All Forum Posts by: Jay Hinrichs

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We don't have the labor to make more things in the US. 

We still have about 7.4 million open jobs and vs 7 million unemployed. You can't drive unemployment to zero. Anything under 5% is considered full employment. And we are at 4.1%. So while it sounds great to "bring jobs back" - who is going to do them?

And we also have a qualification problem. A modern auto factory does not require much unskilled labor. Material is moved by automated forklifts, and assembly is either done or assisted by robots to meet TQM standards. Much of what you need are engineers and highly skilled workers. We are already short on both.

I doubt that most of the 40% unemployed men of the inner city of Detroit are a good fit for a modern day manufacturing plant.

The Apple CEO Tim Cook said famously: people think we manufacture in China because labor is cheap. The real reason is they have a vast pool of HIGHLY qualified skilled labor.  Video.

I have spent almost 20 years working for a global manufacturer. For any machine that was produced in our US factory and the components needed to assemble the decision was to either fully automate the process to 24/7 production here in the US - or offshore to MX or CHN, the difference being the response time to change orders (6 months vs 6 weeks) due to geographic distance. MX kept us more flexible.

Here is a picture of the BMW plant in Spartenburg, SC and if you want to see the list of jobs they have it's here https://www.bmwgroup.jobs/us/en/location/location-spartanbur...

Why should we care about Apples phones etc.  If they aren't going to bring opportunity to Americans to buy a house, provide for a family then they are not a priority, if they go broke "thems the breaks".  They can take all the money they are spending sending missiles and weapons all across the world and get the folks in Detroit up to speed for those good jobs Apple has.  Americans don't need more technology, we need some good jobs that can create strong communities, towns, neighborhoods etc.  And if your business doesn't provide that then your business is not a priority.  Am I missing something?

Yes, I think you missed my point. It's not about Apple. The issue is: we have more open jobs than people looking for jobs. In other words: we don't need more jobs. And if we create more jobs, who is going to take them?

And a large portion of the people unemployed today have a qualification problem. Simple manual labor is not a thing anymore. You need automation engineers who can troubleshoot a FANUC 6-axis robot - and not a grunt to do heavy manual labor.

And you are not going to train a 40 year old unskilled laborer to become an engineer. Heck, who would even make the investment to pay for college with only 20 working years left to retirement?

Good jobs to create strong communities" sounds really great, we all want that, I am all for it. But the definition of what a good job looks like has changed. Give it another 3 or 5 years. Machines will be picking your strawberries, because they will do it cheaper, better and also at night.

We can recreate an economy like it was in the 80s with "Good jobs for hard working Americans". Tune back the technology. But the world will move on and the ones who say America is a dying empire will have been right.

People today have a qualification problem because the jobs have been shipped over to asia, and industries like timber has been crushed by regulation with the help of BlackRock etc so they can use cheaper labor and make more money.  Nike, Apple etc use these people in asia like slaves the governments are totally corrupt with no labor or environmental protection, impossible for us to compete with that.  The outsourcing of the nations wealth Wall Street and the corporate outsourcers took a huge cut off the top and sent it overseas.  Thats how I view it and that is why Trump was elected I believe.  If Apple can't make money building their technology or Nike can't build their dumb woke shoes here and make money I'm good with that let them go broke.  It took along time to get our population as fat and ignorant as they are today (God bless them, LOL) there could be alot of pain and time whipping our country back into shape.

I didn't know shoes can be woke, good thing I don't have any Nike lol. I agree that Wallstreet and turbo-capitalism took the wealth from the middle class, but the real question is weather it is feasible for us to on-shore production in a reasonable time, AND get wages up AND keep prices from shooting up so affordability gets better AND redistribute income back to the middle class.

It took as all of the 80s, 90s and 00s to offshore our manufacturing. Moving factories and building supply chains takes decades. Raising a workforce with the right qualifications takes a generation. And the sweatshop China you describe has been rapidly vanishing and is being replaced with hyper modern fully automated facilities. 

And you need a very qualified workforce to run them: 1.5 million engineers graduate every year in China, I believe we are just over 100,000

We are asking if we could re-open some of the mothballed factories that was designed to manually assemble a Ford Granada. Meanwhile, BYD is just finishing a car manufacturing plant the size of San Francisco - about 50 square miles large - that will produce a million cars per year. Highly automated factory, not a sweatshop. 

And the cars are amazing! I usually drive German SUVs, but every Chinese car I have driven in the last 2 years makes me realize that they are getting ahead in every aspect. For half the price

So, yeah - something has to change. We can't keep importing everything and the only thing we ship the other way is dollar bills. We do this long enough they have all the dollars and we have all the stuff. Then what?

First I think everyone needs to wrap there head around accepting the fundamental fact that the path USA was on only ends 1 way; INSOLVENCY. 

That is just a fact. And oddly enough, as much as people burry there head in the sand to it, countless experts have been sounding the alarms on this for literally years.

For years there has been a similar denial culture in South Africa. Friends and family would ask me and wife when back visiting of why don't we move back, why are we "suffering" in USA. And in many ways we were suffering in USA vs the lifestyle we could readily have in South Africa. 

But we saw the writing on the wall, the future was certain, we knew what was coming, the reaping of certain actions. 

Now, nobody has been able to swim on Durban beach for over a year because of the human waste, YES human feces river literally streaming out 24-7 and nothing being done to the infrastructure. 

Load shedding...... Imagine 4-7hrs of electricity a day, or less. Especially when hot. 

This is the future of USA if something DRASTIC is not done. The crisis in South Africa didn't happen over a few years, it was decades in the making. Decades of neglect, ignorance, can kicking, avoidance, corruption, fraud and sticking heads in the sand. Until finally the issues rupture so big it's all but impossible to deny the stench, very literally.

I don't think anyone sane is saying it will be easy in USA, but it's NECESSARY. 

How fast can it be? I'd argue speed comes from level of necessity. When the Japanese hit Pearl Harbor the USA was half foot into the war, or so it thought it was, and realized it was sooooo far under equipped or ready that it effectively was wholly unequipped or prepared. And the USA panicked BUT panicked with purpose. 

In lightning speed, no not decades, the USA built an industrial TITAN of manufacturing that out produced the entire axis forces to a scale of multiplication factors. 

It CAN be done. It HAS been done before. 

Labor, both skilled and unskilled CAN be trained, in scale, and at lightning speed. It has been done before. 

Necessity is the Mother of invention, but also the Father of motivation. 

CAN the USA? Well of course it can, it already has, and there was no playbook on how-to back then so absolutely no excuses this time around for "can we". 

The question, the question of all questions is; WILL WE....... 

The USA culture is still deeply entrenched in denialism. In it's own sense of grandiosity to even conceive it is anything less than the center of the universe and no nation can possibly compete more or less eclipse it. Despite all the facts and reality to the contrary. Still trying to coast on the steam of a generation lost to time. 

I do not think those under 45 have any concept of what's at stake. 

It's a question of will-power not infrastructure. USA has proven this before. If and when the will-power exists, nothing can't be done. Mountains will be moved, fleet's built, a sleeping giant will awaken.....

A great speech writer has been lost on you James! I get the picture.. and I am 50 BTW

Couple thoughts: if you read Ray Dalio you start to get a sense where the US was headed and that's not good. You can't maintain a 1.5T trade deficit forever, we are basically exporting money and then borrow it back. That is a terminal trajectory.

I don't know what the solution should be, but I think that turning a consumption-based economy (70% of GDP) into a production-based economy is no small feat. If it is possible at all!

It took China 30 years to rise, out of brutal necessity, and with massive economic help from the US. We WANTED them to make cheap stuff for us and they were beyond willing to do that. The US is a gigantic consumer and we kept blowing oxygen into that fire for decades and made it the world largest factory. If there would not have been a continuous stream of money from the US (and others) it would not have happened.

Who in the world would want buy US products (at scale) and why?

We would have to produce either better or cheaper.

The car industry makes it painfully clear that we are neither! Heck, it pains me to say, but even the German carmakers have lost that race to the Chinese in the last years on both accounts.

I love the idea of the US coming together for a massive cause and rally, we have to acknowledge that the leap that is required to do so is geometrically larger compared to WW2 efforts. 

Yes, you can train a farmboy to weld a crude Normandy-style landing boat in a couple weeks. You can't train an Amazon worker or truck driver to become a robotics engineer, not in a couple years, probably ever.

Here is a list of open jobs from the Tesla website to give you a sense:

Sr. Industrial Engineer, Megapack
Maintenance Planner & Procurement Specialist, Lithium Refinery
5 Axis CNC Machinist, Die Shop
Metallurgical Engineer, Die Shop
Production Planner, Die Shop
Sr. Quality Engineer, Stationary Battery Enclosure, Megapack
Staff Quality Engineer, Megapack
Staff Process Engineer, General Assembly, Megapack
Associate Engineering Manager, Production Control, Megapack
Sr. Process Engineer, Production Control, Megapack
Project Engineer, New Product Introduction, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Powder Coat, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Module & Power Electronics, Megapack
Production Engineering Manager, Body in White, Megafactory

I love Ray Dalio, he has an amazing talent for communicating wildly intricate, complex things in a way that seems almost simplistic, yet retains all nuances of the details. 

FYI, I also graduated in mid 90's. Yes people, I am a Grandpa, several times over. I am very blessed to have blue-zone genes. 

The notion that USA was going to be a consumer economy, and that it would some how lead to prosperity was one of, if not THE, greatest con's ever pulled off. 

I recall when the entire lunacy of it was announced and championed. It was immediately apparent to me of "how will the nation make $" and that was not an ok opinion to have on it. It felt very Roman-esk, the masses wanted to just enjoy there bread & games.... 

The concept of an ip economy has well been proven as a spruce goose. 

ip has always been, and always will be, the most vulnerable of assets. Easily stolen through a variety of mechanisms. As China has well proven and championed. 

I don't blame the Chinese, I don't, if anything I envy them. 

I believe the only shot USA and for that matter, the western nations have as a whole, have is a methodical concerted effort and actions to change the social dynamics. The mindsets must shift. Without that, it will all fail. 

Americans have to exterminate their social narcissism. 
The prevailing word of language must become "WE" replacing me, I, my...... 

My fear is the history. 

Americans have a deep history for action after the fact. Europe burned and burned and burned and only after punched straight in the face at Pearl and a miracle staving off total obliteration in the Pacific did USA shift. 

Is that what will be required again? A catastrophe verging on total absolute calamity to bring Americans together as a unified, roll up the sleeve, do what we gotta do "UNUM". 

In 1939 the US military was less that than Portugal's..... Under 190k. 

In 1940, leading up to Pearl, they jokingly thought they were "prepared" at almost 500k. 

Within 12 months of Pearl, over 3 million strong. 24 months later and roughly 8 million....... 

In less than 48 months the USA built, from dirt, the biggest most powerful fighting force the world had ever seen. 

That includes clothing, housing, feeding, training millions upon millions upon milliions. 

Think; how'd they shazam up that many boot's? 

How'd they ever find that many dentist's? 

How in the heck did they manage to move enough food and water every day for millions upon millions? 

The logistics are absolutely mind boggling. And it was achieved in a measurement of weeks and months, not years and decades. 

Everything, EVERYTHING had to be built, created to facilitate it all. There was not enough toilet paper in all the nation for those soldiers butt's. They had to grow manufacturing capacity for literally everything at a rate not only never done in the USA, but never done in human history. 

I don't know how we can do it again, but WE CAN, we did, we did it because we HAD TO. Failure was not an option. 

That mindset lead the way of everything. There was no place for lamenting how hard whatever would be, or how this or that wasn't readily available. A generation of problem solvers, because that was the messaging, that was the requirement expected of everyone, how can you help, what can you solve, what can you do for the greater whole. 

"We do these things not because they are easy....."

If that spirit is gone and dead...... Than so is the USA.....

 ".. but because they are hard!!" - I don't see much of that spirit anymore. Also, not a shining city on the hill anymore. I totally agree with you on what this country can do, the better story than WW2 is probably the rise of NASA. 

It used to be a small operation located in Hampton, Virginia with a handful of engineers launching model air planes from the roof top to better understand airfoils. Not that much later the director of NASA listened to Kennedy's speech on a flight to DC and that's how he found out that we are going to the moon by the end of the decade. 

James Webb got handed a blank checkbook, they hired 17,000 engineers in a matter of months while they were still figuring out where to actually put them - because the necessary office buildings had to be constructed, actually they had not bought the land yet and were still debating where in the country it should be.. totally insane story!!

I have a deep love for who America was back then, how presidents used to be and how the world used to look up to the US as a role model to stand for what's right and just. I love the presidential debate between Kennedy and Nixon, while they disagreed completely on how to do it, they totally agreed on the objective and debated with a lot of respect for each other.

Today I woke up to the news that the president of the United States proclaims that "world leaders are lining up to kiss his ***".

My point is simple—there’s no need for Stuart to publicly criticize those who invested. Fear isn’t what drives me, and it won’t hold me back. I suspect I’m not alone in that.

I get where you're coming from, but you're making a lot of assumptions that simply don’t apply to me. I evaluated the deal like I would any other—based on cash flow, collateral, and real estate fundamentals. It wasn't about hype or blind faith—it was a calculated decision based on what I knew at the time and the information I was given.

I’m also not claiming definitively that it was a Ponzi. I’ve said from the beginning that I’m open to hearing legitimate explanations. But the lack of transparency, the evasion, and refusal to provide basic financials isn’t just poor management—it raises red flags. If this were simply bad operations, you’d expect mistakes and maybe poor judgment—not radio silence and avoidance.

Your statement about “if it looks too good to be true, it probably is” doesn’t help anyone who’s already lost their retirement savings—no matter how dumb you think they were. That kind of blanket cynicism isn’t useful when real people are facing real consequences.

As far as outsized returns and “even the best operators” not delivering them—let me offer a real scenario. I currently have an RV park under contract for $875,000. I’m putting $375,000 down in hard money, with $500,000 in seller financing. With some expansion and strategic improvements—adding spaces and raising rents—I expect the park could be worth close to $3 million. A friend is helping with the improvements and will be paid at exit. That’s an infinite return on my investment. It’s not theoretical—it’s executable. And if I can structure a deal like that, others can too.

@Kris Stack 

A. Foothills Deal – Lack of Business Plan & Risk of Dilution

• How it was sold to investors:
  • Promised 8x-15x returns in 3-4 years.
  • Purchase price was $1,430,000 with $500,000 set aside for planning.

I've generally been sympathetic to those who invested in RAD and similar companies who use social media and conventions to raise capital in such small amounts where running normal diligence is too costly of an endeavor. However, when I see LP's post this, all I can do is shake my head in disbelief. For anyone looking to invest as an LP, if its too good to be true, chances are it is. If someone approaches you with an investment opportunity that "promises" this type of return profile, run! I don't even have to look at the underlying investment to know this is trouble. Perhaps if this was an investment in tech or life sciences where there is the possibility of an IPO you can generate this type of return but real estate does not yield these kinds of returns & anyone looking for these types of returns is investing in the wrong asset class.

They don't need to station people there. 

Just when know the powers going down, ok, get a generator out to lift station, plug it in, turn it on and walk away. 

We have these all over the place in MN. A big-ole Generac just sitting there at lift station. 

Most of our lift stations are in the ground, so all one sees is a concrete slab, metal cover, and a big Generac box on part of the slab. 

And it's for that exact reason, if power goes down something has to power the water pump so there is water pressure still. 

Every city has staff who fiddles with electricity, so even not having thought through the common sense before hand to have this in place, knowing power was going off someone should have said "hey, we need power to pump the water or were gonna be fkd". 

And whatever lift station was still safe, which I can't imagine they turn off power seconds before the flames engulf the lines, they anticipate, so CalFire, the city etc. could have also anticipated, got any trailer generator, tooled it over, rigged it up to connect it, turn on and leave. 

I guarantee at the city services they have a number of these trailer generators just sitting there. Or go to a rental center and allocate them. 

No effort was made on leadership part. They expected firefighters to use what, nasty looks to put out the fires once water stopped? 

There was no way they could cut a fire line in that time, on those hills, with the way everything was. That's like asking em to go stand in a 35 degree hill of gasoline rags as flames approached and try to clear it. 

Water was the only chance, to knock down embers in areas as they started jump fires. That's how the old man and his son did it. 

I totally get that. 

What baffles me is in a fire zone, where it's a normalized thing to need to turn off power grid for safety sake of fires, is there really nobody who thought of having generators at the water lift stations? 

I mean, come-on, that's rather obvious isn't it? 

You need water to fight fires. Need pumps to keep water going. Seems rather obvious to have backup power generation given a policy to turn power off in fire risk instances. 

There was the 1 guy in the middle of the fires who stayed and saved I don't know how many homes, several, because he ran around with a dang garden hose. I am betting via a home generator and a well. 1 old man and a garden hose..... 

So yeah, I question what could have been if someone put there thinking cap on and took a mobile generator to the lift stations so the hydrants would have had water....... 

 scam.