, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Body in White, Megafactory
I love Ray Dalio, he has an amazing talent for communicating wildly intricate, complex things in a way that seems almost simplistic, yet retains all nuances of the details.
FYI, I also graduated in mid 90's. Yes people, I am a Grandpa, several times over. I am very blessed to have blue-zone genes.
The notion that USA was going to be a consumer economy, and that it would some how lead to prosperity was one of, if not THE, greatest con's ever pulled off.
I recall when the entire lunacy of it was announced and championed. It was immediately apparent to me of "how will the nation make $" and that was not an ok opinion to have on it. It felt very Roman-esk, the masses wanted to just enjoy there bread & games....
The concept of an ip economy has well been proven as a spruce goose.
ip has always been, and always will be, the most vulnerable of assets. Easily stolen through a variety of mechanisms. As China has well proven and championed.
I don't blame the Chinese, I don't, if anything I envy them.
I believe the only shot USA and for that matter, the western nations have as a whole, have is a methodical concerted effort and actions to change the social dynamics. The mindsets must shift. Without that, it will all fail.
Americans have to exterminate their social narcissism.
The prevailing word of language must become "WE" replacing me, I, my......
My fear is the history.
Americans have a deep history for action after the fact. Europe burned and burned and burned and only after punched straight in the face at Pearl and a miracle staving off total obliteration in the Pacific did USA shift.
Is that what will be required again? A catastrophe verging on total absolute calamity to bring Americans together as a unified, roll up the sleeve, do what we gotta do "UNUM".
In 1939 the US military was less that than Portugal's..... Under 190k.
In 1940, leading up to Pearl, they jokingly thought they were "prepared" at almost 500k.
Within 12 months of Pearl, over 3 million strong. 24 months later and roughly 8 million.......
In less than 48 months the USA built, from dirt, the biggest most powerful fighting force the world had ever seen.
That includes clothing, housing, feeding, training millions upon millions upon milliions.
Think; how'd they shazam up that many boot's?
How'd they ever find that many dentist's?
How in the heck did they manage to move enough food and water every day for millions upon millions?
The logistics are absolutely mind boggling. And it was achieved in a measurement of weeks and months, not years and decades.
Everything, EVERYTHING had to be built, created to facilitate it all. There was not enough toilet paper in all the nation for those soldiers butt's. They had to grow manufacturing capacity for literally everything at a rate not only never done in the USA, but never done in human history.
I don't know how we can do it again, but WE CAN, we did, we did it because we HAD TO. Failure was not an option.
That mindset lead the way of everything. There was no place for lamenting how hard whatever would be, or how this or that wasn't readily available. A generation of problem solvers, because that was the messaging, that was the requirement expected of everyone, how can you help, what can you solve, what can you do for the greater whole.
"We do these things not because they are easy....."
If that spirit is gone and dead...... Than so is the USA.....
".. but because they are hard!!" - I don't see much of that spirit anymore. Also, not a shining city on the hill anymore. I totally agree with you on what this country can do, the better story than WW2 is probably the rise of NASA.
It used to be a small operation located in Hampton, Virginia with a handful of engineers launching model air planes from the roof top to better understand airfoils. Not that much later the director of NASA listened to Kennedy's speech on a flight to DC and that's how he found out that we are going to the moon by the end of the decade.
James Webb got handed a blank checkbook, they hired 17,000 engineers in a matter of months while they were still figuring out where to actually put them - because the necessary office buildings had to be constructed, actually they had not bought the land yet and were still debating where in the country it should be.. totally insane story!!
I have a deep love for who America was back then, how presidents used to be and how the world used to look up to the US as a role model to stand for what's right and just. I love the presidential debate between Kennedy and Nixon, while they disagreed completely on how to do it, they totally agreed on the objective and debated with a lot of respect for each other.
Today I woke up to the news that the president of the United States proclaims that "world leaders are lining up to kiss his ***".
ya Trumps bedside manner is more like a longshoremen than a politician.. :)
Post: RAD Diversified SCAM ALERT!!!

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Quote from @Kris Stack:
My point is simple—there’s no need for Stuart to publicly criticize those who invested. Fear isn’t what drives me, and it won’t hold me back. I suspect I’m not alone in that.
@Stuart Udis keep in mind ( I see your new at posting) one of the benefits to the community is discussing these investments in detail good or bad.. This will protect the next investor or at least get them thinking about doing deeper due diligence etc.. So for me I appreciate you sharing your details on this investment.. I started off on the thread thinking maybe the investors were just over reacting but as its played out sounds like a company that made some major mistakes