All Forum Posts by: Kevin Lefeuvre

Back in Feb 2020, most of us thought (per this popular ) that the markets would be more or less severely impacted if the Pandemic persists.

Commercial RE suffered immediately for everything Office and some related, while storage type properties or mixed usage stayed strong.

The divide was not only in the politics but also in the economy. Some businesses like Tech values sky rocketed while some others such as in retail or hospitality became weaker if not bankrupt.

However for the residential real estate, except for some niche markets, the general trend was a strong, sellers market across the country with high demand and short inventory pushing prices up even during traditionally seasonal down periods which used to be the October-December. Most of us thought it would take about 6 to 12 months before the crisis impact the real estate, but it did not happen. In fact the WFH created more need for space in homes creating more demand. Although in the long run the middle class is squeezed, in the short term, they seem to have saved enough money because there is nowhere they can spend it. And of course the mortgage forbearance and eviction moratoriums were also quickly introduced by governors.

But how will the end of the mortgage forbearance and eviction moratoriums impact the real estate? Did these 2 tools just postpone the problem from 2020 to 2021? Who knows if they will be extended or not? Who knows if we'll keep printing money and artificially keep the markets alive?

So what are your thoughts? How do you think the Residential RE market will evolve in 2021 ?

Your Via Estoril in LN seems fair but I don't think there is any townhouse in the Newport back bay or bluffs (Vista Dorado) which would appraise for $1M and which would rent for $6500 per month.

Maybe because SD is attracting a lot of investors and simply new residents from across the country. They need temporary housing as they settle. Good policies and an amazing governor helps. 

Received their letter aka "Directed Share Program" today and came here to read this great community's feedback.
I think it's another careless treatment of the hosts , while trying to pretend that we are privileged to receive their offer. "Host Privilege" lol!

First of, it's gonna be shares and not options. Second: no discount, just the IPO price. Possibly a red flag by itself. They are kinda selling the company, partially to hosts, trying to minimize their risk. I would not be surprised if the host reresent a non negligible part of their share buyers. Part of the IPO strategy and not a gift to hosts. Funny! And they present it as a wonderful gift to us privileged hosts. What's customary for "insiders" in a tech company (advisors, early contractors, employees, "friends and family" as they call it ) is to get options at a discounted purchase price. Meaning that you don't pay anything, you just receive the cash of the difference between the stock price and the option price. There is no loss possible. I for one can buy at IPO price and don't need their "offer".  For over a decade, Airbnb mistreated the hosts to the extent of public apologies last April and now all they offer is $300 or so of shares at IPO price. Shame on them.

I concur with Mike thinking they are desperate. The timing of the IPO is good for sure, thinking market , I am not sure Airbnb's number are that good. For sure better than in April but far from being as good as in 2019. The funds they raised 6 months ago will not be enough to finish 2021. So it's not a glorious IPO, they badly need it.

I personally stopped all STRs but know that in my LA units I would be fully booked again, not by tourists but by locals. The worst clients. Highest expectations, lowest care. Glad I stopped. There is a much smaller inventory in my market, so the nightly prices are like before. Elsewhere I guess some ski markets and a few beach markets are still strong but I doubt on a global basis they are anywhere close to 2019 numbers. So yes Airbnb is doing better than hotels and Air transport, but far far from being in good shape. 

 Hahaha. Ok condo if you prefer.

You won the lottery. You have to pickup either a 1600 sqft townhouse in Newport Coast or a 2200 sqft SFR in Laguna Niguel. No photo, no further details. They guarantee you both are appraised $1M and you have to pick one. Which one will you choose and why?

UPDATE 7/8/2020: They finally caught up around end of May with the late payments only to get worse now.

Also they have now removed the payout date which used to appear on the dashboard for the reservation even though it was no longer reliable. I called them today to know when I am supposed to receive the new delayed payouts and they are talking about 3 weeks minimum. I guess they took the PPP funds and now they are out of cash again. These payouts I am waiting for are due since end of June for money guests paid them and they are supposed to have put in escrow for me since Jan 2020.

How are VRBO payouts working for everyone else here?

Elon is sick and tired of California with the hypocrats ruling against all any business common sense since the incident at the Tesla factory in Nor Cal.  

 I watched first 2 minutes of a video he has to sell the book and he specifically says it's not REITS. I'm curious to know what it is too. 

Not sure why so many comments here considering it's too much. Facts are quite clear: They forecast 2020 to be half of 2019 revenue. Which is in line with what we are seeing as hosts. Most savvy CEOs would cut immediately costs. They have to. And it shows they are actually very optimistic by cutting ONLY 25% of workforce. Many other CEOs would cut more and sooner.

I am no fan of Airbnb at all, and I believe the days of the CEO as CEO are counted, not because of this but because of being unable to handle the crisis, especially with the breach of agreement with the hosts and deciding unilaterally to refund cancellations despite policies clearly defined. I think Airbnb's biggest assets were hosts, their motivation to build long term positive reviews, 5 stars, etc... and reputation, that he destroyed.

As for looking to build a 3rd platform after airbnb/vrbo, No, I don't believe that's the issue despite all the imperfection. This is a travel industry crisis not platforms. There is already a 3rd and a 4th and a 5th platform out there, all about to go bankrupt.