@Jason Malabute You also have to consider that the underlying asset is growing in value and the rental income should increase every year or two (depending on current price and local market.) The most successful clients that I work with not only look at cash flow, cap rate, and COC ROI... they also consider IRR (internal rate of return) over a number of years. IRR is figured with discount rate (original equity position from buying under market,) cash flow (leveraged or not,) and equity growth over a number of years. Let's look at an example.
Year 1. Purchased a home at $90k for $22,000 after inspection, down payment, closing costs, minor repairs, and cleaning. The home is valued at $115k. This makes the discount rate $25k from the very beginning.
You rent the property at $1,100/mo for a year and after all expenses, you finish the year with $1,200 cash flow. This is not a very good COC ROI (about 5.45%.) That value of the home is now around $118,500 (about 3% appreciation.)
Year 2. The tenant stays (no vacancy or tenant placement fees) and the rent is raised to $1,125/mo.
You finish the year after all expenses with $2,100 in cash flow. COC ROI is better this year with the rental increase and stable performance. Year 2 COC ROI comes out to about 9.54% for the year. The value of the home has risen to $122,500 (about 3.4% appreciation.) Overall average is $3,225 cash flow over 2 years or an average COC ROI of 7.33%
Year 3. The tenant decides to move. You lose 2 months of rent (about $1,400 in mortgage payments,) spent $1,500 getting it rent ready again, and triggered a tenant placement fee equal to 1 months rent.
The home is rented this term at $1,150/mo. Year 3 only cash flows about -$1,650 (yes, negative) or a COC ROI of -.075%. The home's value has risen to $125,000 (about 2% appreciation.)
Year 4. The tenant stays and the market will not bear another rent increase this year. Total cash flow for the year ends up being $2,400 (10.9% COC ROI.) The value of the home rises to $129,000 (about 3.2% increase.)
Year 5. The tenant stays again and the rent increases again to $1,175. Total cash flow for the year ends up being $2,600 (11.8% COC ROI.) Value of the home increase to $132,500 (2.7% increase.)
Year 6. The tenant finally decides to move and you decide to sell the home. You still have an unpaid balance of $68,000 owed to the bank and you have about $4,000 in cleaning, repairs, and upgrades to sell it at the top of the retail market. The home is listed at $142,000 but ends up selling for $137,000. During this time you pay 4 mortgage payments totaling another $2,500.
Here's the total outlay in 5 years of owning this home.
Initial Discount Rate
$25,000
Cash flow
$1,200
$2,100
-$1,650
$2,400
$2,600
= $6,650 total over 5 years. Average of $1,330/year or 6.04% COC ROI
Appreciation
$22,000 (100% leveraged appreciation)
Principal Paydown
$2,000
Total = $25,000 + $6,650 + $22,000 + $2,000 = $55,650 profit (before selling costs and taxes.)
IRR = $56,500/$22,000 = 256.8% = annualized over 5 years = 51.3% averaged IRR annually
You can see that the original discount rate and the appreciation are the biggest numbers here. The longer that you hold the property, the more powerful the principal paydown can become a factor, but you will likely be refinancing too often for it to add up.
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With that being laid out... this is not a "cash flow" strategy. It's a mid-term hold strategy that capitalizes on the appreciation (the largest gain on a good leveraged investment.)
Instead of selling, most of my investors are continuing to hold. You do not have to sell the home to access the equity. Depending on your lender... you could likely access 75%-80% of this equity growth (through a refinance) to purchase 2 more similar performing homes and keep the current asset to leverage it's equity growth again in the future.
At three performing homes, you should be able to purchase another home like this every couple of years. Once you get to seven performing homes, you can likely purchase one every year. At about 12 homes, you should be able to purchase 2 homes every year.
This strategy reinvests the profits and compounds several factors and leverages them for maximum growth potential. You can build a million dollar portfolio in about 14 or 15 years (about homes) with only a $27,000 initial investment (including $5,000 available for reserves.) To expedite this, most investors continue to add personal funds to grow their portfolios much faster. Here's the outlay of this kind of portfolio growth.
Year 1-3 = 1 home
Year 4-5 = 2 homes
Year 6-8 = 3 homes
Year 9-10 = 4 homes
Year 11-12= 5 homes
Year 13-14 = 6 homes
Year 15 = 8 homes
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To hit $200/mo cash flow, you will likely need to hold a $650/mo rental in all cash or have a rental of $2,200/mo that is leveraged with a mortgage payment (not including ins/tax) of $1000/mo or less (around $200k.)
I just put a $2,000/mo rental on the market in Bates/Hendricks that will come pretty close to these numbers, but I believe that the owner is refinancing a little over $200k, so he may not quite hit the $200/mo range and he's leaving about $40k in the home. His COC ROI is only going to be about 5% the first year, but that home should climb in value around $10k each year (25% ROI on leveraged equity increase ($10k/$40k.))
Hope that stimulates some thoughts.