Rental Property Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2015 · 131 posts · 62 votes
Afternoon BP,
After news broke of Amazon moving forward on finding a new HQ, I got really excited for the possibility of a new/increased opportunity in a new area. I currently own and rent in Central Florida, but wouldn't mind investing elsewhere if the opportunity was right.
I lived in Seattle for 2 years and saw (have seen) what Amazon/Microsoft did not only for the job market, but rent as well.
I know the Triangle in NC was thrown around as a hopeful location, but it's far too early to tell where it's going.
My question to the community is where/when do you really start to dig into the surrounding area that will become the new site and how do you as an investor stay up to date on what's happening with a big build like an Amazon HQ2?
With the fact that Uber, Google, Microsoft, Apple and Autodesk already have strongholds here, thanks in part to Carnegie Mellon University's AI developments, I can see our city welcoming Amazon's 2nd HQ. Amazon is already here with a fulfillment/distribution center and our Mayor, Bill Peduto, is poised to recommend several sites that could accommodate Amazon's requirements: software development talent, near an airport of which we have Pittsburgh Int'l Airport, highway systems and while the city itself houses 306,500 people the greater metro area of 2.36 million is well within Amazon's 1mil. requirement. Pittsburgh is also poised to add incentives besides having a variety of available sites, to tax breaks/grants and workforce training not to mention that Pittsburgh is a hub for robotic, technical and manufacturing advancements. Since we have the talent, the land and the commitment to welcome Amazon's vision, I see Pittsburgh a strong candidate for it's future investment.
Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
9y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
@Ryan E. What is confirmation bias? I guess I could have googled it in the time it took me to type this.
The tendency to find information that confirms your existing opinions. None of us know where Amazon will choose. Many folks have a vested interest in them choosing a specific location. So there is a tendency to find evidence that supports those opinions. Even if there is other evidence that more strongly supports a different opinion.
In the end I think the biggest factor is government subsidy. If they just wanted to pick a city, they wouldn't announce it in that way and travel around to meet officials. They'd just rent some real estate and setup shop. They want officials to give them money and tax breaks.
Try to think about this through Amazon's lens. What does Amazon NEED?
NEED
They need LOTS of tech people, and QUICKLY. What cities have that? Not Detroit
They need to be able to RECRUIT to areas that will draw talent (whether you like Seattle or not, you can argue its an acquired taste -- costly and not sunny)
They need LOTS of space and they need to be able to scale quickly
They need something this new location can offer that dreary Seattle cannot (Sun and lower cost of living)
WANT
Amazon would love to get massive tax credits
Amazon would love to get cheap talent right out of school.
So given this criteria, I believe Dallas, Austin, North Carolina, Denver, Orlando would be likely targets.
BONUS FOR AUSTIN: Amazon just bought Whole Foods. I used to live in Austin and so I know Whole Foods holds leases on EMPTY office space all over downtown.
Detroit is bad for recruiting
Chicago is not great for tech
THINK like Amazon and you will win.
Chicago has lots of Tech and youngsters love living in this city. Don’t count us out yet. 😁
Investor · Salt Lake City, UT · Member since 2016 · 287 posts · 270 votes
8y
I’ve been reading a lot of articles on this and I think Chicago has a really good chance of landing HQ2. It seems to have everything on Amazon’s punchlist.
I’ve been reading a lot of articles on this and I think Chicago has a really good chance of landing HQ2. It seems to have everything on Amazon’s punchlist.
I’m hardly an investor so what do I know (only on my 1st project now), but Chicago has so many neighborhoods that I can’t imagine it making prices go up drastically in 1 spot, at least if they choose a downtown building for the campus. I’m already priced out of investing in “cool” neighborhoods like Lincoln Park and the Loop anyway. Have a great weekend!
Real Estate Consultant · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 720 posts · 439 votes
8y
@Leslie Voegtlin , I will love to agree with you on a change in pricing in that particular neighborhood where Amazon would come, however, here is what is really going on:
In West Loop, prices went up 20% over the rest of the city since Google has been announced to move in, and since McDonalds headquarters have started getting build in West Loop, West Loop has no inventory, all the new construction is priced at a million $ + and pricing continues to climb a lot faster than any other neighborhood in the city.
You see, the prices and the rent have gone up because everyone that showed up to work for Google makes a good living and they want to live where they work, so the demand added to the already hot location, automatically increased the prices. Same with McDonald's. This being the World Headquarter, you are getting executives coming to live here, a large number of high earners buying in a small area.
With Amazon, will happen the exact same. Whatever it will build, it will attract luxury builders and the high earners, and then will show up restaurants, boutique, etc, the money will pour in the neighborhood.
@Leslie Voegtlin , I will love to agree with you on a change in pricing in that particular neighborhood where Amazon would come, however, here is what is really going on:
In West Loop, prices went up 20% over the rest of the city since Google has been announced to move in, and since McDonalds headquarters have started getting build in West Loop, West Loop has no inventory, all the new construction is priced at a million $ + and pricing continues to climb a lot faster than any other neighborhood in the city.
You see, the prices and the rent have gone up because everyone that showed up to work for Google makes a good living and they want to live where they work, so the demand added to the already hot location, automatically increased the prices. Same with McDonald's. This being the World Headquarter, you are getting executives coming to live here, a large number of high earners buying in a small area.
With Amazon, will happen the exact same. Whatever it will build, it will attract luxury builders and the high earners, and then will show up restaurants, boutique, etc, the money will pour in the neighborhood.
Hi Lumi!!! Great to see you are on Bigger Pockets! Hope you and your family are well. - Leslie
Investor · Princeton, TX · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
It is interesting that San Antonio dropped their bid saying they believe Amazon has already decided the location and is just playing games to get the best incentive package.
Flipper/Rehabber · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 732 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
It is interesting that San Antonio dropped their bid saying they believe Amazon has already decided the location and is just playing games to get the best incentive package.
That is interesting. You would think it wouldn't take them too long to decide. Maybe San Antonio is right. I keep hearing they will only go to where they can get great incentives..which I could see of course. They are a massive company and would bring many high paying jobs to an area.
Real Estate Agent · Belmar, NJ · Member since 2017 · 370 posts · 200 votes
8y
Newark, NJ is also an option for them which would be incredible for investors that bet on appreciation in areas like Newark, Kearny, and the Oranges. Wherever they go... prices will go BOOM.
Real Estate Investor · Miami, FL · Member since 2013 · 474 posts · 214 votes
8y
It's a fool's errand trying to figure where Amazon HQ2 will end up. In the coming months I imagine Amazon will narrow down to a handful of options (if they haven't already done so) and conduct site visits, further negotiations, etc. But aside from any folks who may be privy to such info, it's all just a fun guessing game.
So instead of picking a winner, let's cast a wide net and figure there's a high probability that HQ2 ends up in one of the following handful of metros: Atlanta, Philly, Chicago, Boston, Austin, Denver, Dallas, DC. These figure to be the frontrunners in the US for many analysts. So which REI markets would HQ2 impact the most? Remember, many Seattleites blame (or in REI I guess celebrate) Amazon for much of the skyrocketing prices, along with traffic/congestion, etc, over the past 15 years or so. The potential impact of HQ2 is enormous.
Which market do you think presents the most opportunities for investment should HQ2 locate in that city/region?
Flipper/Rehabber · Dallas, TX · Member since 2017 · 174 posts · 157 votes
8y
@maxwell Lee
From what I've read on the subject looks like Dallas is at the top of the list and that's where I'm hoping the decide to go mostly because I'm planning on investing in the DFW area anyways but you are right it' all speculation at this point and the big boys will buy all the best stuff before us normal folk find out where they decide my plan is simple buy what I can as close as I can that can at least float itself as a rental and hope for the best lol
Real Estate Agent · Cupertino, CA · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
Wait til the decision is finalized. Just because they announce it does not mean they will build it. With Amzn it is a lot of hot gas and not much follow up. There is plenty of time to start looking after you see the construction started.
I shared a leased Amzn building as a realtor in Silicon Valley for 2 years. Completely jam packed then one day parking lot was near empty-a major layoff. Amzn is not the kind of company employees will be loyal to. May be Jeff is doing fine. Good for him not the rest of employees. This is Silicon Valley high tech center crème of the crop phd, firmware developers, and international marketing. Jeff is counting on their talents to make Jeff's dream come true.
Investor · Princeton, TX · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
@Sam Shueh There is absolutely a huge difference between how people at their headquarters are treated compared to how people in their fulfillment centers are treated.