All Forum Posts by: Kevin Lefeuvre

I lost out on 2 houses in Seattle proper on Thursday.  1 had 9 offers, winner waived all contingencies (risky) and the prices soared $175,000 over asking so demand in Seattle is still sizzling.  We’ll see if it remains so.  This was as our tourism/hospitality/restaurant industry was crashing and our schools were canceled for 6 weeks.  Buyers seem undeterred.

 A correction would be refreshing to see.

 I thought Disneyland was closed?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/media/disneyland-close-coronavirus/index.html

Now that Airbnb has unilaterally decided to refund all guests that cancel, this is crushing our short term rental high season.  This is the nail in the coffin for me and Airbnb.  So far, losses are $10k and likely to get worse before it gets better.  I understand allowing guests to cancel, but why not treat it like the airlines, "no change fees" but the rates stay the same?  Anyone up for a class action lawsuit?

Conservative estimate over next 3-7 months is 48M hospilizations, 96M cases, 480k deaths. Rogan Podcast

In AZ they just shut down spring training, this alone would be enough to spin certain cities into recession. I have friends that were scheduled to close on B class hotel assets on sell side and had buyer term sheets pulled a week before close. Financing for hospitality assets in some markets is dry. 3 cities announced eviction moratorium and more to come. If we get a statewide eviction moratorium I do not see my tenants getting out of bed in the morning.

So who are the winners and losers? I think  The economic impacts to RE are already in progress,  just beginning and very real.  

@Andrea Cole

I was in Europe when President Trump banned foreign travel into the country. I’m currently writing this on the plane from London to San Francisco! We had to cancel several AirBNB locations and all were understanding and agreeable.

So if your policies contain a subsection for “worldwide infectious diseases” then follow it. But in all seriousness, I would never book with a person that didn’t refund for COVID-19.

@Andrea Cole I don't own STR but I don't expect a full refund because a show/concert/expo was canceled. Are hotels in the area giving full refunds? I am of the philosophy that if you wanted a refund in the future you should have bought insurance.

This is inaccurate. It doesn't do as well in heat but right now it's spreading in the Philippines despite temperatures in the 90s. They just shut down most schools and stopped all travel in & out of Manila.

It makes no difference if the fear of this virus is real or not.  It only has to be real to the people who think it will effect them and the actions of our politicians.  A job generates one dollar.  That one dollar gets spent seven (7) times in its local economy, (cleaners, restaurants, movies, clothing, rent, etc)  If that job is suddenly cut it takes those seven (7) dollars out of the economy.  Austin, Tx just cancelled SXSW, a convention that brings $400M to Austin.  Houston just cancelled the rodeo.  An event that brings $600M into Houston.  Some vendors work all year to sell product at those events and that makes their whole year.  Already people here in Houston are not eating out at Chinese restaurants.  They are suffering.  They and all other businesses who depend on the public will start loosing money fast.  Waiters will get laid off, chefs, suppliers.  The ripple will go on and on.  If our renters can't pay the rent, if home buyers can't buy houses out of fear of loosing their jobs believe me we in the real estate business will get hit when we can't make our mort. payments.  Banks will begin to foreclose.  If this thing goes on for a year we will be in deep!  Most people are living pay check to paycheck.  It won't take long for the impact to hit us.  Hold on.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.