All Forum Posts by: Andrey Y.

Thanks for sharing. Which two syndicators did you invest with (ones that exited) and what was their initial business plan?

 Your misunderstanding Chris, and your close exposure and experience, empathy, that makes it personal and your expressing that rationalization and I understand, I do, but your proposition is illogical and far more destructive and damaging than the disease that is killing as much as 2% who contract it. The disease, very real, the hyperbole of it and mental warfare being waged using it, complete hoax but I understand how psy-op's is hard for many to conceive or understand. 

Some added info, I myself was sick back Feb/March and was in dire straights, all evidence says it was covid but testing was not allowed for covid at the time despite every other test coming back negative. I am lucky, I have a respiratory disorder and advanced experience with such and access to every and any med imaginable, and we threw a lot at it. As it turns out the regiment I and my Dr came up with is now being spoken of as the possible "silver bullet". I do not knock the disease, it can be savage, 1st to say. But exactly what will closing the country do? Will that stop it? Who says that, because the CDC, WHO and literally every virologist does NOT say that, they say this is permanent, it is here, most will eventually contract it. The shut-downs were to slow the contraction so hospitals won't be overwhelmed, and very wisely so, but why is there still this shutdown with hospitals all but empty? 

 VP Dick Cheney said it best "never let a good crisis go to waste". Regardless of anyone political feelings the facts are covid has been "weaponized" and is being abused, everyone from any and every side should be outraged over this for simple fact some things are never ok to use for such, ever. That firstly must stop and stop now, and with that fear will ease so we can focus on those 2-3%, and best allow the 97%+ to live. What is the alternative, shut everything down, all hide in their homes? For how long, 6 months, a year? How will crops be planted, harvested, transported, processed, packaged, delivered? How will your electricity keep operating? You don't seem to understand a long standing lock-down WILL kill people, fact, a lot of people. How was the Tp shortage? Imagine that with chicken, beef, or how about food in general? Think BLM riots are bad, imagine food riots, how hard will you fight to eat? 

As for the Real Estate, yes, it does go up forever, perpetually, up and up and up for eternity, yes, that is how inflation works and as their is more people their will be inflation as their must be more $ into the system for the more persons interacting in the system, this is how the economics of it work. 

Landlord is a term more than a thousand years old, that's how much data their is on this, look up the historical trend, it is up, their is no such thing as "correct", this is a statement of feeling as to what a price basis should be not one of the simple math of it. Properties are assets, they hold a quantifiable value and use, MONEY is not such a thing, it's value is based on the quantity of such int he system and therefore more of it created makes all in the system worth less BUT since a dollar bill can't change it's ink to read "sorry, now $0.97 bill... oh wait, $0.89 bill now" what happens is the assets of value GO UP. Their worth did not increase, the note of exchange medium (money/ dollars) went down in value. 

So yes, real estate "value" will increase, perpetually, forever, in a inclining cyclical wave pattern. 

Riddle Answered: The buying power of 20-40 million people dosn't matter, it is the purchasing power of 150 fund level investors, or even just 10% of that number. On average a very small fund is around $20m in acquisition power, and most small funds are closer to $50m acquisition power, I know this because I have worked in this segment from the inside on acquisition teams so yes 1st hand experience. With that math in hand just call the median $35m, 100 small funds is in excess of $3B. Now we have large institutional buyers set and operational, that never existed 08/09. Their is so much $ sitting looking for good deployment at this very moment, hundreds of billions if not more in capital investment liquidity. 

As for these jobs, exactly where are you plucking these fictional numbers from, 20m jobs just gone, eviscerated never to return ever? But let's go with that for arguments sake. Just like as happened in 08/09 cycle the very actions of investor purchasing and various actions in the down running economy will create new employment potentials. Fact is right now there is a major labor SHORTAGE, business are TRYING to hire left right and center, issue is people are electing not to work, to rather use entitlements vs working, so call call bs on that lame duck argument, our #1 problem is persons not engaging in the workforce out of entitlement mindset, not unemployment. 

Honestly what would be best for this country is a complete cutoff of the entitlement benefits, the only way to end the entitlement mindset is to break it, get back to a work based mindset, get our workforce involvement rate back up. 

08/09 was a collapse of the very mechanisms and systems themselves that facilitated economic activity, with inflated inventory, that is simply not the case what so ever here, we have shortages and persons electing out of workforce by in large, saying they don't want to do xyz, not that their isnt jobs available just not the jobs they want to do. This is more a social crisis than an economic one. Again, their is mass hiring efforts happening now, today, all over, and people choosing not to do the work, ask any electrician, plumber, carpenter, home builder, medical clinic, dentist and so on and so fourth, the "trades" are struggling severely with labor shortages. So how quick can millions of jobs get "made", well they already exist so I say about 72hrs if entitlements to not work are cut and persons forced to engage into the workforce. Focus entitlements for those who legitimately CANT work not those who choose not to unless they can do what they want. 

@Joe Splitrock I am betting all on this down turn. I have sold my primary and taken out all the equity and my other real estate investments are currently on the market. We are saving every penny we have and believe it or not will be saving 100k in cash in 2020. I am not rich. My wife and I both work 9-5's. I am a regular middle class guy, but I am trying to change that and become financially free. I believe that this can be done in the next 10 years and this downturn will give us an amazing start. Why would you want to buy a deal now when you can get the same deal for 50% less 2021. Yes timing the market is impossible and you can never buy at the dead bottom, but this is just my opinion. We are at the top of the cycle right now and covid is going to correct the stock market and the real estate market in the next year. Every one has there own opinion, but 10% does not even scratch the surface of whats about to happen. If Im wrong then Im wrong Im going to wait it out and see what happens for the next 6 months or so. If the economic data or more stimulus changes things, then I will have to readjust my plans and move forward.    

I keep hearing many investors speak of the housing market and stock market as if we are in a normal situation. Everything is great and the stimulus has solved all of the problems that a global pandemic has created. Take advantage of the situation and buy as many deals as you can before its to late. There are great deals in stocks that you should be pouncing on to ride the market to the new highs of 2021 and 2022. Trump looking good to get reelected will take us to places we have never been before with the US economy. Its really confusing and hard to believe that more people aren't sounding the alarm bells and getting ready for whats to come. Run while you can. This is just my opinion and everybody has there own way. I am not trying to offend anyone, and people must do what they feel is the right with there investment plans and strategies. Let me explain why are some of the reasons I think that the US economy is not ok, and we are up for some major pain to come.
 
Forbearance - Most inventors think that most banks are going to wrap your missed payments to the back end of your loan and you will not have to pay this until the end of your loan. So no big deal just 6 more payments and the loan will get paid off, but that is not the entire story. There are many private lenders who do not have to keep up good appearances in the public eye like the big banks do. They are going to require that the missed payments be paid all at once. With the majority of Americans living paycheck to paycheck this is just not going to be possible for them, and they will end up defaulting which will lead to a huge influx of foreclosures.

Brick and Mortar Jobs - Consumer confidence is at an all time low for going into buildings and doing business. This includes so many types of business' its very hard to name them all. All types of retail, hotels, restaurants, home goods, and small local business', to name a few. Many states have opened then shut down again and will not make the same mistake twice. This shut down will be much worse than the first because politicians will not want to look foolish if they reopen again and the numbers start to climb like they did the first time. With consumers not going out, how many people that are currently unemployed will get there jobs back. How could people think that this will have no effect at all on the US economy and that things will return to normal very soon. As soon as we get a vaccine or the numbers start trending lower everything will get right back to the way it was and business will be booming again in the US. This is a complicated process that will take years to come back from and In my opinion it has change the face of the way we do business forever.  

Inventory - With the above mentioned forbearance we are going to see huge amount of defaults. This is going to create a huge amount of inventory and the market will have no choice but to correct. Right now things look GREAT because of low inventory. This is causing a huge demand for housing because people are not selling like they were before covid, but when a flood of foreclosures hit the market things will shift. The banks are already preparing for this and have set aside billions to prepare for the coming flood of defaults and foreclosures.

Stimulus - Its going to dry up eventually, do you think they can keep pumping money into the market forever. When the bonus unemployment runs out and the bail outs stop there is going to be some pain. This is inevitable and the cheering bulls will soon start to change there tune and be heading for the hills.

RMBS and CMBS - this is a long complicated subject in itself, to long to list here and I am no expert, but all of these topics above are connected to mortgage backed securities. The government is not stepping in and helping the private lenders the way there helping Fanny and Freddie and once the banks start to sound the alarm bells the truth will come out and the market will correct.

Thanks for listening to my warning and rant. In my opinion if you can hold off or pass on some maybe marginal deals for the next few moths you should start to see more of the truth of the pain to come. Don't follow the masses. They are running straight off of a cliff and to me the signs are so obvious its hard not to see them. After all we are still in a global pandemic. Even though many people are trying to act like nothing is different, there going to have to face reality sooner or later, things have change and will take years to get back to the way they were before. Thanks Chris Gawlik

@Zane O. - The Enclave

@Scott R. - yes it is:)

@Joshua Braskett - thank you!

@Charles Brooks - thank you, I will send you a pm!

*Sorry to everyone for the delay.  I only received a notification that someone commented when Charles posted!

 The reason Cozy takes 5 days is that the transaction is free. The Avail 3 day option costs the tenant $2.75 per month per payment. I think Cozy lets you charge similar for three day payments. Also be aware that Cozy and Apartments.com are merging and they are now saying landlords will get faster ACH deposits. It looks like CoStar is finally putting some effort into improving Cozy. 

 I'm still satisfied with Avail. I've added another property since the thread started and they've given me no reason to change. As previously stated, I just wish the ACH payments were faster to hit my account. Other than that, it's been working great. 

@Marcus Holloway Thank you for your input. I went ahead and signed up with Avail. One big reason for joining them is their customer service. I feel like their customer service is the best. I look forward to sharing my experiences in the future with other like minded investors on BP. Thank you once again!