All Forum Posts by: Ken M.

Quote from @Michael Shenouda:

I have yet to jump in to Real Estate Properties... I'm a true victim of paralysis by analysis... But your comment about loans being available to first time buyers (i.e. someone like me) evaporating is concerning. That would kill a major source of entry newbie investors like myself.

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Flix and Flip is only one of a multitude of options for investing. We choose to buy properties at discount with creative finance and turn them into rentals. Others are finding mid term rentals are working for them and some are doing "student" housing, renting by the room.
The market has shifted and it's simply time to find a market you like.

Quote from @Greta Andrews:

How do I know if a wall is load-bearing or not

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Since you haven't stated what you want to accomplish, I'm guessing you are planning on doing some rehab work. It is generally safe ( a bit messy, granted, so lay out some plastic) but take a sheet rock knife and "neatly" cut a 2' x 2' section out of the ceiling and stick your head up to see which way the 2x4s run. You will likely know just by dropping that section. Depending on the age of he house, you will find insulation and dust.

Quote from @Greg M.:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Greg M.:

It means absolutely nothing. It's one piece of data out of a massive mountain of data. 

When I see things like this, I assume the author wanted to influence me in a certain way or came up with a conclusion and is working their way backwards into a story.

Alone, these are garbage numbers.

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Interesting, a little suspicious are we, eh? Nope, it's checking to see how analytical you are as an investor. Nothing sinister. ;-)

Price reductions mean people can't get their properties sold at the opening request and are chasing the market. It's a good time to offer less than the MLS in those markets. The market is softening relative to the availability of buyers. Few buyers, longer days on market, lower prices. Or conversely, a lot more inventory but the number of buyers hasn't kept up.

That is one interpretation of it. There are a hundred others.

I called them garbage numbers for a reason. They don't tell you the reduction amount. I don't care that 30% of listings had a price reduction if that reduction averages <1%. I care very much if the reductions averaged >10%.

There is no backstory to the numbers. Schoolyear started and that's always a slow time for San Antonio. Winter season always slows down Denver sales. The largest employer in Tucson just announced they're moving all their jobs overseas. A new home development with 800 new homes in Jacksonville just hit the market and reduced their listed priced. They all affect the market, but some are normal and others not. 

What are the average numbers for these areas? San Antonio reduction was 25%. How do we know what is normal? Perhaps the average is a 30% reduction before sale in that area. Maybe that area is on fire and homes are selling with less reductions? 

I'm not suspicious, it's just that so many people have not learned how to critically analyze information. They go for the easy "answer". They never ask questions. The death of journalism has turned the brains of most people soft. They see your numbers are think the market is crashing, but that may have no basis in reality. Or maybe it does, but with just those numbers, there is no telling anything.

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Well, then let's take the alternative "is a market where things haven't moved in price for 24 consecutive months a buy, a hold or a sell?" Lol

We're not trying to definitively predict the future here. If a canary in the coal mine sneezes, it doesn't mean the cave is falling in. But it does mean you should look up and see if anything is changing.

Over the last two months, I bought 3 separate SubTo's for my investors for over 15% off list each, from individual sellers,  because I can see the trends. On average, that saved them about $60,000 per house on $400,000 houses that I had no competition on. No one else saw the trends, the opportunities. They were too busy worrying about the declining numbers compared to "what". Lol

Quote from @Melissa Justice:

Hey @Ken M., 

Great question!

When a market sees price reductions, it usually signals a cooling or rebalancing of supply and demand. Here's what that might mean depending on your goals:

For Buyers:
Opportunity!
Price reductions often mean sellers are more motivated. You may be able to negotiate better deals, concessions, or terms. This could be a great time to buy, especially if you're investing for cash flow and not just appreciation.

For Sellers:
Time to be strategic.
You’ll need to price appropriately, make your property stand out, and possibly offer incentives. Overpricing right now can lead to extended days on market. But if your property is in good condition and cash flows well, there’s still a strong investor pool out there.

For Holders:
Hold tight (especially if you're cash flowing).
If you're in a solid equity or cash flow position, this isn't necessarily a time to panic. It’s a chance to evaluate your portfolio, consider improvements, or look for refinancing opportunities.

Markets cycle. The key is to play the long game and adjust your strategy, not your goals. And if you're looking for help navigating investing in today’s shifting landscape, our team at Rent to Retirement helps investors all over the country find cash-flowing properties—even in cooling markets.

Let me know if you'd like any market-specific analysis!

Wishing you much success,

Melissa Justice 

Investment Strategist at Rent to Retirement

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Good analysis. You are a thinker!

Quote from @Greg M.:

It means absolutely nothing. It's one piece of data out of a massive mountain of data. 

When I see things like this, I assume the author wanted to influence me in a certain way or came up with a conclusion and is working their way backwards into a story.

Alone, these are garbage numbers.

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Interesting, a little suspicious are we, eh? Nope, it's checking to see how analytical you are as an investor. Nothing sinister. ;-)

Price reductions mean people can't get their properties sold at the opening request and are chasing the market. It's a good time to offer less than the MLS in those markets. The market is softening relative to the availability of buyers. Few buyers, longer days on market, lower prices. Or conversely, a lot more inventory but the number of buyers hasn't kept up.

Quote from @Myles Berrio:

@James Hamling I offer my phone number because talking on the phone often avoids these kinds of misunderstandings. I'm not click baiting or fishing for anything. I knew a post like this would open up dialogue of great questions and answers and discussion for others to learn from. 

it unfortunately has turned into a couple of guys who feel they are "right" rather than offering your opinion on whether you would buy that deal or not. I never asked to get into why you would use another strategy. 

sorry you feel the way you do but if you can't have cordial dialogue about real estate questions and discussion, maybe just don't leave comments. 

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You're new here so, welcome.
However, be aware you are a few years late in entering into SubTo discussions 
No, you're not going to hurt @James Hamling feelings.

It's just a lot of guys like you have come and gone and some wind up like this . . .

Click to expand

Quote from @Jamil Watts:

Quote from @Ken M.:

Quote from @Jamil Watts:

Ok thanks. I also saw there was due on sale insurance that would take over if the mortgage it is called back. Do you know if that would work? If it does even after they recall hopefully you can retain the property and it would just hurt your cashflow a couple hundred bucks a month until you either sell it or rents appreciate. I'm still learning and trying to figure out the best strategy for me while putting low money down.

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I'm not sure what you've been reading but "due on sale insurance" was a scam. 
Of course, always ask for references and check them out before buying things like that.

Save yourself some time, Here is a list of things you can't do.

https://www.azag.gov/sites/default/files/2025-03/CV2025-008402%20State%20of%20Arizona%20v.%20Cameron%20Jones%20et%20al%20FILED%20%281%29.pdf

Quote from @Jamil Watts:

I'm a rookie investor looking to get my first property and am very interested in the subject to strategy. I am in contact with a title company who pretty much said I probably can't do it in new jersey and the due on sale clause would be triggered either from switching the insurance to my name or when paying taxes. I've heard online that even if it is triggered you could transfer the ownership back to the seller and do lease options indefinitely until the property is paid off. Does anyone in New jersey have experience with subject to that could give me some guidance?

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I know you don't know this, so I'll be kind ;-)

Your comment: "I've heard online that even if it is triggered you could transfer the ownership back to the seller and do lease options indefinitely until the property is paid off."

Sorry, that is very bad information. You should ask your mentor the specific properties he did that to and see what happened. Specific addresses and specific occurrences.

Last year one such mentor got 10 Due on Sale notices, he tried that solution several times (he's the most popular mentor on youtube and instagram right now) but ended up having to find financing for 10 properties, very quickly. His word, in his video. I checked, I have the addresses.

Can you do that? No? Didn't think so. He is full of half truths.

Deeding back can be an unlawful action, cause damage to the seller's credit. You can try to deed it back, however the seller just sold it, why would he want the property back? If you deed it back, it is now his and you can't do a thing about it. The seller left town And you can't find him, now what do you do. You bought it without proper disclosures, now what?

Deeding it back is a "Due on Sale action" You get the loan called, (once a "due on sale is called" there is no requirement on the lender to call off the foreclosure", you lose property insurance, incur transfer fees from the county, truly mess up someone's (seller's)  IRS reporting.

Have you actually read a Due on Sale clause? I would suggest you do so. In the clause it says that "the intent to transfer ownership using "contract for deed" and lease options violate the Due on Sale. It's pretty inclusive.

Your mentor is very wrong and the legal entanglement falls on the person doing the SubTo, not the trainer. The authorities don't "give a pass" to a poorly trained investor on this one, one who says "I didn't know" or "I was told . . .". Too many people get hurt.

You mentor says his information is for "entertainment" purposes only. Why would he have to say that?

Word of wise advice to the newbie, ask an attorney in your area. But then, your mentor didn't tell you what questions to ask, now did he. Hmmm. That's a problem.

You can get your money back (and stay out of trouble) by contacting the Attorney General in your state. They are interested in you being repaid your money and not getting visited by them for other, more serious reasons.

Well, after all that, you will do what you will do.
I do wish you well though.

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Quote from @Greg Scott:

@Ken M.

I love the link you sent.  Also, I 100% agree that investors should always be buying below market, which was the important point you were making.

But, I am confused about your first sentence.  The suggestion that a foreclosure tsunami is coming does not seem to be borne out by the report you provided.  There two charts in particular (screen shot below) that show the risk has moderated significantly since 2020.  

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Here's the rest of the story.

I just bought a property where the seller had THREE unpaid loan mods. Accumulated unpaid debt to the lender. In 2022, 2023, 2024 and was currently in foreclosure in 2025, so he missed payments yet again. He seemingly made no payments because of the *very* generous programs that came about as a result of covid and are still in place. He was offered loan mods and said "sure, I'll take that loan mod, why not".


Well, that's the official story from HUD that "covid made them do it", "my dog ate my homework".

The not so funny thing is, he's working. He has income. In tracking down what went on, it's a far bigger problem/scam than that.

Seems FHA & VA are selling off bad loans in tranches to hedge funds, on a scale not seen before. That removes them from the pool of "bad loans". They are no longer counted. The owners are still not paying, but the hedge funds are just waiting for an opportune time to take advantage. A hedge fund is in business to make money. It's likely these loans are sold at a substantial discount.

"Qualifying For A Loan Modification"

"Candidates for a loan modification include anyone who finds themselves unable to keep up with their mortgage payments and facing a possible foreclosure."

(I had to remove the link for this is paste, but you can find it this with a quick search)

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Count the number of loan mods out there, and the number of properties with missed payments, and the number of loans sold to hedge funds, the current unaffordability of houses and whatever other devices they have used to disguise the true situation and you have a problem. Water always finds it's level. So does the market.

I am an early "trend line" kind of guy. Figuring this out after it happens is not impressive. ;-)

I am not saying it will be the size of the 2008 disaster, but it will for certain be the size of whatever the typical downturn has been for the last 125 years.

I'm buying accordingly. I expect prices to drop considerably over the next year or two, such as they have been in markets like Florida, Texas and Arizona.

Remember, an election was looming and it doesn't look good for an administration to have that much down turn in the economy. So, they (Biden/Harris) "cooked" the books.

There is a new guy in town, and as soon as they get to it, these problems will need to be dealt with.

By the way, A tsunami starts at one foot in height.