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All Forum Posts by: Paul Novak

Paul Novak has started 21 posts and replied 146 times.

Post: Expand Or Payoff

Paul Novak
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Wisconsin
  • Posts 146
  • Votes 109
Quote from @Dave Foster:

@Paul Novak, There are a couple of things to strategically consider for the direction you want to head.

1. Selectively winnowing out the properties that are not performing well, not trending well, or with capital expenses looming.  I love to buy and hold.  But even the staunchest buy and holder has to realize that one roof can wipe out years of income.   

2. As part of this winnowing you want to keep all of your money moving forward while reducing risk and debt.  You can do this using a kind of recession proofing 1031 exchange - Sell properties that have profit and depreciation worth protecting.  And 1031 into two replacement properties.  Pay cash for one and maximum leverage for the other (because you can allocate your proceeds any way you want).  Once this is done you now own one free and clear property (closer to your goal right?). And you also have a property that has debt on it.  But is performing.

If you keep doing this periodically you'll end up with a fleet of free and clear properties free of risk and accomplishing your retirement goals.  then you'll start to take the properties that have debt on them and sell and 1031 into DSTs (Delaware Statutory Trusts) where the debt that is absorbed is non-recourse to you.   And you get the modest cash flow from the investment PLUS... You still keep your tax-deferred, and you still get all of the other real estate benefits like amortization, depreciation and appreciation.  But you have no personaly liability for the debt.


 This was a really interesting take on this and is a really cool perspective.  Thanks for sharing.

Post: Expand Or Payoff

Paul Novak
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Wisconsin
  • Posts 146
  • Votes 109
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Paul Novak:
Quote from @V.G Jason:

Is that $11k/mo in today's world or in the future's world? If today's world, are you factoring into the cost of inflation for the remainder of your life? Every 10-15 years, assume 40% more in costs. 

An age would help, too.  Depending upon that, and your financial health I would just recommend hanging tight and adding another avenue of future income.


First off Jason, thanks for replying to my post. To add some additional context I am currently 38 and I have not accounted for inflation in getting to my $11K number and I will explain why. There are two main reason. As we get to retirement I expect our expenses to reduce for example today we have a home mortgage in retirement I would expect to pay that off. Second my wife and I both have 6 figure jobs where we have been contributing to our 401Ks since we have been in our 20's. I also max out my HSA every year and have that money invested. Lastly we have money in Roth IRA's that will also grow. I say this because while I plan to live on our rental income in retirement I am hoping that our other investments can cover the cost of inflation. We also live in Wisconsin where cost of living is relatively low.

I'd still highly suggest you count for inflation in your expectations. If you're right about this, that's a great problem and you are wealth(ier).  If you're wrong, you need to be prepared to get out of retirement and back to working. Or sell off assets for immediate cash. Is this some metric to to not account for?

You'll need closer to the 20k/monthly, slightly more, if you're 38 years old and looking to tap out in the next 1-3 years and live 35-40 years more. Even with things paid down and/or off and probably closer to $27-30k/monthly if you are still going to be decently levered. 


 To add more context I don't plan on retiring anytime soon.  The earliest I would probably retire is 10 years from now.  I think 50 is a pretty reasonable goal.  Currently we have a little over $500K in our retirement accounts so it's not a huge amount but not little either which will continue to grow.  The only thing I don't like about most of this money is that it's locked up until I hit 59.5 years old but I will be happy it's there to help supplement our rental income.  Again thanks for all the perspective.

Post: Expand Or Payoff

Paul Novak
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Wisconsin
  • Posts 146
  • Votes 109
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

@Paul Novak here is the key to your question: nothing grows faster than leveraged equity. Once you get to retirment age you trade your equity for cash flow. You can sell a few to pay off the rest or 1031 them into passive income.

Any property you buy today should appreciate about 4.9% p.a. that's been US average (insert a % you believe is right, I believe Milwaukee may actually beat this number) over the next decades and your downpayment is leveraged 4:1, so that in itself produces a lot more equity over decades than you could ever safe up. Meanwhile you are also deleveraging debt using tenants income, in 30 year (or 25) you have it paid off. 

The more equity you have when you are ready to retire, the more cashflow it will turn into.

So you can optimize for two things: higher priced properties with a bigger potential to appreciate (find the sweet spot, don't go too high) and harness more tenants with higher income to pay higher rents (= higher monthly paydown).

When you start thinking this way, you quickly realize that today's cashflow is not that important as long term equity. Play with a BP rental calculator to simulate. You need to grow your portfolio wide before you grow it deep, which means more properties before more equity.

If you buy one property every year, you'll have 35 by the time you are 68. That's probably some $10 million in equity in todays money. You could do a 1031 into a DST, thats entirely passive.

If you extract 10M equity equity and invest conservativley with a 5 CAP thats $500,000k a year in todays money. I belive the big misunderstanding is to think you you grow your cash flow linear until you reach 11k, like a ramp. It is much better to grow your equity in a compounding way and the transform it into cash flow when you want to.


 What your saying makes a whole lot of sense.  Thank you for taking your time to respond.  I truly appreciate people sharing their perspective that have more experience then I do.

Post: Expand Or Payoff

Paul Novak
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Wisconsin
  • Posts 146
  • Votes 109
Quote from @V.G Jason:

Is that $11k/mo in today's world or in the future's world? If today's world, are you factoring into the cost of inflation for the remainder of your life? Every 10-15 years, assume 40% more in costs. 

An age would help, too.  Depending upon that, and your financial health I would just recommend hanging tight and adding another avenue of future income.


First off Jason, thanks for replying to my post. To add some additional context I am currently 38 and I have not accounted for inflation in getting to my $11K number and I will explain why. There are two main reason. As we get to retirement I expect our expenses to reduce for example today we have a home mortgage in retirement I would expect to pay that off. Second my wife and I both have 6 figure jobs where we have been contributing to our 401Ks since we have been in our 20's. I also max out my HSA every year and have that money invested. Lastly we have money in Roth IRA's that will also grow. I say this because while I plan to live on our rental income in retirement I am hoping that our other investments can cover the cost of inflation. We also live in Wisconsin where cost of living is relatively low.

Post: Expand Or Payoff

Paul Novak
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Wisconsin
  • Posts 146
  • Votes 109

I am debating my next move with my rental business.  I am not that big.  I have 3 total properties and 5 doors, 2 multifamily properties and a single family.  My goal is to retire off of my monthly rental profits and my target number is $11K per month.  To hit that $11K per month I plan on having all my properties paid off.  I would rather have 10 paid off properties that make $11K per month then 30 properties with debt on them.  My current portfolio generates $2,790 per month with debt and would generate $4,900 per month if paid off in full.  This leaves me with needing to pay my current properties off but also needing to purchase more properties to achieve my goal.  Now for my decision:

I won't purchase a rental unless I can cashflow at least $500 per month.  With interest rates, home prices, and rent prices in my market to hit that goal of $500 per month I am looking at purchasing a house around $200K, putting down $100K, and renting it out for around $1,500 per month.  My wife and both make a high income for our area and I feel we could save about $100K per year to keep buying.  If we did a deal using the numbers provided above we could cashflow around that $500 per month.  My other option is to pay off the balance on one of our mortgages and cashflow more.  For example the last rental property we purchased we owe on it about $86K and if paid off would cashflow an additional $600 per month.

Because of our household income I am worried that paying off properties would bring us into tax brackets.  Trying to keep the logic simple if every house you own you can deduct 3 main categories on your taxes (property taxes, depreciation, mortgage interest) if I paid off a house I would make more with only two primary deductions.  If I purchased another house I would have 6 main deductions because each of the three would double up with two houses.  Honestly I don't see the market lowering home prices anytime soon or rates dropping any time soon.  I also am not a fan of timing markets.  I am a fan of saving up and investing when you have the capital to do so, sometimes your timing is good, sometimes it's not, but over the long term you will win.  Does anyone have any advice on how they would proceed?

Post: Rental Financing Feedback/Help

Paul Novak
Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Wisconsin
  • Posts 146
  • Votes 109

I am looking for some advice.  Before I ask my question I wanted to provide background to help with any feedback you could provide.  My wife and I currently have 5 doors, 3 properties so we aren't looking to finance our first rental.  We live in Wisconsin so cost of living is relatively low and the average price of homes we are looking to purchase are between $150K and $225K.  From the properties listed above we cash flow $2750 per month which we are happy with.  Our combined income from our W2 jobs is around $215K per year.  We maintain zero debt other than our mortgages on our house and the mortgages on our rental properties and our overall expenses are relatively low.

With us being in prime income earning years where I believe our income will still make steady increases over the next few years I put more money down on our last property taking a short term hit for long term gains.  To do this I had the money for the down payment on our last property and I put an additional $50K down on the property by taking a loan out against my 401K.  My thought was it increased our monthly cash flow by about $400 per month for the next 30 years, I am paying the interest back to myself vs. the bank, and I am able to pay the 5 year loan back in about 8 months.  

My ultimate goal is to grow our rental business to the point that we are generating $11K per month with fully paid off properties.  Today I track our monthly cash flow along with our maximum monthly cash flow if the properties were paid off in full.  In my mind when our maximum monthly cash flow hits $11K I switch from growth mode to pay off mode.  Hopefully over this time I can recast some of my mortgages to increase cash flow before I get the mortgages fully paid off.

Now for my question. I want to purchase another rental property this coming year. I owe about $20K left on my 401k loan but will have that paid back no later than March. I am wondering what this groups recommendations are for financing. I want to keep my monthly cash flow on the property at $500 per month or more. Even if that means I have to put extra down I am fine with that. I have a HELOC I haven't touched with $90K available to me. I have about $55K availably with my Roth IRA contributions and taxable brokerage. Once I pay my 401K loan back I have $100K available to me in 401K loans we could borrow from my wife and my 401K's or we could just save. With interest rates as high as they are to have cash flow of $500 per month I am estimating I would need to put down about $100K on a nicer property. Am I wrong in thinking that I would rather pay interest back to me using my 401K for financing then borrowing from the bank? The loans take about $500 per paycheck off our pay but to be honest we make enough that we can easily afford that hit and if we didn't have the 401K loans out we would simply be depositing that much into our business every week anyways. If we worked to save the cash it would just delay our investing by maybe a year. I also understand that we could put less down on a property and buy more properties which would increase appreciation, increase debt paydown, and increase tax breaks. With my wife and I having two small children and demanding jobs I am okay with less properties and more cash flow from those properties for our current situation.

Anyone with experience with this that is willing to provide feedback would be much appreciated.