All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

The notion that travel was going to continue at 2021 rates and trends forever was always crazy to me.  Of course travel demand was going to level off, return to more normal trends (international, metro, etc), just like literally EVERYTHING else that boomed as a result of covid eventually returned to normal.

The world didn't fundamentally change.  Everyone isn't riding their Peletons into Zoom meetings while buying their toilet paper on Shopify websites any more then they've decided they're all going to travel 4 times as much as normal, forget hotels exist, and limit their travel only to destinations that are drivable from their large city.  All of that was temporary.

Then you have the bullwhip effect.  Everyone sees the surging demand for drive-to mountain/beach destinations, supply at those places increases, and as demand levels off back to normal occupancy lowers since supply is now higher than last time demand was at this level.  It's a well known and common term in economics.

If anything gas and inflation may be HELPING these markets hold on a little longer as people who were initially excited to get back to Disney or Europe decide maybe they need to settle for Blue Ridge just one more time until flight prices lessen.

We love it there and have looked there, but it seems like the margins are tight enough there that you'd have a hard time cash flowing if you use a PM.

Hey I live right up the road from you, hello fellow Utahn!

Smokies could probably do that. I've got one in Orlando could do that pretty easily, especially if you're willing to put a little money into the property. There are some hidden expenses in Orlando compared to other markets though (high Fl taxes/ins, high HOA in the resort communities, high utility bills).

$800k-$850k will get you an 8BR in a resort community that projects out to around $100k.  Add another ~$50k-75k of theming to the property and you could increase that revenue number to somewhere in the $150k-$180k range.

 If you've got a spare $4M lying around! ;)

I was under the impression that AZ law prohibited cities from regulating STRs?  Or is it just from banning them altogether?

Sports cars will be one of the quickest to fall.  Yes there is something to be said for feeling American gas muscle gurgling under your seat but the most fun part about driving sports cars is the torque and EVs can't be matched in the feeling of torque.  Many sports cars are already piping in fake engine sounds anyway.  Then you add in that sports cars are already very expensive which takes away the biggest obstacle of most EV purchases and there's little reason for the gas versions to stick around.  Most sports cars are already coming out with EV versions of the car and it won't be long at all before those are the standard and the gas ones are the ones you have to search for in the sports car world.

Now if I could just find an EV sports car with an actual clutch instead of paddle shifters.

The ROI seems minimal right now but I'd have to imagine that will only grow in time (so may as well get it done now), especially as more EV trucks and large SUVs (travel vehicles) start being released and the prices start coming down as they always do with wider adoption.

How does this even work with cleaners, handymen, etc?  You have to find all those for just the 3 weeks or whatever and hope they're still available again next year, or does the timeshare company provide those things?

If you're going to move into it why not just pick the market you'd rather live in?

In terms of living, there are some advantages to TN as a state, but you're going to be able to get a much nicer place with a lot more land in WNC for the same amount of money.

The biggest problem with AirDNA is that it's a lagging indicator and we're in a period of fast change.  In a normal market I think they've got the algorithm working pretty well.  The problem is that it's using lagging data and when the market is changing fast you're looking at old data.  So coming out of covid it was underestimating because 2021 was a huge boom year but it didn't have much 2021 data yet.  Now it's the opposite as things slow down and return to normal some.  I think it's overestimating because it's still using 2021 travel boom data even as travel slows down back towards more historical levels some.