@Jay Hinrichs @Duriel Taylor
Always one of the assessments we spend some time and energy on in the beginning of a project:
Do we want to take on the entitlement/political process risk on X project?
One of the observations I make about other developers and other projects is whether taking on that particular project is coherent with the political risks. If I observe someone is hell bent on taking on an impossible project, it makes a statement about their skill and discipline as a developer.
This is a a learned skill, usually by being burned by a deal or city, and taking a loss either early or late in a projects lifecycle. In the early part of my career as an APM, I thought every deal was doable, and that there was no deal that I couldn't make work. After a few years working for others, you will see that in fact, that's not true.
Here on BP, many folks propose to move from investment/flipping to development, and part of what's missed in that type of transition is the learning on someone else's dime, the learning of the development process in a disciplined, rigorous, professional manner. I've seen too many projects (including some of my own) lose money because someone got it in their head: that they loved this deal, or could make this particular deal work, or loved working in X city, and want to do a deal there. It's just not true, you have to be quite brutal in your assessment of a deal's viability.
This is why in our UTH family townhome rental housing projects, we only work on already zoned sites. We have done major entitlement projects, and made a lot of money doing it. We know how to entitle in California, the toughest state in the nation to process entitlements. The risks are huge, and the payoffs are too, mostly. And it's the "mostly" part that gets you. We want a predictable pipeline of projects, that we can acquire, build, rent, and sell/hold. So we work to eliminate rezone, GPA, subdivision approvals entirely.
This is why getting educated in every way possible is so valuable, read everything possible, every book, every video, every post, take classes, pay for professional training, do it all.
The other thing that people miss: hire an advisor for your development career or specific project, or bring on a seasoned JV partner. It's so valuable, but people get it in their heads that because they know how to flip houses or buy and value add apartment deals, that this somehow qualifies them to step into the role as a developer. I advised a guy who reached out to me for help on a development deal, where he knew nothing about development, and was asking really basic questions. I told him: we can help you, but the amount of help you need can't be given via BP posts or email, and that he could pay our company to provide real estate development consulting. He declined based on it costing too much, to which I responded, we can make you 10 times the amount of our consulting fees, by saving you from major costly mistakes or designing a more valuable building to sell when complete. He declined, which is his prerogative, but I will tell you this: it's a mistake. It's a mistake not to get the best, most powerful help possible. Take it from me, a 34 years seasoned developer, I've spent a lot of money paying into the "experience" bank account, way more that if I'd hired a seasoned pro to advise me. Great help, the best help and advice, is NEVER free.
The entitlement, zoning, subdivision, political process will kill you if you don't know what your doing. The developers who worked on the project Jay mentioned in his post, would all tell you that.
~ Scott