All Forum Posts by: Ryan Moyer

 Stayfi?  How so?  You can put an opt-in button on the emails.  Not sure how that's any different than hostfully and it's certainly less intrusive than just cold texting/emailing them months later based on the phone number you got from airbnb when they haven't opted in to marketing communications.

Last 18 months up through about mid-August were temporary.  Pent up travel demand out of Covid.  Everyone took 4 times as many vacations as usual.  It was fun.  It was awesome.  It was easy.  It was always going to be temporary.

Now travel is returning back to normal.  But supply (listings) are up 50% since 2019 as everyone tried to get a piece of that sweet post-covid travel bone, so there's probably going to be a supply/demand imbalance in the other direction for a little while.  It will all level back out closer to more historic trends in the end.

 It sounds like OP is doing 50% of profits, not revenue. Typical 20-30% PMs do that based on revenue which in many markets is probably actually more than 50% of profits. 

 A lot of people. It's literally the reason airbnb was invented. 

I realize it's far from their primary business model now, but there has always been a good market for it in many areas. 

I use Hospitable, Pricelabs, Resort Cleaning, Rankbreeze, expensify (bookkeeping).

I'm sure Pricelabs more than pays for all of them on its own.  Airbnb/VRBO's dynamic pricing are garbo.  Hospitable/RC are worth the tiny amounts to me to save time to live my best life.

Probably going to switch from Hospitable to Ownerrez when I get a chance.

Tony Robinson does this at 10% but he is well known and has a lot credibility. As an unknown with no past deals I'd imagine it would take more. More risk for the investor so they are likely going to want bigger returns, unless it's family/friends. 

This definitely seems like a prime market for the bullwhip effect that we are seeing in a lot of STR areas right now, but especially ones like this.

A market that traditionally has mediocre demand, suddenly has MASSIVE demand as everyone's travel is essentially forced into it.  Then supply in terms of both number of properties available and quality of properties/hosts comes in to meet that demand.  Then demand starts returning to more normal levels for the area (still elevated from the 2019 demand, but nowhere near 2021) and we're left with a huge supply/demand imbalance.

Looking at calendars is great for getting an idea but it certainly has limitations, especially around seasonality.  If you want an accurate picture you really need to use all of them.  Just looking at calendars and calendars only may work in some markets like Gatlinburg or Orlando where seasonality is limited to a month here and there.  But in a typical market it can be difficult to get data out of season by just looking at calendars.

Someone underwrite a property in Park City right now using only calendars.  You're going to way overestimate if you're only looking at the next few months because those are the ultra high season.  Even with some understanding of that, it would be difficult to underwrite the rest of the year.  Calendars in Park City are completely empty after winter but I can tell you that Park City is hopping in the summer.  Does that mean hopping as much as winter? 25% of winter? 50% of winter?  70% of winter?  There's no way to know right now without having access to some past analytical data because no one has booked their summer trips to Park City yet.  Same deal for spring.  Spring is slow.  How slow?  Can you expect 0% occupancy?  10%?  40%?

Luke's place in Destin would make the perfect enemy to underwrite based on.  But it has, what, $5000 in bookings total on the calendar right now?  On a property that absolutely crushes it, but anyone trying to underwrite that market for the first time right now would have no idea.

Sean has been an influencer for years and has only every used/pushed the arbitrage model.  Not sure if that's where all the arbitrage posts are coming from or not but he's been around, and popular, for quite a while.