All Forum Posts by: Ken M.

Quote from @James McGovern:

What are the gotchas in listing with Redfin? Are there activities they don't do that other listing agents perform by default?

Either Redfin or Zillow will get you on the websites.

Zillow is free, but where they place the Zillow ads on the page causes people to click on an ad that an agent has bought the space for thinking it is you. That means instead of contacting you, they inadvertently contact an advertising agent and you never get notified.

Quote from @Andre Penn:

My name is Andre, I'm 19 yrs old trying to get my first deal. I've been in it since the beginning of this year. The markets near me are seemingly over saturated so I thought to look to other markets out of state that aren't as saturated to have a better chance of getting many deals/ connections! I guess I'm asking is this a good idea? 

 Hi Andre, be very careful. Each state has it's own laws about what you can do and what you can't do in that state.

Quote from @Michelle Hall:

I have been looking into this website www.withroam.com to potentially purchase a subto property.

They charge a 1% fee if you purchase through them.

Has anyone used this website before? Was it a smooth process?

Thanks!!

Purchasing a SubTo through a website is like purchasing a personal submarine from an east European port and not knowing how to drive one. Will it float, maybe, is it a narco sub, perhaps, is someone looking for it to cause problems? ? ?

There is just too much missing information and risk.

The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall - May 29, 2025

• There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market.

• Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. Prospective buyers may see their purchasing power increase, and prospective sellers should consider selling sooner rather than later.

• 31 of the top 50 metros are buyer’s markets. The strongest buyer’s market is Miami, where sellers outnumber buyers roughly 3 to 1. The strongest seller’s market is Newark, and the most balanced market is St. Louis.

Metro-Level Summary: 50 Most Populous Metros (April 2025)

Search:

U.S. metro area	Balance of power	Sellers	Buyers	% difference: sellers vs buyers	Median sale price	Median sale price: Y/Y change
Anaheim, CA	Buyer's market	6,685	4,821	38.7%	$1,182,683	0.8%
Atlanta, GA	Buyer's market	36,862	22,651	62.7%	$396,150	0.3%
Austin, TX	Buyer's market	17,386	7,757	124.1%	$433,990	-3.0%
Baltimore, MD	Seller's market	9,251	10,485	-11.8%	$388,919	4.0%
Boston, MA	Balanced market	10,922	11,725	-6.9%	$742,377	5.2%
Charlotte, NC	Buyer's market	15,557	9,709	60.2%	$405,322	2.1%
Chicago, IL	Balanced market	25,128	24,104	4.2%	$359,348	6.2%
Cincinnati, OH	Balanced market	7,743	8,176	-5.3%	$294,351	5.2%
Cleveland, OH	Seller's market	6,659	8,855	-24.8%	$238,685	11.6%
Columbus, OH	Buyer's market	8,308	7,147	16.2%	$333,968	-0.7%
Dallas, TX	Buyer's market	32,020	17,774	80.2%	$416,539	-0.8%
Denver, CO	Buyer's market	16,357	11,525	41.9%	$585,046	-0.1%
Detroit, MI	Buyer's market	6,526	5,580	16.9%	$195,920	2.6%
Fort Lauderdale, FL	Buyer's market	21,018	7,525	179.3%	$451,709	1.2%
Fort Worth, TX	Buyer's market	13,646	8,507	60.4%	$356,430	-0.4%
Houston, TX	Buyer's market	44,743	25,327	76.7%	$337,077	0.3%
Indianapolis, IN	Buyer's market	8,538	7,070	20.8%	$309,734	3.5%
Jacksonville, FL	Buyer's market	14,479	6,598	119.5%	$368,311	-3.4%
Kansas City, MO	Balanced market	8,152	7,968	2.3%	$326,474	0.8%
Las Vegas, NV	Buyer's market	13,814	7,192	92.1%	$448,605	2.4%
Los Angeles, CA	Buyer's market	20,189	13,941	44.8%	$899,032	0.7%
Miami, FL	Buyer's market	21,672	7,280	197.7%	$574,696	5.6%
Milwaukee, WI	Buyer's market	4,600	4,171	10.3%	$342,322	10.0%
Minneapolis, MN	Balanced market	12,842	13,994	-8.2%	$390,029	3.2%
Montgomery County, PA	Seller's market	4,632	7,513	-38.4%	$501,422	5.4%
Nashville, TN	Buyer's market	14,935	7,859	90.0%	$467,178	0.0%
Nassau County, NY	Seller's market	7,440	12,763	-41.7%	$717,506	7.0%
New Brunswick, NJ	Seller's market	8,628	10,599	-18.6%	$560,136	5.7%
New York, NY	Balanced market	27,564	29,854	-7.7%	$765,736	4.9%
Newark, NJ	Seller's market	5,241	9,899	-47.1%	$622,545	12.2%
Oakland, CA	Buyer's market	6,565	4,820	36.2%	$904,023	-5.6%
Orlando, FL	Buyer's market	19,555	10,184	92.0%	$407,411	0.8%
Philadelphia, PA	Balanced market	8,077	7,439	8.6%	$285,456	4.9%
Phoenix, AZ	Buyer's market	32,418	16,159	100.6%	$452,290	-2.1%
Pittsburgh, PA	Buyer's market	9,116	8,072	12.9%	$249,303	8.7%
Portland, OR	Buyer's market	9,963	7,526	32.4%	$552,734	0.4%
Providence, RI	Seller's market	4,357	5,196	-16.1%	$489,974	3.2%
Riverside, CA	Buyer's market	17,991	11,151	61.3%	$590,354	1.5%
Sacramento, CA	Buyer's market	7,014	4,841	44.9%	$590,619	0.5%
San Antonio, TX	Buyer's market	17,915	9,687	84.9%	$309,290	0.0%
San Diego, CA	Buyer's market	7,728	6,772	14.1%	$901,022	-0.5%
San Francisco, CA	Buyer's market	3,188	2,432	31.1%	$1,494,441	-0.7%
San Jose, CA	Balanced market	3,030	3,180	-4.7%	$1,601,398	3.0%
Seattle, WA	Buyer's market	9,052	8,170	10.8%	$821,991	0.2%
St. Louis, MO	Balanced market	9,327	9,447	-1.3%	$272,314	6.8%
Tampa, FL	Buyer's market	26,917	12,313	118.6%	$371,028	-1.3%
Virginia Beach, VA	Balanced market	7,077	6,961	1.7%	$351,589	1.2%
Warren, MI	Balanced market	8,333	9,133	-8.8%	$317,350	6.2%
Washington, DC	Balanced market	16,881	15,405	9.6%	$574,913	3.6%
West Palm Beach, FL	Buyer's market	18,075	6,409	182.0%	$513,683	2.7%
National—U.S.A.	Buyer’s market	1,943,669	1,453,628	33.7%	$431,931	1.6%

Methodology

The number of sellers in the market is simply active listings, or the total number of homes actively for sale at any point during a given month. Active listings data come from the MLS. (By Redfin)

https://www.redfin.com/news/sellers-vs-buyers-price-impact/

Quote from @Alexander Szikla:

Housing Market Emerges as Recession's Leading Threat The American real estate market is sending a clear warning signal: we may be witnessing the early stages of an economic downturn. As economists at Moody's and J.P. Morgan put recession odds as high as 65%, analysts have shifted their focus from tariff fears to housing sector weakness as the most immediate threat to economic stability. The warning signs are mounting fast: 77% of Americans say it's a bad time to buy a home (Fannie Mae, April 2025) Mortgage rates hovering near 7% are crushing demand (old story) Home Purchase Sentiment Index shows a net-55% rating for buying conditions Inflation-adjusted residential investment remains flat Citi Research expects housing activity to contract in Q2 after a sluggish start to the year, with the combination of falling permits, rising inventory, and slipping prices painting a picture of a market running out of steam. The pain isn't limited to residential either—MSCI's RCA index recorded price declines across all major commercial property types for the first time since 2010, with multifamily assets taking the biggest hit at -12.1% year-over-year. While the Fed remains on the sidelines for now, Citi suggests it could be forced to accelerate rate cuts if housing market declines start hitting employment metrics. As one analyst put it: housing may not cause the next recession, but it's likely where we'll see it first.

Commercial Real Estate Hits Historic Slowdown The residential warning signs are reverberating through commercial real estate, where March 2025 recorded the lowest monthly transaction volume in nearly a year. Deal activity fell 3.9% as investors shifted into full "wait-and-see" mode amid policy uncertainty and economic headwinds. The sector breakdown tells a stark story: Retail led declines at -40% Office fell 11.4% (though lending surged 205%) Apartments dropped 9.6% but still topped volume at $9.2B Industrial bucked the trend, rising 25.7% Investor sentiment reflects this widespread caution: 70% now recommend "hold" strategies—up 14 points from last quarter—while only 23% favor buying and just 7% are selling. Apartments stood out as the only sector with more buy than hold recommendations, driven by demand for stable cash flow in uncertain times. Yet beneath the surface caution, contradictory signals emerge. Despite slower deal flow, CRE returns actually rose 40 basis points in Q1 to a near three-year high, with one-year returns hitting 2.7%. Retail led at 1.8%, while apartments and industrial each posted 1.3%. Even office returns turned positive, though they remain negative year-over-year. The contradiction deepens with financing: CRE originations jumped 42% year-over-year in Q1, driven by that massive 205% surge in office lending. Narrowing yield spreads and rising property prices for five straight quarters suggest a potential pricing floor may be forming. Development Pipeline Reveals Geographic Rebalancing While investors pause and buyers retreat, developers are quietly reshaping the multifamily landscape in ways that reveal the market's next chapter. New Census data shows a fascinating convergence: Austin, Orlando, Phoenix, and Atlanta each posted remarkably similar annual permit totals between 11,400-12,300 units—but the underlying trends tell a story of dramatic geographic rebalancing. Pandemic hotspots are cooling fast: Austin: -7,910 units (steepest decline nationally) Phoenix: -5,891 units Atlanta: -3,088 units Miami: -3,000+ units (dropped to #16 nationally) Los Angeles and Washington DC: -4,000 to -4,500 units each Meanwhile, emerging markets are heating up: Orlando: +4,351 units (strong growth despite regional trends) Columbus, OH: +22% year-over-year Chicago and Anaheim showing renewed strength Smaller metros like Fayetteville, Omaha, Des Moines, and Augusta all gained 1,200-2,200 units This shift suggests developers are chasing opportunities beyond traditional pandemic winners, spreading growth to up-and-coming markets with better fundamentals and less frothy pricing. Construction across all sectors has hit multi-year lows, potentially setting up stronger rent growth when demand returns. The Inflection Point What emerges from this data is a picture of a real estate market in fundamental transition. We're witnessing residential weakness, commercial caution, and shifting development patterns that suggest the market is recalibrating after years of pandemic-driven volatility—but not necessarily collapsing. The contradictions tell the story: While transaction volumes hit 12-month lows and consumer sentiment craters, returns are rising, originations are surging, and tariff-driven market turmoil has revived CRE's attractiveness as a safe haven alongside cash and bonds. Fresh capital is eyeing opportunities as the market potentially finds its footing. What to watch in the coming months: Whether Fed intervention becomes necessary if housing weakness hits employment If CRE's recent return improvements can sustain amid transaction volume declines How emerging multifamily markets absorb new supply as coastal hotspots cool

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The market tops out at 35% debt to income level payments with 3.5% down FHA loans.

FHA allows 3.5% down (the least I am aware of other than VA zero down) and 35% DTI that comes with an added PMI cost.

So if you take 35% of a monthly income of $10,000 ($3,500) then a purchase of $535,000 with 3.5% down means a loan of $516,275 @ 6.8% ($3,365 plus taxes $125 plus insurance $100 plus PMI $315 and your payment is $3,905 (which means you wouldn't qualify) means making $120,000 a year and having somewhere around 3.5% or $12,000 to put down and $7,000 for closing costs, so you need $20,000 in the bank.  

 In reality, yes interest rates play a minor role, however the cost of the property far exceeds what banks will lend as a portion of income. 

No loan. No purchase. 

It's pretty clear, it's not simple to solve, but clear what the problem is. Houses are 30% over priced.

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

Quote from @James Mc Ree:

@Chris Seveney How would you reasonably have caught this situation before purchasing the note?

The refinance title didn't catch it. Maybe that transaction's title insurance should have covered it instead of yours, assuming they had it. Doing the "dig deep" thing makes sense, but this is a situation where 2 title companies and an industry expert missed it.

 Nothing in this instance would have ever caught it, its very common for people to refinance a first mortgage when they also have a second (like a line of credit in place) and most states have laws that are clear that the refinance of the first slides it into that first position --

So you never know when a junior lien could argue lien position or fight a foreclosure as it is there right. 

Best thing to do is always have title insurance - as if I did not I would have had to spend $100k in defending my loan.

Your comment: "as if I did not I would have had to spend $100k in defending my loan." and 3 years.

People greatly underestimate the cost of a lawsuit, both financially and time consumption. It takes your focus off of investing. As an experienced investor, you were still pulled into a situation that you did not control. I'm glad it worked out for you. Good job for hanging in there.

Now think of the unfortunately gullible people who believe SubTo is an easy type of investing with no need for money and no need for availability of funds to pay off one that "goes bad".  And, they do "go bad". 

The amount of hubris I see around this subject is "mind blowing" as we used to say. Anyone doing SubTo should have a contingency fund ready to go. Title insurance will not cover the types of lawsuits brought by defrauded sellers or by attorneys general.

I'm betting we will see plenty of lawsuits coming up and the common excuse will be "my guru/mentor/teacher said I could do that". 

That argument does not hold up in court.

When my wife and I first visited Scottsdale in 2007, the real estate agent said we'd better buy the $2,000,000 baseball player's property right away because it would double in 2008 to $4,000,000. We thanked her for her advice but politely declined. And of course the crash hit.

It hadn't sold and the next year it was listed at $800,000 because that is where the market had shifted to. It's now in the $1,200,000 range 18 years and two owners later.

The point is, even Scottsdale, which boasts more millionaires per capita, than any other city in the country "Scottsdale is one of the country's fastest-growing cities in terms of wealth. There are 243,000 residents — about 14,600 of them are millionaires, and five are billionaires, AZ Central reported in March. According to the USA Wealth Report by Henley & Partners, that's a 102% increase in millionaire residents over the past decade." 

Even Scottsdale has a reset to go through coming up. Beautiful place If you can take the heat — it will go below 105 degrees again in October. Yep, this is May. Crazy investors buy crazy properties. But, the reset always arrives.

Quote from @Melissa Lindsey:

I have a seller who wants to cancel our contract. I am highly suspicious she wants to work with someone else. I'm fine with letting her out, however I have been doing work trying to find a buyer and don't really want to hand it over without at least some compensation for my time. Are there any options for me here?

.
Your comment "I have been doing work trying to find a buyer"

That makes you an agent or a wholesaler.

If you are an agent, they are bound to the contract. Do your best. You can do this! Make it happen. However, you are not entitled to compensation for trying, (this isn't the 5th grade getting a trophy for showing up) unless it states that in the contract.

If you are a wholesaler, you are probably breaking the law and I'd end the relationship before lawsuits and investigations start flying. 

Quote from @Heidi Cousineau:

Hey BP community 👋

I’m at the very beginning of my investing journey and could use some insight or lender referrals.

I'm trying to buy a 2–4 unit multifamily property in the Troy, NY area, ideally house hacking it to get started. I'll be living in one of the units and am exploring both FHA (3.5% down) and Conventional (5% down) loan options.

Here’s my situation:

• I’ll be the occupant-borrower.
  
• Credit Score: ~650
• Income: $60K base + variable commission (1099 + W2 mix)
• I also run a small construction side hustle bringing in additional income (not fully documented yet)
• My best friend and investing partner will be a non-occupant co-borrower.
  
• Credit Score: 780
• Income: $150K/year W2
• Zero debt
• She won’t live in the property but we’re 50/50 partners on all deals

We jointly own an Airbnb in Florida (our first!), but it hasn’t been operating for a full year yet, so I know that rental income may not help us qualify.

My questions:

• Have any of you used FHA with a non-occupant co-borrower?
• Would we have a better shot going conventional?
• Any lenders you’d recommend who understand creative structures like this?
• Are there other financing strategies we’re missing?

We’re not afraid to hustle—just want to make sure we start smart. Our long-term goal is to scale to 1,000 doors, and this is our first real chess move.

Grateful for any insights, lender intros, or advice 🙏

—Heidi

When I was a loan officer, we could use both incomes but credit was based  on the lesser borrower and that person had to live in the property for at least the first year, unless there were provable extenuating circumstances.  I don't know if that has changed.

Run it by a mortgage broker, not a bank. Don't omit, lie or exaggerate on your loan app. (It's called fraud and they are hunting fraud now) Don't take the largest amount they authorize you for. Expenses will go up over time so your payment will increase simply because of taxes and insurance. And by all means, my advice is to not do a variable rate loan.

Quote from @Ashley Kehr:

Just came across this Redfin article and thought it was worth discussing here.

According to Redfin, there are now 1.9 million home sellers vs. 1.5 million buyers—that’s a 34% gap, the widest since 2013. Nearly half of all listings in April sat on the market for 60+ days, and Redfin is forecasting a 1% price drop by the end of the year.

As someone trying to make smart investment decisions in 2025, this shift has me thinking:

• Are we finally moving into a buyer’s market again?

• Is this the time to get more aggressive with offers, or are there still too many variables (rates, affordability, etc.) to act fast?

• For the sellers here—have you had to adjust your pricing or strategy lately?

Curious to hear what others are seeing in their local markets. Are you noticing more room to negotiate? More deals falling through? Would love to know how you’re navigating this shift.

Your question: "Are we finally moving into a buyer’s market again?"

No, not yet. The buyers can't afford the prices. The lenders won't lend on the debt to income ratios. and it isn't yet a "blue moon". Pigs don't fly and unicorns don't fart rainbows.

Someone is going to take the "hair cut" (suffer significant loss) before it's time to buy.